We are just over 24 hours away from the 2015 NBA draft. I’m tired.
Rumors are swirling, trade winds are … windy? Blowing? I don’t know. A lot of stuff is happening. Most of it is agent posturing, some of it isn’t, but this is shaping up to be one of the more exciting drafts in recent memory.
For Version 3.0, the last and final Mock Draft before the real thing kicks off tomorrow night at 7 p.m. Eastern time on ESPN, I decided to break things down by predictability. You are all smart readers, so you’ll get it.
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Group 1: I feel pretty good about these
- Minnesota Timberwolves – Karl Towns, PF/C, Kentucky
We’re still hearing that Karl Towns, Jahlil Okafor, and D’Angelo Russell are all possibilities for the Timberwolves, but despite the agent posturing, I still think Towns is the pick here. He’s the best player in this draft, and I’ve felt that way for quite some time. Despite all the noise, Towns goes first.
- Los Angeles Lakers – Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
This Jahlil Okafor vs. D’Angelo Russell decision for the Lakers is going to come down to the wire. It’s entirely possible that Russell is the selection here, but if the Lakers are trying to win now, I have to think a veteran point guard is necessary. I have no idea who that will be, but drafting Okafor and addressing point guard in free agency always felt like the move for L.A. at No. 2.
- Philadelphia 76ers – D’Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State
In the interest of full disclosure, I would probably select Kristaps Porzingis here, but the 76ers have a glaring weakness at point guard, and D’Angelo Russell is an ideal fit. His potential may not be quite as high as Emmanuel Mudiay or Porzingis, and that higher potential could change Philadelphia’s mind, but 24 hours before the draft, I think Russell is the guy.
- New York Knicks – Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
I slotted Justise Winslow here about a week ago, but it’s starting to look like Porzingis’s potential is going to win out in New York. His skill would be a welcome addition to the Knicks’ roster, but a trade here would not surprise me if both Okafor and Russell were off the board.
- Orlando Magic – Mario Hezonja, SG, Croatia
I don’t think Orlando loves anyone at this spot, which is why a trade here wouldn’t surprise me. With that being said, the Magic need scoring, and they need a wing if Tobias Harris leaves in free agency. Hezonja or Justise Winslow should be the pick, and Willie Cauley-Stein is still an option if the Magic want to draft big, although his draft stock is starting to fall.
- Sacramento Kings – Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky
Despite Cauley-Stein’s somewhat falling draft stock, I think the Kings would still select him over anyone else left on the board here. Justise Winslow and Emmanuel Mudiay would be options, but both declined workouts with Sacramento. The Kings want someone who wants to be there, and Cauley-Stein fits that description. Mario Hezonja is a real option at No. 6 if he gets by Orlando at No. 5.
- Denver Nuggets – Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Guangdong, China
If Mudiay is available at 7, the Nuggets should — and likely will — make him their selection. This would open up the door for the seemingly inevitable Ty Lawson trade. Justise Winslow is also an option here.
- Detroit Pistons – Justise Winslow, SG/SF, Duke
Winslow could go as high as No. 4 to the Knicks, but if he doesn’t go to New York, and things fall into place as we’ve mapped out above, Detroit will happily stop Winslow’s slide. He’d be a perfect fit with Stan Van Gundy’s Pistons.
Group 2: I feel considerably less-good about these
- Charlotte Hornets – Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
The Charlotte Hornets need perimeter offense. They just traded Lance Stephenson to the Clippers last week, so slotting the best available shooting guard here makes the most sense. I’d expect both Mario Hezonja and Justise Winslow to be options if they are still on the board.
- Miami Heat – Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona
The Heat would be thrilled to find Stanley Johnson waiting for them at 10. This could go down as one of the better value selections in the draft. Johnson should be able to contribute in some capacity from day one, giving the win-now Miami Heat exactly what they are looking for.
- Indiana Pacers – Frank Kaminsky, PF, Wisconsin
The Pacers probably prefer Willie Cauley-Stein, but if he isn’t available, Frank Kaminsky is a pretty good consolation prize. This fit could work out better for Indiana in the long run, anyway.
- Utah Jazz – Myles Turner, C, Texas
I’ve had Turner at No. 12 for a few different mock drafts simply because I cannot get a read on what the Utah Jazz are trying to do. They have so much young talent, and while Myles Turner doesn’t necessarily fit a need for a team that has both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors in the frontcourt, he is the best prospect on the board here.
- Phoenix Suns – Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin
I’ve had fellow small forward Kelly Oubre slotted here in past mock drafts, but Sam Dekker has since leap-frogged him on most draft boards to the point where I’d feel uncomfortable keeping Oubre ahead of him. Dekker should be able to score from day one, and while Phoenix doesn’t necessarily need more dynamic offensive players, adding another couldn’t hurt.
