“The ball is tipped, and there you are…”
Wait, no, that’s not the right song…
“It’s the final countdown!” Ah, there it is. Forgive me as I do my best to double dip into the worlds of professional, international (which I must add, is also professional) and college basketball, but nothing brings the three together quite like the NBA Draft.
With the Minnesota Timberwolves being on the clock for just several more hours, the 2015 NBA Draft is finally upon us! Months of uncertainty, back-and-forth, and mock drafts all get their closure in a few short hours, and the basketball world is freaking pumped!
Before we get our answers, however, I wanted to take a look at five of the biggest questions heading into tonight beyond Karl Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, who are all but cemented as the first two picks, in that order.
Assuming the big men go one and two, here are some things I’m going to be looking out for:
1) Will the Philadelphia 76ers draft D’Angelo Russell or Emmanuel Mudiay with the third pick?
I’ve seen a lot of writers say that the New York Knicks will decide what direction this draft will go in when they make their decision for the fourth pick, but I honestly think it’s the team that picks before them that’s really in control tonight. Known for taking the best player available over the last couple of years, will the 76ers “shock the world” and go with the latest 1-on-0 workout sensation Kristaps Porzingis? Or will they take one of the two point guards, who in all fairness, could very well be the most talented players in the draft beyond Towns and Okafor?
As much as I don’t want to outthink the room, I’ve felt like Russell would be the perfect fit and the logical three pick in the draft for months now. With that said, ESPN NBA Insider/Draft Expert Chad Ford told Zach Lowe on Wednesday that he thinks Philadelphia general manager Sam Hinkie is more interested in Mudiay, and that’s who he has for the pick in his final mock draft.
The two players are very different in style. Both can score, with Russell being the better shooter and Mudiay being the better slasher. Russell’s great from three and average on defense, Mudiay’s an intense defender but shooting is an area that he needs to improve. At the end of the day, both are excellent facilitators, possess terrific court vision, and have great feel for the game.
It appears that the selection will come down to preference, with the outcome heavily impacting what the Knicks, and everybody following, will do.
2) Will a team with a lottery pick (top-14) make a trade?
I didn’t want to make this question, or post for that matter, about the Knicks, but they’re much more likely to trade out of the four pick if Philadelphia takes Russell, as he’s apparently near, if not at the top of the Knicks’ draft board. If Russell’s available, he’s unquestionably the pick; if not, are the Knicks the team that trades down?
I don’t mean to run wild with rumors and speculation, but teams rumored to potentially be interested in trading down include the Lakers (if they can get Demarcus Cousins), Philadelphia, New York, and Miami, with teams rumored to be interested in trading up including the Sacramento, Denver, Indiana, and Phoenix.
I think the players in each tier being so close to each other plays a big role in some teams being open to slotting over a couple of spots, and if I had to make a bet, I’d say at least two lottery picks are traded.
3) In what order do Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja, and Stanley Johnson go?
My personal answer lies in the way I ordered them in the question, as Winslow’s been rumored to go as high as four to New York. With that said, I find it interesting that up until the NCAA Tournament it appeared that Johnson was the top prospect of the group, with Winslow taking that spot after he tore through the tournament, en route to winning the NCAA championship.
With that said, I think Hezonja’s superstar potential has been one of the most under-the-radar topics leading up to the draft, and if Chad Ford’s right and Philadelphia takes Mudiay, New York takes Russell, and Orlando takes Porzingis, I don’t know that Sacramento passes on the Croatian Sen… sational scorer. Crossover Chronicles’ very own Tony Xypteras detailed the connections between the Kings and Hezonja for SBN’s Sactown Royalty, and I think we could very well see him off the board first.
4) Who will be the first point guard taken after Russell and Mudiay?
Most mock drafts have between six and seven point guards going in the first round, but who will be the first point guard taken after Russell and Mudiay? With teams in the teens like Indiana (11), Utah (12), Oklahoma City (14), Houston (18) and Washington (19) all in need of help at the position, it’s possible that there isn’t that big of a gap between Mudiay/Russell and the next point guard. The big question is, who’s next?
I think the consensus for the last few weeks has been Murray State’s Cameron Payne, but both Jerian Grant and Tyus Jones make for good fits for both Utah and Oklahoma City, and both have played in bigger spots, and might even be more polished than the lefty Payne.
I’m most interested in this topic because the three point guards in question are diverse in their backgrounds: Payne’s the player from a small program who has shown the ability to score at will, possessing an ideal point guard body with accompanying skill set. Grant’s the seasoned vet who accomplished a ton in college but has been labeled “limited upside” due to his age. Jones was the major recruit who lived up to the hype by proving he could play immediately, yet still has concerns about his size and athleticism to overcome.
I know this isn’t exactly a burning question, but I think it’s worth keeping an eye on these three players over the next year, and remembering the order in which they were drafted.
5) What player takes the biggest leap, getting drafted higher than expected?
I’m not sure that this question applies to Porzingis or Hezonja unless they go first overall, as the hype train is currently at max capacity for this year’s top foreign prospects. I think there’s a slight chance that the Knicks could reach for Willie Cauley Stein at four if Russell and Okafor are off the board (although rumor has it Trey Lyles is the Kentucky big they prefer), but otherwise I’m expecting the answer to this question to be one of Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker, or Tyus Jones.
For example, the answer to this question last year was Bruno Caboclo at 20 to Toronto.
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What are some questions you have about the draft and teams’ offseason needs? Let me know on Twitter at @JMintzHoops.
