Inconvenient truths abound in sports for so many reasons.
In the 2015-2016 NBA season — which is about to reach its crescendo — we have witnessed the emergence of several highly complicated realities which demand a recalibrated assessment of the postseason.
The way we saw the NBA in late October is not the way we can — or should — see it in the present tense.
The following five truths do not apply to the periphery of the 16-team playoff class, or even to the mushy middle. This is a focus on the five most prominent teams in the league (though the Toronto Raptors might deserve to be seen as better than the Los Angeles Clippers; alas, that’s a debate which probably won’t be resolved).
5 – THE CLIPPERS AND STEVE BALLMER NEED TO RETHINK HOW THEY DO BUSINESS IF THEY GET BLASTED BY THE WARRIORS IN THE SECOND ROUND
There is little doubt or drama surrounding a potential second-round playoff series between the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors. If the Clippers lose, they will not have failed to meet expectations within a narrow context. No one thinks the Clips will be able to make their first-ever Western Conference Finals appearance this spring.
However, the extent to which the Clippers compete with the champions should have a lot to do with how they approach the 2017 season and beyond.
First things first: All told, coach Doc Rivers did a pretty respectable job over the course of 82 regular season games. Given all the time Blake Griffin missed due to injury, and given the incident in Toronto which could have become a huge problem, this team stayed together. Its reserves performed at a relatively high standard. The guys in the locker room picked up the slack.
However, that’s the 82-game season, the product of navigating a landscape in which a lot of mediocrity exists — more so in the West this year compared to previous years. The Clippers of 2016, if playing the 2014 West, would have struggled to make the playoffs. Yes, that kind of retrofitting could be done with many teams, but the point is plain: The Clippers did well during the regular season, but the weaker West certainly helped them out.
Now comes the postseason.
Portland is not a layup — that series will probably last at least six games — but assuming the Clippers win it, they should meet the Warriors in the playoff series we were denied a year ago.
Point-blank: If the Clippers take the series to six or seven games, they will earn respect around the league and have every right to say that they can bring the band back together for another run in 2017.
However, if the Clips get crushed in a sweep or an easy five-game series, Steve Ballmer has to strongly reconsider how his operation moves along. Coach Doc is solid — he’s not a top-five coach in the league anymore (2008-2014), but he’s still better than most. However, GM Doc would have a lot of explaining to do if his team is completely eviscerated by the Dubs. What possible rationalization could the Clippers offer in terms of saying with credibility that they can catch the Warriors in the coming years?
This organization was saved by DeAndre Jordan’s July flip-flop a year ago, but getting blown out by the Warriors would reinforce the sense that the Clippers are no more than a team that’s good enough to get a 4 seed and a second-round exit. That’s not what Ballmer, Doc, or CP3 are here for.
Ballmer would need to consider stripping Doc of his GM duties, and Blake Griffin would need to become a trade candidate.
We’ll see how well the Clippers are able to stand up to Golden State if that matchup does indeed come to pass.
4 – THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER SHOULDN’T HAVE HIRED BILLY DONOVAN… BUT IF THEY FALL SHORT IN THESE PLAYOFFS, SCOTT BROOKS WASN’T THE BETTER ANSWER
The easy thing to say, if the Oklahoma City Thunder fail to produce a strong playoff run, is that Billy Donovan just can’t cut it as a coach, and that Scott Brooks would have been a better solution to OKC’s problems.
That’s the easy thing to say.
It’s not the right thing to say.
The key point of emphasis in the wake of the regular season is not that OKC was wrong to dismiss Brooks — a decent coach, but not a spectacular one. The proper takeaway from that act is that the Thunder needed to replace Brooks with someone ready to win the title from day one, not a college coach who would inevitably require an adjustment period.
The firing wasn’t the problem. The replacement was.
Oklahoma City — it is no secret — needed to do well this year to increase the odds that Kevin Durant would stay. After 82 games — with the playoffs on the horizon — a win over the San Antonio Spurs in a likely West semifinal series would do a lot to convince K.D. to stick around. Yet, even if OKC falls short of that goal, a new line of thought has gained traction over the course of the season: Durant could choose a one-year opt-out deal so that he and Russell Westbrook are both in the free-agent pool in 2017.
