The second round of the Western Conference playoffs begins on Sunday.
Get excited!
Uhhhh no, probably don’t get too excited.
The Golden State Warriors versus the Memphis Grizzlies seemed like an interesting Western Conference semifinal matchup on paper earlier in the year. There was a time during the regular season when, if you told me I’d get Warriors-Grizzlies, I would have been “super-duper jumping off the wall” pumped.
One team won 67 games and the other won 55. These are two really good teams. Unfortunately, when you dig a little deeper, I just don’t see it.
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The Matchups
Here’s my question – where does Memphis have any advantage?
Let’s pretend for now Mike Conley is healthy and can play. The duo of Conley and Tony Allen gets the fun task of chasing around Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.
When Allen’s not in, Courtney Lee and Vince Carter will be in the mix.
Curry is borderline unguardable no matter how good a defender Conley is, and Thompson can get shots over anyone with his length, partially neutralizing Allen’s unique defensive abilities.
On the other end, Golden State will ignore the non-shooting Allen much as it did with New Orleans Pelicans big man Omer Asik in the first round. Conley should be able to become an offensive plus, but it won’t be to the same extent Curry is able to pull off on the other end.
The backcourt head-to-head ends in a negative for the Grizzlies. Where they have a presumed advantage is in the frontcourt, but this is a sentiment I don’t necessarily agree with.
The Andrew Bogut and Draymond Green combination is arguably the best defensive-big duo in the NBA. Bogut has the size, length, strength, foot speed and smarts to make Marc Gasol have to work hard for whatever he gets.
Green is 6-7 and Randolph is a beast to deal with in the post. I still don’t see building an offensive game plan around giving someone post touches against Green as a smart way to go about things — even if it’s Z-Bo.
The biggest advantage offensively between the bigs is the reality of Z-Bo being forced to defend Green on the perimeter. The Michigan State alum shot .337 from three in the regular season and .353 in Golden State’s first round series. Forcing Randolph to guard in space versus banging bodies down low isn’t where you want the burly forward to be.
If Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger tries going small with Jeff Green to counter Draymond, that’s a win for Golden State: One of the Grizz’s best players is going to be off the floor.
I don’t see any way you can spin these matchups in favor of Memphis.
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The Injury
Now to an unfortunate reality – Mike Conley’s face currently looks like this:
For whichever games he can’t play, that leaves Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes to man the point guard position for Memphis.
These are Damian Lillard’s statistics from the Grizz-Trail Blazers first round series with Conley on and off the court:
At first glance there doesn’t seem to be anything noticeably different based on the per-36-minute numbers. Lillard averaged slightly more points and shot slightly worse with Conley on the bench. If you look a little closer, that’s not the case. Lillard got to the foul line seven times per 36 with Conley off the floor, versus only 3.7 times with Conley playing. The amount of shots Lillard took in the restricted area also went up by almost 6 percent when Conley sat. The two Memphis backups allow more dribble penetration than Conley does.
Luckily for Memphis, Game 1 is on Sunday, and then Game 2 isn’t being played until Tuesday. We’ll see if this is enough time to get their star guard back and playing at a high level. If nothing else, a three-day break between Games 2 and 3 should be able to get Conley into the series (possibly with the ability to gain a genuine rhythm) by that point in time.
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Statistical Breakdown
During the regular season the Warriors were the fastest team in the NBA, playing at a 100.69 pace, while the Grizzlies were the fifth slowest at 94.21.
Golden State had the best defensive rating (98.2), and Memphis wasn’t far behind placing fourth (99.2). The big difference was on offense, with GSW having the second-best offensive rating (109.7) and the Grizz falling outside the top 10 at 13th (103.1).
Memphis has to find a way to close the gap in three-point makes to have a chance in this series. Golden State averaged 10.7 three-pointers per game on 27 attempts (a league-best 39.8 percent). Memphis only connected on 5.1 threes per game on 15 attempts (33.9 percent). If that remains true in this series, Memphis will need to make up 15 points a game in other areas.
The idea of the Grizzlies slowing down the Warriors’ three-point attack seems unlikely despite Memphis having a stingy defense. The Grizz were only middle of the road this season in defending the three, allowing opponents to make eight a game at a 35.1-percent clip.
When you’re at a huge disadvantage in threes, the typical way to even the points out is by creating extra offensive possessions (taking more shots). The keys to making this happen are turnovers and rebounding.
The problem is there doesn’t seem to be a big enough difference in these categories for the Grizzlies. Memphis turned the ball over only 0.4 percent less than Golden State did in the regular season. The Grizzlies also weren’t a great offensive rebounding team despite their reputation as big and bruising. They ranked 17th in offensive rebound percentage, only 0.6 percent higher than the Warriors. Memphis was also only 0.8 percent better in defensive rebound percentage.
Memphis has to go outside the statistical norm to create an opportunity to win this series.
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Regular Season Matchups
The Warriors took two of three from the Grizzlies in the regular season.
Memphis won the first game, 105-98, on December 16. Jeff Green wasn’t yet on the team and Golden State was without Bogut. Curry shot 1-10 from three and 9-25 overall – good luck with that happening again.
Game two had both teams at full strength and saw the Warriors stomp the Grizzlies, 107-84. Curry and Thompson combined to make 14-21 threes and score 64 points.
Golden State won the final game by only four, but this was late in the season and both teams’ starters played limited minutes. Tony Allen and Mike Conley didn’t play for Memphis. This was a pretty meaningless game.
In three regular season games, the Grizzlies allowed the Warriors to shoot 38-86 (44 percent). That better be a fluke and not a trend for Memphis.
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Prediction
If Mike Conley was healthy I would have picked the Warriors in five or six.
Conley is not healthy, however, and even if he is able to play you have to question how effective he can be. With Conley playing at less than 100 percent, I’ll take the Warriors in five. If he can’t play at all, I think Golden State will sweep.
