Houston Rockets’ guard Patrick Beverley has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2014-15 NBA season, including the playoffs, after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left wrist. On the surface, this looks like a devastating injury, kind of like Wesley Matthew’s season-ending injury in Portland, but it shouldn’t be. Yes, Beverley has nicely crafted out a niche, and reputation, as the team’s bulldog and heart of one of the League’s top-10 defenses. In reality, Beverley sits in the 24th spot among his constituents at point guard in Defensive Real Plus-Minus.
Beverley may be listed as a “point guard”, but the Rockets’ offense is run through a “point guard” in a shooting guard’s body in James Harden. The bearded, legitimate MVP candidate leads Houston in assists this season dishing out 522 assists, to just 192 for Beverley. On the defensive end, Harden has amassed 144 steals, to 59 for Beverley. Harden has a reputation for being a liability on this end of the floor, but he’s improved this season; Harden currently sits at 16th among shooting guards in DRPM with a score of .72. (I’d be remised if I didn’t mention Harden is also first in Offensive Real Plus Minus among shooting guards at 7.94). Harden’s USG% has also risen to an MVP-esque level at 31.4 percent, up from 27.8 a season ago. Essentially, Harden has the keys to Houston’s ignition, and this superstar-eccentric approach is working.
It didn’t seem like it would be a big deal at the time of the deal, but Houston general manager Daryl Morey stealthily fleeced the Sacramento Kings before the 2014-15 NBA season began when Morey sent forward journeyman Alonzo Gee to the Kings for Jason Terry and two second-round picks. Maybe Morey knew Terry would mesh nicely next to Harden, at least in a back-up point guard capacity, and that gamble paid dividends for the Rockets this season. The Rockets need to surround Harden with shooters on the perimeter to give him more room to operate in the restricted area, and Terry fills that role better than Beverley does. Terry’s played in 71 games for the Rockets this season, with Beverley just appearing in 56 for the team, so Terry’s insertion into the starting lineup could have made sense even with a healthy Beverley. The two-man game of Terry and Harden has accumulated an offensive rating of 107 and a defensive rating of 100.8, per NBA.com; the Beverley-Harden two-man game has accumulated a 106 ORtg and 103 DRtg, so the former has the edge, even with the latter playing a bit more minutes together. Houston loves to shoot 3s, but the current roster makeup doesn’t feature an abundance of players who can shoot them at an above-average clip; Terry is one of the players who can as the former Arizona Wildcat is shooting 38.3 percent from deep this season with Beverley stagnating in the league-average range of 35 percent.
HOUSTON, TX – MARCH 21: Jason Terry #31, Patrick Beverley #2 and head coach Kevin McHale of the Houston Rockets walk off the court after the Rockets were defeated by the Phoenix Suns 117-102 at the Toyota Center on March 21, 2015 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)
Although the loss of Beverley looks like it shouldn’t hurt Houston’s starting five, his absence could be a lot more problematic for a bench unit that certainly be described as “deep”. Terry has to stay healthy, and at 37 years old, you never know. The Rockets traded away the young, exciting gunner Isiah Canaan to Philadelphia in a trade-deadline deal that also netted them K.J. McDaniels (more on the insane dunker later) and acquired the veteran Pablo Prigioni from the New York Knicks to take fill the spot left behind by Canaan. Houston has also recalled the lengthy, defensive-minded Nick Johnson last month from the D-League to use with Prigioni in the backup point guard spot. But the Rockets can survive this lack of depth, Johnson and Harden on the floor together has produced a 107.6 ORtg and a 106.4 DRtg, with Prigioni and Harden producing a 108.7 ORtg and a 106.7 DRtg together. Rockets’ head coach Kevin McHale also has a “wildcard” of sorts with Corey Brewer who can share the floor with Harden at the two spot, especially come playoff time, as the Brewer and Harden two-man game has an ORtg of 113 and a DRtg of 101.6. So, McHale has options behind Terry, even if they not be “traditional” ones.
When the Rockets gambled away draft-night steal Chandler Parsons to Dallas, it looked like the team could be in a lot of trouble finding his replacement. But they didn’t, and it came in the form of the pesky, long wing Trevor Ariza. The former UCLA Bruin may not be a “star” like Harden and Howard, but his play has been huge for Houston this season. The three-man group of Ariza, Harden and Howard has terrorized opposing teams in a manner “Jigsaw” from the SAW movies would appreciate; in 781 minutes together, the trio have an ORtg of 108.1 with a DRtg of 97.6. Ariza has been an upgrade over Parsons individually speaking, too, as Ariza is 11th in DRPM with Parsons sitting at a less-than-stellar 34th, even with Ariza shooting below-average from deep this season.
If we’re looking at Brewer as the veteran “wildcard” off the bench, McDaniels should probably be considered as the rookie “wildcard” off the bench for Houston. Like Brewer, McDaniels can’t shoot, and that’s a problem in today’s NBA. But shooting isn’t everything, especially for a role player off the bench like Brewer, and possibly, McDaniels, too. McDaniels has only played in 18 minutes with Houston since being dealt there at the Trade Deadline as McHale has used a veteran-heavy rotation with the team trying to win-now, which is understandable. Still, McDaniels showed a lot of promise in the first-half of the season in Philly, and with Beverley out of commission, it seems like now would be the time to experiment playing McDaniels with Harden in the backcourt before the playoffs start, as the rookie from Clemson may be somebody McHale has to turn to if even just *one* more injury comes out of his current guard rotation. At the very least, McDaniels is shooting 31 percent on his corner 3s this season, which isn’t great, but that’s ok for a fourth-guard off the bench. Especially when you take into account his length and vertical to possibly make some critical blocks, averaging 1.9 per 36 minutes, come playoff time or even lockdown opposing backup, smaller guards.
Houston isn’t deep, but they still have options. Yes, they have less options with Beverley out for the rest of the season, including the postseason, but what they have is good enough to keep them in “pseudo” contention in the Western Conference; the team currently sits in the No. 2 seed in the playoff picture, are allowing 97.2 points per 100 possessions at home and are 7th in DRtg as a team. The Rockets are an overachieving team, with one of the League’s best players, and survived, flourished even, without Howard for months of the season. So an injury to a border-line starter in Beverley isn’t going to break this team because it seems like nothing will.
