As the 2015 NBA Finals become a best-of-three series and move back to Oakland this upcoming Sunday, basketball lovers — who have not been treated to a particularly well-played series, but certainly an endlessly intriguing one — have so many questions to ponder.
The next few days leading up to Game 5 will be crammed with all sorts of fascinating queries, and in the immediate aftermath of the Golden State Warriors’ victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4, this one seems the most appropriate as a big-picture conversation-starter:
Is this the Memphis series all over again for Golden State, or not?
You can immediately identify all sorts of reasons to justify either answer, but I’m going to firmly plant my feet on the “NO” side of the fence.
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For the sake of brevity, look elsewhere for the contention that this is indeed a replay of the Memphis series for Golden State. I say that not because I’m unwilling to cite evidence which supports the claim, but because other people at our site are better equipped to advance that argument and back it up. (That’s the value of having a staff of writers with differentiated viewpoints.)
If you look at Game 4 of the Memphis series for the Western Conference champions and compare it to Game 4 of the Finals on Thursday night in Cleveland, several points of differentiation leap to the surface:
* Shaun Livingston was not a factor in Game 4 against Memphis.
* David Lee was not a factor, either.
* Stephen Curry got to the foul line a lot more against Memphis and was much more assertive and accurate through the first three quarters of that game. Against Cleveland, he was okay, maybe decent at best. However, Curry has yet to put an MVP-like stamp on this series. Maybe he’s been the second-best Warrior in this series, but you could make a convincing case that Klay Thompson deserves that spot. Curry finished the Memphis series looking, feeling and playing like an MVP. After four games against the Cavs, such certainty about Steph’s game does not seem warranted… yet.
* Golden State maintained a large lead throughout the second half, without Memphis pulling within three points as the Cavs did late in the third quarter on Thursday.
* Cleveland faced a much more attritional Game 4 than Memphis did, playing three guys (LeBron, Tristan Thompson, and Iman Shumpert) at least 38 minutes, with Shumpert carrying a shoulder injury. Memphis played only one player (Marc Gasol, 38) more than 33 minutes. Cleveland went with a seven-man rotation, Memphis eight.
* Against Memphis, Golden State still committed 21 turnovers, while it surrendered only seven against Cleveland. The Warriors really did seem to benefit from their depth in this game, after three games in which commentators kept saying that Golden State was going to wear down Cleveland… only for it to never happen. Well, it finally happened in Game 4. Memphis wasn’t so much fatigued in Game 4 as it was thrown off balance by the way in which the Warriors defended Tony Allen. Golden State changed the shape of the Grizzlies’ offensive possessions such that Andrew Bogut could protect the rim.
This brings up the next point:
* Against Memphis, Bogut had a place on the floor in the series. Marc Gasol isn’t quick enough to expose him with lethal consistency. Timofey Mozgov of the Cavaliers has been a different story, and Steve Kerr’s move to bench Bogut in Game 4 clearly made a difference for the Warriors. (Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, Livingston, and Andre Iguodala — Golden State’s MVP in the Finals — all playing well didn’t hurt.)
* In Game 4 of Warriors-Grizzlies, only 34 total free throws were attempted (16 for Golden State, 18 for Memphis). In Game 4 of Warriors-Cavs, 55 foul shots were attempted (27 for Golden State, 28 for Cleveland).
Removed from all these Game 4-based reasons why Warriors-Griz is not Warriors-Cavs, there’s the small matter of what lies ahead in this series, with three points towering over all the others:
1) In Games 5 through 7 (if we need a Game 7), Cleveland has LeBron James. Memphis did not.
2) A two-day break precedes Games 5 and 7. Memphis did not have a chance to regroup to that extent in the West semifinals.
3) Tony Allen missed Game 5 of the Golden State-Memphis series. Cleveland will have its best defensive players (more broadly speaking, its best lineup) available for Sunday at Oracle Arena.
All three of those reasons strongly suggest that whereas Golden State turned a corner in Game 4 of the Memphis series, this doesn’t have the same feel at all. Cleveland has just endured the true grind of the series, its most physically daunting stretch.
Remember:
Game 1 was played after a week-plus layoff. Game 2 was played with two full days of rest. When Cleveland gutted out that Game 2 win last Sunday in Oakland with a short bench, the extra day certainly played a part in getting Cleveland to the finish line. Some homecourt adrenaline — combined with LeBron’s virtuosity and a star-level performance from a role player, Matthew Dellavedova — carried Cleveland home in Game 3. As mentioned above, the pundit class was constantly mentioning the depth issue, but it hadn’t yet affected the series.
It did in Game 4, but with the two-day break before Game 5 plus the prospect of another break before Game 7, Cleveland’s ability to play a shorter rotation with extended minutes should not be all that compromised.
Should David Blatt give two or three extra minutes to guys further down the bench late in the first quarter or at the start of the second quarter, so that LeBron can play 41 minutes instead of 45? Probably so. (If Golden State leads by eight or nine, sure, Blatt would have to keep LeBron on the floor.) However, we’re not in a situation where Cleveland needs to dramatically redistribute minutes — if we’re talking only about three- or four-minute redistributions out of 48, that’s not too much. It’s not as though Blatt needs to rethink his whole concepts in terms of playing time; he just needs to make light tweaks for Games 5 and 7. Game 6, coming off a one-day break and a plane flight, will be the game next week in which Blatt might have to make more difficult choices.
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Maybe Golden State will look like a solidified team once again in full ownership of its powers on Sunday evening. However, Golden State cruised in Game 1 against Memphis and then got punched in the mouth, all while enduring an odd three-day break within the series (not before it). When the Warriors won Game 4 in Memphis, it was as though they had regained a lofty perch.
In this series, Cleveland had controlled the tempo and style of each of the first three games. Game 4 was the first time the Warriors played the game on their terms, and this was with Dellavedova cramping, LeBron’s head getting cut, and Shumpert wobbling around the court (for 39 minutes!) with a shoulder injury.
Given that Cleveland has competed better over the course of the four games, the benefit of the doubt in terms of game style and flow should be a wash at best for Game 5. If anything, LeBron James getting nearly 70 hours to recharge should concern the Warriors.
Even though this might still become the Memphis series, part two, it sure doesn’t feel like it.
That’s not meant to rain on Golden State’s parade after a clutch Game 4 performance; it’s only meant to show that if many people think the Warriors have finally figured out this series and their opponent, enough evidence exists to indicate that such an assertion is noticeably premature.
