The Golden State Warriors ended 48 hours of speculation finally moving Monta Ellis and acquiring the center they so coveted (even if he is still injured). Late Tuesday, the Warriors traded the high-scoring Ellis, along with Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown to the Bucks for former top overall pick Andrew Bogut and veteran guard Stephen Jackson.
At first glance, it looks like the Bucks got the better end of this deal. In essence, Milwaukee traded an injured player who has shown borderline All-Star potential and a player that was wallowing and sitting mostly on the bench. What Milwaukee gets is one of the elite scorers in the league and two decent defenders — with Udoh having a ton of potential to develop.
With Milwaukee fighting for a spot in the postseason and developing a faster-paced, offensive style this year tahn in year’s past under Scott Skiles, Ellis seems to fit better. Bogut was a top player in a weak draft class, but has not quite panned out. Besides, his injuries have kept him from really being a great player. The Bucks seem willing to go all in for the Playoffs this season and test out a crazy offensive scoring backcourt of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis.
Yes, this deal very much will hinge on whether Ellis and Jennings can co-exist in the same backcourt.
Jennings is already a high-usage player, posting a 26 percent usage rate this year in averaging 19.1 points per game and 40.6 percent field goal shooter. Ellis is one of the few players in the league with a usage rate greater than 30 percent. Ellis at least scores a little bit more, pouring in 21.9 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting.
These two players are obviously going to have to learn to share a little bit if the Bucks are going to continue winning and make the Playoffs. If the Bucks do not get back to the postseason, this trade will surely be seen as a failure. Especially considering Ellis has an early termination option after the 2013 season. And, next year, they may very well miss Bogut, who averaged 15.9 points per game and 10.2 rebounds per game in the 2010 run to make the playoffs.
If Bogut, who has missed 76 games in the three seasons before this one and played in only 12 games to this point this year, comes back healthy, the Bucks might really regret this deal. Golden State has been searching for a decent defensive and offensive option at center to line up with David Lee. Getting rid of Ellis will free up Stephen Curry, when he gets healthy, to be the primary scorer. It should also free up minutes for rookie Klay Thompson.
In this sense, Golden State also got what it wanted, although it makes them worse in the short term.
Again, Milwaukee’s value in this deal will be determined by how Jennings and Ellis can co-exist. If it does not work though, Ellis will likely be gone.
If there is a loser in this deal, it potentially is Ellis.
Ellis was pretty convinced he was getting moved to a contender. Jarrod Rudolph of RealGM was on Magic DriveTime in Orlando on Tuesday and said Ellis had all but packed his bags for Orlando, thinking he was going to play with Dwight Howard on a Playoff team and a potential title contender. When those conversations broke down — Golden State seemed adamant about getting Howard back in the deal — Ellis was very frustrated and, for the first time, vented some of his trade frustrations to the media.
Before the trade, he opined to Marcus Thompson II of the Contra Costa Times that he wanted to play for a championship-level team like Orlando or Chicago (h/t Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News). It does not appear he got his wish in this deal.
What this trade seems really to amount to was a player and a team finally parting ways before the dreaded free agency decision comes. Ellis has an early termination option in 2013. At this point, it is safe to say he will exercise it and test free agency.
Milwaukee has to make the playoffs in this deal. That is the risk it took. Next year, the Bucks probably have to do more if they intend to keep Ellis.
Either way, it seems that Milwaukee is restarting its building project. The team has a season and a half to see what Brandon Jennings can do with another perimeter scorer with him. Because there is also no guarantee that Jennings will sign an extension when he becomes eligible.
This trade might help in the short term but winters can be long in Milwaukee.
