It is a debate that is as old as time. Or at least as old as the NBA and the NCAA.
March is often touted as the greatest month of basketball because of the unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament. Nobody ever knows who will win what game or how the whole thing will shake out. One game is the difference between glory and goat.
The NBA is a much different animal. The best-of-seven series ensures the better team in a two week period wins rather than the one game flashes. There are not many Lehighs defeating Dukes because in a seven-game series, the adjustments and talent levels jsut become too much for lower seeded teams. And so, the NBA Playoffs feature a whole lot less randomness and uncertainty.
Typically you can predict the NBA Playoffs with relative certainty once the final series are set for the first round. and, frankly, you often can tell the four or five teams with a real NBA title shot from the beginning of the season. There is just a lot less uncertainty when it comes to the NBA and its postseason.
You could argue some of that changed last year. The NBA became a bit more upset-minded with the eighth-seeded Grizzlies toppling the top-seeded Spurs and the fifth-seeded Hawks upending the fourth-seeded Magic in the first round. Similarly in 2010, the seventh-seeded Spurs and the fifth-seeded Jazz eschewed home-court advantage to win in the first round.
Reviewing Playoffs from the last two seasons, it seems the first round is likely to see at least two teams overcome the lack of home-court advantage in the first round.
The way this season is going, we could see the most wide-open postseason in a while. The favorites to win the whole title are quite clearly Chicago, Miami and Oklahoma City. San Antonio could certainly do enough to win the title this year. Memphis feels like a dark horse that can build off its strong performance in last year’s postseason. And why would anyone count out Boston at this point?
But, one thing that could determine a tighter than usual Playoffs is a tighter than usual standings.
Consider this: there are three teams within one game of the third spot in the East. With the Celtics ascending to the top of the Atlantic Division, they would play the fifth seed in the East. Those four teams are about even record-wise and it would not be a so-called upset if any of them were able to beat the other. Unpredictability in the middle of the Eastern Conference could make for some interesting first round matchups.
New York is the eighth seed and quickly gaining on seventh seeded Philadelphia. New York is far from a complete team. A stellar 43-point performance from Carmelo Anthony in Sunday afternoon’s win over the Bulls reminded the Eastern Conference that the Knicks can still be a dangerous team. Whenever you have one of the best players in the league, regardless of seeding, you can make noise in the postseason.
The West is just as packed with seven teams within five games of the fourth seed in the West and a five-team logjam within 2.5 games of the sixth seed.
It will be difficult to call any lower seeded team in these situations an “upset winner.” But for the first time in a long time there is some true variability in the postseason. We could be looking at several longer, drawn-out, competitive series in the first round as these teams continue to bunch up and fight for Playoff positioning. It certainly will help make the last few weeks of the season that much more exciting.
These battles for playoff positioning in the middle of the conference likely will not change who ultimately will compete and contend for a championship. Those five or so teams mentioned earlier are still the favorites and, barring injury or some incredibly unfavorable matchup, that will not change.
But to make the overall Playoffs that much more exciting, the tightness in the standings and the relatively intense competition taking hold across the league this late in the season will lead to a better Playoffs for the casual fans.
Just hope everyone is ready for some May Madness.
