Because the regular season is way too long, because the West is beyond every basketball fan’s wildest dreams, because the Mark Cuban/Rick Carlisle/Dirk Nowitzki train has been chugging along longer than any organizational foundation outside of San Antonio and because Rajon Rondo attracts blame like super models attract teenage boys. These are among the many reasons the collective basketball universe has counted Dallas out with four weeks remaining in the regular season.
But what if it isn’t too late? What if Dallas is, well, fine?
The Mavericks beat down the otherwise scorching Clippers, 129-99 on Friday. The win moves Dallas to 42-25, good enough for sixth place in the crowded West, despite playing near-.500 ball since the heavily-criticized Rondo trade in December. In short, the Mavericks have been a shell of the offensive juggernaut they were prior to the deal with Boston — when they were averaging upward of 113 points per 100 possessions and threatening the record books for the most efficient offense ever.
While the Rondo acquisition has made Dallas a stronger defensive and rebounding team — which was the point — its downright average scoring output over Rondo’s 31 games with the team (102 offensive rating with Rondo on the floor) is nerve wrecking heading into postseason play.
But instead of focusing on Rondo for the sake of busting the former All-Star’s balls, let’s look at the Mavericks’ big acquisition from the summer, Chandler Parsons. He’s a player who many thought bumped Dallas up a notch in the West when they stole him from rival Houston.
Parsons has started 56 out of a possible 77 games for Dallas, missing 27 percent of the year. When Parsons plays, Dallas is 37-20, which is a winning percentage of 64.9 percent that projects out to 53 wins. Dallas is scoring 109.5 points per 100 possessions when Parsons is on the floor and with a net rating of +6.0.
Since the Rondo acquisition, Parsons has played in 31 of a possible 39 games: Dallas is 18-13 with him and 4-4 without him. That’s not incredible — the team’s offensive and net rating definitely fall off over this stretch — but how much of that stems from the pains of acclimating such a pivotal player on the fly (Rondo) while simultaneously losing such a critical starter (Parsons) for games at a time?
My hypothesis: Rondo is not a perfect fit for what the Mavericks want to do, but Carlisle, Nowitzki and company are all pros, and they are trying to make it work amidst a hellish schedule and with spotty health. That takes time.
Dallas was probably not going to win a championship this season, and perhaps the Rondo trade, a gamble from the start, wasn’t going to change that. But let’s just see what happens.
Tyson Chandler, Nowitzki, Parsons, Rondo and Monta Ellis have only shared the floor together for 307 minutes this season over just 20 games. That’s not enough time.
Dallas was counted out before a single whistle blew against San Antonio last postseason, and they ended up being the toughest challenge the Spurs got all spring.
Beating the Blake Griffin-less Clippers at home in March doesn’t mean the Mavericks are a Finals contender or anything. They got destroyed by the Cavaliers at home only a few days ago. But Parsons’ cool 22 points and five 3s, part of a 16-for-28 3-point barrage by Dallas, was fun as hell. The Mavericks are fun as hell.
I’m going to keep watching this team until they run out of games. Aren’t you?