- Oklahoma City Thunder – Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Depending on what reports you believe, Cameron Payne has been the Thunder’s target for months now. If he’s on the board here, they are taking him.
- Atlanta Hawks– Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas
The domino effect of having Dekker jump to No. 13 leaves the Atlanta Hawks Kansas’s Kelly Oubre. Oubre could prove to be the better player in the long run, although Atlanta would appreciate Dekker’s ability to give the Hawks a bench lift immediately. If Dekker is here, Hawks take him, if not, Oubre is a good plan B.
Group 3: OK, things are really starting to break down
- Boston Celtics – Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas
I keep flipping between Bobby Portis and Trey Lyles here. It really is a toss-up, but Portis seems like the more polished player and a slightly better defender, which is exactly what the Celtics need.
- Milwaukee Bucks – Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame
Tyus Jones has jumped Jerian Grant on most draft boards, but I can’t help that I love Jerian Grant’s fit in Milwaukee. It’s unclear what the Bucks are going to do with Michael Carter-Williams, but Grant is a pretty good insurance policy if they move him.
- Houston Rockets – Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Tyus Jones makes so much sense in Houston that it’ll probably not happen, but I’m keeping him here until then. The Rockets need a backup point guard, if not a starting point guard, and Jones is an excellent prospect for either role.
- Washington Wizards – Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
I’ve seen Trey Lyles slotted anywhere from No. 1o to late in the first round. I really like the fit here with Washington. If he’s still available, I think he’s the right pick. If not, Kevon Looney will be an option.
- Toronto Raptors – R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
Lou Williams is already receiving a ton of interest around the league, and free agency hasn’t even started yet. I’ve had Hunter here since I produced Mock Draft 1.0, and I have had no reason to change this projection.
- Dallas Mavericks – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona
I was expecting Hollis-Jefferson to rise up draft boards more than he has, but I still really like him as a prospect, and he could be the best perimeter defender in this draft. He doesn’t necessarily fill a void for the Mavericks, but they strike me as the kind of organization that would take a chance on his incredibly high potential.
- Chicago Bulls – Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia
Everyone pegged Justin Anderson as the guy the Chicago Bulls have been targeting, and while their perceived interest in Anderson has cooled over the last week or so, I still believe he’s the Bulls’ pick Thursday night.
- Portland Trail Blazers – Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA
I’ve had a few different frontcourt players here in the past few weeks, and for good reason. Both Robin Lopez and LaMarcus Aldridge could leave in free agency, leaving behind plenty of minutes for a young power forward. This could be Montrezl Harrell if Looney is off the board, but I’ve been having a hard time placing Looney anywhere else above 23. If he’s available here, I think the Blazers take him.
- Cleveland Cavaliers – Delon Wright, PG, Utah
Delon Wright is getting a lot of attention from teams well above the Cleveland Cavaliers, but this fit makes so much sense that if Wright makes it to No. 24, it would work out tremendously for both parties.
Group 4: Like throwing darts at a dart board, blindfolded, at night, and the darts are actually carrots
- Memphis Grizzlies – Jarell Martin, SF/PF, LSU
Many folks believe Jarell Martin has a first-round promise, and DraftExpress has reason to believe it was the Memphis Grizzlies who gave it to him. He’d certainly fit a need. If Martin isn’t the guy here, I like Montrezl Harrell and Robert Upshaw.
- San Antonio Spurs – Montrezl Harrell
Montrezl Harrell shouldn’t drop this far, but that doesn’t mean he won’t. If he does, you bet Gregg Popovich is going to grab him and laugh at all of the teams who let him slide.
- Los Angeles Lakers – Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Rashad Vaughn is going to be an excellent shooter at the next level, and the Lakers need help everywhere. More importantly, he’s really the best prospect left on the board at this point, and should be a no-brainer for L.A.
- Boston Celtics – Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
I have a feeling Robert Upshaw is going to be a Celtic one way or another. If Danny Ainge thinks he can pick him up in the second round, he’ll wait; if not, he’ll grab him here.
- Brooklyn Nets – Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville
I like Rozier, and I think he is a first-round draft pick. We’re running out of options.
- Golden State Warriors – Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse
Chris McCullough has been slotted here for every version of this mock draft, mostly because I’m stubborn, but I genuinely think it would be a smart move for the defending NBA champions. McCullough is an excellent prospect that is still recovering from injury, and thus won’t be able to contribute for quite some time. The Warriors are one of the few teams that can afford to wait.
