When we get to this stage of the postseason, we expect close games. Two elite teams playing each other at the top of their games, you expect a close, entertaining game every night. It feels that quite often these expectations are not met.
Sure last year’s seven-game series ended with a fourth-quarter comeback, but the series was decided by 67 points, including a 22-point blowout in Game Six. The closest game was that four-point game in the series finale. It was an exciting series, but none of the games went down to the final possession. Not like this year’s series.
In the 2011 Finals between the Miami Heat and Dallas Mavericks, we have already seen three games go down to the last possession in what has become one of the closest and most competitive Finals in recent history. Rarely do you see Finals that are this close (at least on the scoreboard) from game to game.
This year’s Finals have been decided by 15 total points (eight in Game One), or about four points per game. That is incredibly close. There has been no Finals that has been this close since the NBA Finals went to the 2-3-2 format in 1985.
None.
There is usually a blowout game in there to muddle up the numbers or skew the final average margin. If you want to take those blowouts out (just one), this is the closest Finals since Michael Jordan’s last championship in 1998. The average margin of victory, except for Chicago’s 42-point victory in Game Three, was 3.0 points per game.
With the way this series has gone, we are entering historic competitiveness in individual Finals games. Certainly in recent memory.
The last three games have come down to the last possession with Dirk Nowitzki finishing off on two and missing at the buzzer on one. Even Game One, the Heat needed a dominant fourth quarter to pull away and bury the Mavericks. And remember after that first game, we all thought the Heat might be able to steam roll the Mavericks and run away with the series easily.
It certainly felt like that in Games Two and Three when Miami went up by double digits and took seemingly commanding leads. Dallas though has a lot of resolve and that is going to keep all these games really close. The Mavericks are not ever willing to pack up a game and leave it alone. To them, it feels, there is always a chance until the game is over.
| Year (Teams) |
Avg. Margin of Victory |
Year (Teams) |
Avg. Margin of Victory |
| 2010 LAL v. BOS |
9.6 (67 pts., 7 gms) |
2009 LAL v. ORL |
11.0 (55 pts., 5 gms) |
| 2008 BOS v. LAL |
10.3 (62 pts., 6 gms) |
2007 SAS v. CLE |
6.0 (24 pts., 4 gms) |
| 2006 MIA v. DAL |
9.0 (54 pts., 6 gms) |
2005 SAS v. DET |
14.4 (101 pts., 7 gms) |
| 2004 DET v. LAL |
12.2 (61 pts., 5 gms) |
2003 SAS v. NJN |
6.8 (41 pts., 6 gms) |
| 2002 LAL v. NJN |
9.3 (37 pts., 4 gms) |
2001 LAL v. PHI |
9.2 (46 pts., 5 gms) |
| 2000 LAL v. IND |
12.2 (73 pts., 6 gms) |
1999 SAS v. NYK |
8.2 (41 pts., 5 gms) |
| 1998 CHI v. UTA |
9.5 (57 pts., 6 gms) |
1997 CHI v. UTA |
6.0 (36 pts., 6 gms) |
| 1996 CHI v. SEA |
10.5 (63 pts., 6 gms) |
1995 HOU v. ORL |
7.0 (28 pts., 4 gms) |
| 1994 HOU v. NYK |
6.1 (43 pts., 7 gms) |
1993 CHI v. PHO |
6.0 (36 pts., 6 gms) |
That has certainly kept things exciting. After Miami went up nine in the fourth quarter last night it was expected Dallas would come back and give us a ride.
The Mavericks certainly are going to continue to do that, it is in their make up. And the Heat have to find a way to close them.
As fans though, you cannot ask for very much more. There have been so few Finals series that had an average margin below 10 points per game.
Just 14 of the 25 NBA Finals had an average scoring margin below 10.0 points per game. Only four of the last 25 Finals had an average scoring margin of 6.0 points or fewer. This feels very surprising considering these are supposedly the two best teams in the league.
Scoring margin is not the be-all, end-all of competitiveness in a Finals. But it is indicative of something. Especially considering how many of these games end in blowouts. The competitiveness and excitement surrounding these Finals certainly has to make David Stern happy. The Finals have gained the highest ratings for any Finals in a while now.
There just are not that many close Finals or, if there are, one team runs out of gas at the end.
In 2008, the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics played a classic set of five games that included the largest comeback in Finals history from the Celtics. The average margin of victory in that series was 5.5 points per game. Then Boston won by 29 points in a decisive Game Six to win the championship.
Other extremely competitive series include (surprisingly) the San Antonio Spurs sweep over the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2007. They won their four games by a combined 24 points. The Spurs 2003 Finals victory over the Nets was also a relatively close series. The six-game set was played with a 6.8 average win margin. The Chicago Bulls’ titles over the Phoenix Suns and the Seattle Supersonics in 1993 and 1996 each had a 6.0 average win margin. And the Detroit Pistons’ five-game victory over the Portland Trail Blazers in 1990 featured a total margin of 27 points or 5.4 points per game.
Again, a blowout in Game Five would skew the numbers of this series. But it is clear even taking out these blowouts that we are witnessing one of the closest and hotly contested Finals in recent history.
My only advice is to sit back and enjoy.
(photo: daylife.com)
