Oklahoma City’s season has been complicated by injuries from the beginning. Kevin Durant has missed approximately half the season with foot/ankle injuries, and MVP candidate Russell Westbrook has missed 16 games with various injuries. Now, forward Serge Ibaka is out indefinitely with knee soreness.
It’s unclear how many games Ibaka will miss, but with Durant still out and the Thunder battling New Orleans for the eighth seed in the West, any missed time will be critical.
If Ibaka misses an extended period of time, it wouldn’t necessarily derail the Thunder’s season. Durant should be back soon, and OKC would have two of the best five players in the league playing together every game. The addition of Enes Kanter can fill some of Ibaka’s void, though neither Kanter nor Steven Adams can stretch the floor like Ibaka.
The Thunder have been one of the unluckiest teams in the league when it comes to injuries this season. When OKC made the Finals in 2012, it looked as if they would dominate the league the rest of the decade. Since then, Westbrook and Ibaka were both hurt during playoff runs in 2013 and 2014 respectively, and the Thunder have failed to reach the Finals since they lost to Miami.
It’s hard not to bring up the James Harden trade when discussing Oklahoma City’s championship window. It’s also easy to play the “what if” game with this franchise, and I imagine we’ll be doing that in the future if OKC can’t win a title.
James Harden is playing the best basketball of his career for Houston. When OKC made the Finals in 2012, Harden and Westbrook were both playing great, but the 2012 versions of both players pale in comparison to how they’re playing this season. It’s probably not a stretch to say an OKC team with Westbrook, Harden, and Durant would be the favorite to win the NBA title this year.
Which brings us back to Serge Ibaka and another “what if” scenario. What if Sam Presti had traded Ibaka instead of Harden? Would the Thunder be better off today, or would the lack of an inside scorer be detrimental?
While Harden and Westbrook have vastly improved in the last couple of seasons, Ibaka’s game has plateaued.
Ibaka hasn’t had a bad year statistically, but he also hasn’t played to the level that the Thunder needs to win the West. He’s averaging 14.3 points per game, which is down from 15.1 in 2014. His average rebounds have dropped from 8.8 to 7.8, and his field goal percentage has dipped from 53.6% to 47.6%.
Offensively, Ibaka has transitioned into a stretch four. His post moves haven’t improved in the last few seasons, and as a result he has taken more threes this year than he did in his first four seasons combined.
Ibaka is clearly the third option for OKC, and Sam Presti banked on him becoming what Chris Bosh was for Miami during their run the last four years. Ibaka is still an elite interior defender, but the Thunder have relied on Westbrook for nearly everything on offense. Westbrook, by the way, currently has a usage rate of 38, which would be the third highest in NBA history behind Kobe Bryant in 2005-06 (38.74), and Michael Jordan in 1986-87 (38.29).
Defensively, Ibaka is still a really solid rim protector, but even his blocks per game average has dropped each year since the 2011-12 season. His overall game has slightly regressed, and while that may be in part to Scott Brooks being unaware of how to utilize his skills properly, it’s still alarming for the franchise for the future.
With about a month left in the regular season, I certainly feel more comfortable siding with Oklahoma City to make the playoffs over New Orleans. Barring any setbacks, Durant should be back in a week or so, and the combination of Durant and Westbrook will make up for the absence of Ibaka.
However, even if the Thunder make the playoffs, they will likely face top seeded Golden State in the first round. If OKC loses in round one, I imagine at least one major change happens with the team.
The likeliest scenario is head coach Scott Brooks being fired. Brooks has the players’ support, but shortcomings in the playoffs in three straight seasons might be hard to ignore for Presti.
Another scenario that’s less likely but still plausible is the Thunder trading Ibaka in the summer. At this point, I’m not sure what type of return OKC can get for Ibaka, but he would still be a valuable asset to a number of teams this summer. His salary is just over $12 million, and he wouldn’t be a free agent until the summer of 2017.
There’s also the possibility of Oklahoma City running it back and hoping for better luck with injuries next season. When healthy, this is still one of the best teams in the league. Ibaka will be 26 next season, and he’s still young enough that bailing on him might be premature.
Even with a young nucleus and two of the best five players in the NBA, the Thunder’s championship window might be quickly fading away. They aren’t winning a title without Serge Ibaka, but maybe they can’t win one with him as their third best player. Either way, the next two months will be crucial for the future of the Oklahoma City Thunder franchise.
