In an ironic twist, two players who spent part of the season with one of the worst teams in the NBA have arguably become the most important figures in a contender’s title hopes.
With the Cleveland Cavaliers losing Kevin Love — most likely the rest of the playoffs — it’s going to fall on former New York Knicks J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert to become consistent contributors.
Superstars can only take you so far during a playoff run. We know on a nightly basis what LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are going to bring to the table. James has seen firsthand the importance of complementary players on a roster, when Mike Miller (2012) or Ray Allen (2013) paved the way for him to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy. He needs to know what his supporting cast can provide now that Love is gone.
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In addition to the Cavaliers losing a player of Love’s stature and production, they’ve also lost their room for error and lineup versatility.
With Love in the mix, on most nights, Cleveland only needed one of Shumpert or Smith to be productive players. This is no longer the case. The heavy weight of the Cavs’ title hopes is going to fall onto James, Irving, Timofey Mozgov, Tristan Thompson, Shumpert, and Smith.
James Jones, Shawn Marion, Miller, and Matthew Dellavedova are flawed in their own ways. Marion and Miller are older veterans that haven’t really contributed this season, and we don’t know if they’re capable. Jones and Dellavedova are limited, flawed players that can be exposed.
Once J.R. is back from his two-game suspension, the closing lineup in all likelihood will be Irving, Shumpert, Smith, James, and one of Mozgov or Thompson.
Lets start with the positives – that style of lineup should be hugely effective, and we have prior evidence to prove it. The two of them thrived playing together in New York in small-ball lineups with Carmelo Anthony at the four, Ray Felton at point guard, and a defense-minded center in Tyson Chandler (2012-’13 Kenyon Martin, too).
Last season the Knicks posted a +10 net rating in the 832 minutes they spent together, up from the team’s typical -1.0.
In 2012-2013 the regular season didn’t see them have the same type of results — a -0.7 net rating in 390 minutes — but in 139 playoff minutes, they were a +13.
With James and Irving anchoring the units in Cleveland, it’s a better situation than any of the groups the duo played with in New York. In the 394 minutes Shump and Smith played together this season, they’ve shown the ability to do well with a +10.1 rating.
The picture being painted isn’t as beautiful as it seems, however. Part of the problem the Knicks had with these two was being forced to rely on them too much. This is why the Knicks were a borderline contender in 2012-’13, as opposed to a team truly capable of winning it all. What created a perfect fit in Cleveland was that on those nights when one of them didn’t have it going, it was easy to fill out a five-player lineup combination with enough talent to win consistently. That’s not the case anymore.
From Shumpert’s standpoint you hope for the best in terms of health. The past two seasons he’s played only 124 games (meaning he’s missed 40 — two seasons occupy 164 games, not counting the playoffs), and he has never averaged more than 28.9 minutes per game in his career. He played 29 MPG in Cleveland’s first-round sweep of the Celtics and is most likely going to cross the 30 mark with Love out. Can his body handle it?
In Smith’s case it’s more about performance than worrying about injuries. He’s a volatile, streaky player as we’ve seen throughout his career. Smith has had long stretches of struggles in the playoffs, with mental lapses that lead to things such as a two-game suspension.
Among Knicks fans (yes, I am a Knicks fan) I was one of his staunchest defenders, but even I acknowledge the inconsistencies that exist with him. If he’s having a bad night, head coach David Blatt might be forced to stick with him versus being able to put him on the bench. This is a huge concern. If Smith runs into one of those eight- to 10- game stretches when he forgets the object of the game of basketball is to shoot the ball through the hoop, the Cavs could be in deep trouble.
A good way to sum up the situation jointly faced by J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert is that they’ve gone from being luxuries to must-have players. That’s quite a transition for them to make at this late stage of the season. Such an adjusted reality could end up being detrimental to the Cavaliers’ championship aspirations in the second round and beyond.
