The Best Game 2 Regression Candidates

It’s early. One game is too small a sample size. We are not supposed to overreact after Game 1 of a series. As each first round matchup heads into its second game, however, it’s important to point out regression candidates — the players that either overachieved or underachieved in the first game. These quote-unquote X-Factors can be the difference between a favorite hanging on to its home court advantage or the road team splitting the series at one game apiece.

Golden State 1, New Orleans 0 — Regression Candidate: Klay Thompson (Up)

New Orleans rotated defenders on Curry all game long — hounding him with Norris Cole 35 feet from the basket, and bodying him with Eric Gordon and Jrue Holiday. This freed Thompson to work on secondary perimeter defenders, and against a defense offering him a fraction of its attention.

On many nights, Thompson crushes opponents that fail to keep track of him. But the All-Star shooting guard managed just 35 percent shooting (6-17 FGA) on Saturday, and was just 6 for 9 from the line. Thompson finished with 21 points and three assists, as the Warriors scored 106 points and led the entire way — despite an Anthony Davis-induced scare toward the end. But Thompson’s five turnovers and cold shooting night were underwhelming.

Thompson is the third-best player on the floor. Look for him to lift that shooting percentage back above 50 percent the rest of the series — perhaps just three more games.

Also, it should be noting how important the health of Tyreke Evans is moving forward for New Orleans. The Pellies’ best backcourt play-maker played just 12 minutes before suffering a bone bruise in his left knee against the Warriors. If Evans can’t go on Monday, it is likely the Pelicans will head back to New Orleans down 0-2.

Houston 1, Dallas 0 — Regression Candidate: Monta Ellis (Up)

We’ve heard it straight from the camel’s mouth that Monta Ellis have it all. If that’s true, though, now would be a really good time for him to show it.

Here’s what we know about Dallas. Dirk Nowitzki is no longer the guy who can single-handily will a team to victory; his five ghastly turnovers on Saturday revealed the future Hall of Famer is trying to do too much. Rajon Rondo, forever the enigma, typically makes just as many plays as his limited scoring abilities take away. Tyson Chandler and Chandler Parsons are fine talents, but are ultimately side dishes to the main course — without a well-cooked entrée, they’re simply not enough.

That leaves Ellis, the lone scoring threat in the prime of his career, capable of getting his shot against just about anybody. Saturday was a dud for Ellis, however, as he missed 11 of 16 shots from the field. Dallas got its butt kicked against Houston. For that not to happen again, they need Ellis to do more than show up — they need him to thrive. And considering there is no Patrick Beverly in this series, Ellis needs to rise to the occasion.

Los Angeles 1, San Antonio 0 — Regression Candidate: Jamal Crawford (Down)

The obvious answer here would be to pick a Spur — any Spur. San Antonio was uncharacteristically tepid shooting all over the floor (.366/.303/.538), and frankly that will not happen again. Even if Tony Parker is banged up the rest of the way, Gregg Popovich isn’t too proud to give Patty Mills and Cory Joseph more minutes. The Spurs machine will keep churning.

No, I’m more interested in what Crawford does over the duration of this series. Crawford benefited from Sunday’s frantic pace, canning 7 of 10 from the field for 17 points — tipping defenders left, right and sideways with his ingenious off-balance action. But will Crawford dominate the Spurs’ Foreign Legion the rest of this series? I’m not convinced.

Remember, Crawford is the only thing L.A. has that even resembles fire power off the bench. That’s a lot of pressure on one guy, as Crawford is essentially tasked to score tit-for-tat with a San Antonio bench that is lauded throughout the league. The Clippers fell apart early in the second quarter before Doc Rivers brought Chris Paul back into the game. My money is on San Antonio quieting Crawford — or at least matching him shot for shot — off the bench the next two weeks.

Memphis 1, Portland 0 — Regression Candidate: Damian Lillard (Up)

Here’s a quick stat line from Lillard on Sunday: 14 points, 5 for 21 (FGA), 0 for 6 (3PA), 2 for 2 (FTA), three assists in 39 minutes. Big Game Dam shot just 43.5 percent from the field after the All-Star break. If Portland has any chance of winning this series — or retaining LaMarcus Aldridge at season’s end? — Lillard needs to raise that clip significantly.

Atlanta 1, Brooklyn 0 — Regression Candidate: Jarrett Jack (Down)

Jack scored 13 points in 16 minutes, including a pair of long jumpers within his first minute of action.

I’m just going to leave this here.

Those first few Jarrett Jack buckets were the worst thing that could have happened to the Nets

— Mike Prada. (PRAY-duh) (@MikePradaNBA) April 19, 2015

Cleveland 1, Boston 0 — Regression Candidate: Kevin Love (Up)

Poor Kevin. While Kyrie Irving shed the “playoff virgin” label instantaneously with an incendiary shooting performance, Love had just about the most “Cleveland Kevin Love” performance we could have conjured up. He was 5 for 14 from the field, consistently giving away open looks, forcing passes where they shouldn’t be. He was tentative. Unlike Irving, he was playing like it was his first playoff game.

Here’s the deal — Love is too good for this to become cause for concern. Look for him to destroy Boston’s try-hard defense on Tuesday.

Chicago 1, Milwaukee 0 — Regression Candidate: Pau Gasol (Up)

This is me betting on a great (offensive) player to make an adjustment in an awkward matchup. Yes, Milwaukee’s lengthy defenders challenge Gasol, who has never been mistaken for a leaper. But 5 for 17 shooting (29.4 percent) is about as rough as it can get for Gasol, and it’s not like Milwaukee has Serge Ibaka or Roy Hibbert back there. Gasol will turn things around — a bad sign for the Bucks in Game 2.

Washington 1, Toronto 0 — Regression Candidate: DeMar DeRozan (Up)

Like most modern basketball fans, I’m not into long 2s — particularly when they aren’t falling. For this reason and many others, I didn’t enjoy watching Wizards/Raptors on Saturday. Randy Wittman has found a way to turn a John Wall-centric offense into a neutered dog.

Meanwhile in Toronto, DeRozan has looked more and more like former Raptor Rudy Gay since his return from injury. In 28 games post-All-Star break, DeRozan shot 43.2 percent on 17.7 FGA per game. On Saturday DeRozan clunked 14 of 20 shots, scoring 15 points in 43 minutes.

DeRozan and Lillard have a lot in common right now. They are both All-Stars on good-not-great teams — teams that could get bounced in round one and watch their entire roster get picked apart all summer. For Toronto or Portland to advance, DeRozan and Lillard need to get themselves off this list. These guys aren’t supposed to be regression candidates; they are meant to be franchise bedrocks.