A potential plot complication here is that the Wizards — having fired Randy Wittman — could hire Brooks with the intent of landing K.D. and Russ next year. However, as long as Durant stays one more season in Oklahoma City, Donovan would get a second season in which to apply all the lessons he’s learned from his first. Any season without a conference title (at the very least) in Oklahoma City is a failure, but if the Thunder got one more season with their superstars, they’d have a chance to make all their dreams come true.
Donovan — with a season under his belt — could fully prove that he’s ready to become a great NBA coach. He could also prove that he’s just not cut out for this line of work, but at least everyone in the organization would get that second chance to prove themselves, in the event Durant stays. The Thunder could live with that — not the results if they’re bad, but certainly with the idea that their plan was tested and tried; it was given a full chance to work.
If OKC fails in these playoffs, Donovan would deserve some blame, but the majority of the blame would go to Sam Presti, for entrusting his roster to a coach who had to make a transition from college basketball. It would be unwise to make final verdicts on Donovan based on the 2016 playoffs. As long as Durant stays one more season, we’ll be able to assess Billy D on the raw merits in 2017.
3 – A 67-WIN TEAM COULD FAIL TO MAKE THE NBA FINALS, AND IT WOULD NOT BE A CRUSHING FAILURE
This is one of the core truths created by the 73-9 Golden State Warriors, whose explosion into the stratosphere this season has warped expectations and calibrations and protestations and game summations throughout the NBA.
The Spurs would be disappointed if they lost to the Warriors in the West Finals, but it wouldn’t be a shattering setback — not when the opponent is simply that much better.
The only way the 67-win Spurs would be crushed is if they genuinely had a chance to win the series and truly let it get away. If the Spurs somehow gain a series advantage but then make mistakes and allow the Warriors to recover in the process, that would create a sleepless offseason.
However, if the Warriors are their normal selves, what can the Spurs do but curse the fates and wonder why their best regular season coincided with the NBA’s best regular-season team out in Oakland?
Speaking of Warrior-altered realities in the 2016 NBA…
2 – IF THE CAVS WIN THE EAST, THEY SHOULD FEEL GOOD ABOUT THEIR SEASON — YES, EVEN IF THE WARRIORS SWEEP THEM IN JUNE
It’s true that the firing of David Blatt will look bad if the Cavs get swept (or five-gamed) by the Warriors in the NBA Finals, but in the bigger picture, a sixth straight NBA Finals appearance for LeBron James, and a second straight Finals appearance for Cleveland, would lift the Cavs beyond the first LeBron period of 2007-2010, when the team never did make a second trip to the Finals.
The Warriors showed in their 132-98 win in Cleveland last January how good they really are. The Cavs aren’t the title favorite, and they frankly shouldn’t even be the second choice. The San Antonio Spurs are probably better (but we likely won’t get to find out for sure in June).
The city of Cleveland wants that pro sports championship, and the depth of that hunger will create a feeling of disappointment if the Cavs lose in the Finals. Yet, Clevelanders should simply be glad the NBA hasn’t re-seeded the playoffs 1-16, regardless of conference. Cleveland probably wouldn’t even make the Finals under that adjusted hypothetical scenario.
Win the East. Play in June. Give it a go. The media will say how much of a disappointment it is, and how much of a failure it is, but the inconvenient truth is that the Cavs should feel satisfied — not completely fulfilled, mind you, but reasonably content — if they get through the East.
(Whether they WILL feel reasonably content is another matter.)
1 – IF THE GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS DO NOT FACE A GAME 7 IN THESE PLAYOFFS AND WIN THE TITLE, THEY’RE LIKELY THE BEST SINGLE-SEASON TEAM OF ALL TIME
The greatest postseason achievement in Michael Jordan’s career is that he never faced Game 7 in any of his six NBA Finals victories.
Jordan’s ability to be great enough to avoid the Game 7 crucible — especially in 1993 against Phoenix and 1998 against Utah — is one of the finest and foremost affirmations of his excellence.
With that in mind, the Golden State Warriors’ path to increased immortality is clear: If they avoid Game 7 in the Finals, and in every other series they play, they will likely deserve to be seen as the best single-season team of all time.
Maybe an injury to Kawhi Leonard or LeBron would change things, but in the absence of that kind of event, the Warriors — as long as they win all four series convincingly — would heighten their place in hoops history…
… no matter how many 1996 Bulls apologists argue to the contrary.
