San Antonio pulled way out in front of the LaMarcus Aldridge sweepstakes before most people had eaten lunch on the East Coast Wednesday. It’s something we all expected. The Spurs quickly came to terms with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green, then agreed to trade Tiago Splitter to a willing participant (San Antonio’s lil bro, Atlanta) in order to open up $8.5 million.
It’s possible that the Spurs have already accomplished all the necessary cap squeezing to add Aldridge because the NBA, for some bizarre reason, might be raising the 2015-16 salary cap to $69 million AFTER the start of free agency.
https://twitter.com/KBergCBS/status/616078836036321281
Impossible to tell now with 100% precision, but cap being at $69M vs $67M could be difference b/w Spurs keeping Mills and trading him.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) July 1, 2015
13 hours into NBA’s moratorium period and the Spurs were poised to become the new (old?) favorites in the West. But then the first real surprise of the day happened: the Suns signed Tyson Chandler to a 4 year, $52 million deal. This couldn’t be an isolated move and it wasn’t — the Suns also agreed to a 5 year, $70 million extension with Brandon Knight.
But the Suns weren’t done! Phoenix brought Knight, Chandler and Eric Bledsoe to its Wednesday afternoon meeting with Aldridge. After two hours, Aldridge and the Suns finally came up for air, and nobody was mincing words: Phoenix done good.
Sources: Suns have legitimately closed the gap in pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge. Tyson Chandler, perimeter talent. They're a real factor.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) July 2, 2015
Suns believed before meeting Aldridge they had a shot. They were right. Chandler surprise big. Phoenix was "very impressive," per source.
— David Aldridge (@davidaldridgedc) July 2, 2015
THAT HAPPENED SO QUICKLY!
It’s easy to get excited about NBA free agency. After all, DeMarre Carroll just became the highest paid player on a NBA team (!). Orlando nearly signed Paul Millsap on the open market (!!). Al-Farouq Aminu inked a $30 million deal before noon Wednesday (!!!!!!!).
But can Phoenix actually talk Aldridge out of joining San Antonio? And, if their pitch of good beer and exquisite training staffs works, how are the Suns planning on getting everybody cleanly on their cap sheet? Knight and Chandler make a combined average salary of $27 million, and Aldridge can make an average salary of $21 million, per Bright Side of the Sun, in Phoenix.
Still on the Suns books are Marcus Thornton, Gerald Green and Brandon Wright whose cap holds equate to roughly $30 million — cap holds that Phoenix can renounce without losing a wink of sleep, of course. If they do, Bright Side has the Suns at $55.64 million before the deals given to Knight and Chandler. That’s roughly $14 million under the new cap.
As Bright Side points out, though, being “under the cap” only benefits a team when they have the necessary cap space — if Phoenix only wanted Chandler, they could sign him with their available cap space and be done with it. Trying to squeeze Aldridge’s mega contract into the mix complicates matters.
The Suns can also choose to keep that money on the books in order to remain an “over the cap” team — giving themselves access to a collection of exceptions: a trade exception from the Goran Dragic deal ($5.5 million), the mid-level exception (5.8 million) and the biennial exception (1.9 million). However, staying above the cap does come with a stipulation: Phoenix would have to execute sign-and-trades with Chandler (Dallas) and Aldridge’s (Portland) former teams — sending at least 50 percent of each player’s first year salary to their old digs.
All told, whether they stay above or below the cap, the Suns would have to trade upward of $17 million in salary to make this deal work. But if they renounce their superfluous free agents and go underneath the cap, they lose the majority of their exceptions — and risk have a barren cupboard once they finalize Chandler and Aldridge’s deals.
Photo by Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports
There’s the other pertinent question for the Suns: who could they trade to make extra room. The obvious choice would be the Morrii — two athletic forwards on super cheap deals (combined $13 million next season) — but they are facing felony charges. They cannot leave the state without permission. It would take a special team (Sacramento?) to take them on right now, and I can’t see Dallas or Portland going for that if Phoenix is looking for sign-and-trade possibilities.
There are not great options after that. P.J. Tucker makes $5.5 million next season and is worth more to Phoenix than anywhere else. At $3.8 million, Alex Len has more value as a prospect learning underneath Chandler than as a matching salary. Phoenix has seven guaranteed roster spots worth a combined $10.58 — the Suns just don’t have great salary filler candidates.
Thought it was heavily rumored he was on the block in June, Eric Bledsoe, who makes $13 million next season, appears to be off the table because of his involvement in recruiting Aldridge.
Where there’s a will, there’s a way. But Phoenix doesn’t appear to have a clean path toward adding Chandler and Aldridge. Any scenario that brings Aldridge to the Suns will shorten their bench and strip them off their best assets. It’s a double-edged sword — why would Aldridge come to Phoenix if they have to surrender the majority of the roster to get him there?
Meanwhile, San Antonio has executed its plan flawlessly, and have a clean roster spot waiting for Aldridge. If L.A. strolls down the River Walk, the Spurs are instantly the team to beat in the NBA. Can the same be said for Phoenix? Adding Chandler and Aldridge makes Phoenix a lot better… but how much better, really?
We’ll see when Aldridge is ready to announce his decision. Just don’t be surprised when it’s still the team we expected him to join all along.
