A word about expectations is merited before the playoffs begin.
A word within a word: Let’s divide expectations into two parts… at least in some instances.
Fans and pundits will have their own expectations, while teams will internally carry their separate sets of standards. Naturally, everyone wants to win it all, but only one team can, and only one opponent can play that team in the NBA Finals.
Being both realistic AND aspirational is the key here. We’ll try to honor that fundamental tension in this list of expectations for all 16 playoff teams.
The first few will be easy. The last two will be as well. A few in between will also be clear cut. Most of these teams aren’t hard to peg. A small minority represents the challenge of this exercise.
13 – 16: DALLAS MAVERICKS, HOUSTON ROCKETS, MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, DETROIT PISTONS
These first four teams simply cannot expect to win their first-round series, for one reason or another. The main goal is to be competitive — avoiding a sweep if possible, taking a series to six games as the best-case scenario.
If any team faces a little more pressure to avoid being embarrassed, it’s the Rockets, easily the worst underachievers in the quartet. If any team has more upside to gain from a strong showing, it’s the Pistons, clearly the team with the best future prospects in this group.
11 – 12: CHARLOTTE HORNETS and PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Steve Clifford produced one of the best coaching jobs in the league this season. The Hornets have already overachieved, so unlike other mid-level seeds in the East, they are playing with house money in the playoffs. A series loss would linger for only a little while, barring an extraordinary turn of events. The only other playoff teams which have overachieved as much as the Hornets are the Portland Trail Blazers and Dallas Mavericks. Since Dallas is an aging team, Charlotte and Portland have less to lose in round one.
The Trail Blazers could legitimately beat the Clippers if L.A.’s not sufficiently locked in and fails to get enough from its supporting cast (surrounding Chris Paul and Blake Griffin). Yet, no one will hold it against Portland if it fails to win. The same goes for the Hornets against the Miami Heat.
10: INDIANA PACERS
The Pacers were a bit of a disappointment this season, at least to the extent that they failed to get a much higher seed. They went 1-7 in overtime games, and a modest 5-3 record would have given them more wins than the third-seeded Miami Heat. Indiana failed to close down tight games in the regular season, a point of frustration throughout the organization.
Yet, that’s the very reason expectations should be higher for the Pacers than other lower seeds in the first round — that, and the fact that the historically weak Toronto Raptors are the opponent in round one.
Indiana can definitely win this series, if only because the Pacers should be able to play close games. Can Indiana own the final three minutes of fourth quarters? It’s doubtful that a leopard can change its spots this late in the journey, but Toronto has to prove it can win at this time of year.
The Pacers should expect to win this series. Whether they succeed in the attempt or not? We’ll find out soon enough.
7 – 9: MIAMI HEAT, ATLANTA HAWKS, and BOSTON CELTICS
The Miami Heat are a trendy pick to reach the East Finals, but the absence of Chris Bosh should realistically tamp down expectations, whether people want to admit to that or not. The Heat represent a good example of the divide between what expectations ARE and what they SHOULD BE as the playoffs arrive.
The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks would both love to beat LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round, but they first have to get there. Failing to do so would sting. Both organizations could live with an offseason which follows a loss to the Cavs. Neither could easily stomach a first-round exit.
6 – LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
A lot more is said about the Clippers’ outlook here.
In terms of expectations, they should themselves expect to beat the Warriors, if only because the Clipper franchise needs to make the West Finals to move forward and evolve beyond the demons of the past, demons resurrected by last year’s ugly collapse against the Houston Rockets.
Yet, while the athletes and coaches in the locker room should expect to do great things, no pundit or fan should expect this team to get past Golden State. The Clippers just need to compete well enough (pushing the Warriors to at least six games) to know that they can catch the champions in 2017.
4 and 5 – OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER and TORONTO RAPTORS
Oklahoma City Thunder’s Kevin Durant soars in to dunk against the Toronto Raptors during second half NBA basketball action in Toronto on Monday, March 28, 2016. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press via AP)
These two teams have to get to the conference finals, but should not be expected to win their conferences.
For Toronto, there are no excuses with a weak East field in the 3, 6 and 7 seeding slots. The Raptors need to make their first-ever East Finals, period.
For Oklahoma City, it’s true that the San Antonio Spurs will be favored over them in the West semifinals, but the Thunder have blitzed the Spurs before. If they don’t at least get a crack at the Warriors in the West Finals, they’ll have absolutely nothing to point to in the way of 2016 achievements. Much like Indiana, the Thunder were wretched in close games this season. If they can just flip their fourth-quarter script, they can beat the Spurs and become Golden State’s most formidable obstacle this spring.
Let’s see if OKC can at least earn that reunion with the Warriors in late May.
3 – CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
The city of Cleveland desperately wants the whole enchilada, but let’s face facts: Golden State and (to a lesser but still real extent) San Antonio have redrawn the parameters of reasonable expectations.
The Cavs have to win the East. If they do, they will have done all right and can be happy with what they’ve achieved. Not winning the East would be the true rock-bottom disaster LeBron and the franchise simply cannot afford.
If the Cavs win the East, they can logically and credibly say they’ll come back in 2017 with a better chance to win it all. If they don’t, the idea of LeBron leaving Cleveland a second time would gain traction and (worse) legitimacy.
2 – SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Anything less than a championship would be disappointing for a 67-win team.
And yet…
1 – GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
As much as the Spurs might feel the desperate need to win it all and validate their season, Golden State bears the most pressure of all. The Warriors have more to gain in victory, and more to lose in defeat, than any other team.
If they win it all, they become (probably) the best single-season team of all time.
If they lose, they will absorb a shattering disappointment which could make them that much tougher in the future… but could also open the door for a regression and a sense of crisis in future playoff runs.
