Crossover Chronicles is a relatively new blog, so we decided it was a good idea to introduce you to the crew. We’re doing that in a new feature called “Writer-Palooza.” For the next few days, we will feature one writer, introducing him to you via an original piece, his favorite basketball video, and a wildcard post on any topic that he wants.
Today we feature Philip Rossman-Reich. You can find him on Twitter here.
It has been on our minds since the 2009. The superstar.
Who is the next one available? Where will he go?
Ever since the New York media launched the speculation about LeBron James heading to the Big Apple, it has seemingly been all about the potential of where the next superstars will go. It did not seem to be this big of a deal or take up this much attention until the LeBron James saga, not that he did anything to quiet that discussion.
Now that James has “taken his talents to South Beach” to play with fellow All Stars Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, the volume on these proposed moves gets even louder.
There was Carmelo Anthony flatly exercising his leverage to play where he wanted and retain the ever elusive Larry Bird rights by unequivocally telling Denver he was gone and forcing his way to a place he would sign long-term — namely, New York. There was Utah fearing the eventual leverage Deron Williams could exercise before his free agency year and shipping him out of Utah before the team was forced to.
Then there was the Chris Paul saga earlier this season. Again, all to get something for superstar players before they bolt on their own.
The interplay of money, loyalty, desire for winning and, sometimes, just plain greed is the thing that turns people off to professional sports.
And so, it left us with the latest free agency saga. That of Dwight Howard.
Not a day goes by when someone asks me — I run Orlando Magic Daily and still vividly remember my reaction as a seven-year-old to Shaquille O’Neal’s departure — what the latest is in the Dwight Howard saga. It is a fact of life as a Magic fan right now and someone who follows that team. The future is inexorably tied to one man’s decision or the decision to send him away and return to the bottom of the league or, perhaps worse, mediocrity.
Emotions run the gamut. And I swear I have said just about everything in local comedian Scooter Magruder’s video “Stuff Magic Fans Say” (which is above). It is a daily tug-of-war.
In a lot of people’s minds, the precedent Miami set has everyone thinking superstars. It has become all about which superstars can pair up the fastest. We saw the Knicks trade all of their young talent and gut their team for the superstar pairing. We have seen the Nets clear the deck hoping to bring in the same type of superstar pairing of Deron Williams and Dwight Howard next summer. The Mavericks and Lakers have sought salary relief to try and cash in on the last few years Kobe Bryant has.
But is this all worht it? Is the perception that star players are destined to leave really the answer for winning championships? Does it buy good will with fans? Does it work?
Not all the time, that is for sure.
Miami might still be the best team in the league, but the team does not have a championship in the first year of its experiment. The Mavericks were a more complete team and had the experience of playing together for several years, plus the fortitude and commitment to play together at all times. Miami might still win a championship (I would expect the team to), but six or seven (… you know where I am going) seems out of the picture. Especially with rumblings that LeBron James now knows what trying to share the ball means at times.
But, take a look at the Knicks. New York shows that it is not necessarily the stars on your team, but the supporting cast you have around them and the way the team fits together matters more than the marquee players on the roster.
Everyone suspected that Amar’e Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony would not fit well together because the two required a ton of shots to be effective and worked mostly out of isolation sets. That has proven to be correct at this point.
Names are not everything — it will be interesting to see how well Jeremy Lin plays once Stoudemire and Anthony return.
Basketball is a team sport. Offenses do not work with solely isolation sets. It takes crisp and quick ball movement.
To me, that is what the lockout-shortened season has proven so far. Three of the top teams in the league lack that marquee star. Indiana has a relatively inefficient Danny Granger and a strong defense leading the way. The same could be said for Philadelphia and Denver. Those teams are committed to working together and playing defense to win.
That was what the Mavericks did to topple the superstar-heavy Heat in last year’s finals.
This is not to say that you don’t need the best players to win in the NBA. The numbers clearly show that you do, as Tobias J. Moskowitz and L. John Wertheim write in Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played And Games Are Won (h/t Nate Drexler of MagicBasketball.net):
A team with no starting all-star on the roster has virtually no chance — precisely, it’s 0.9 percent — of winning the NBA championship. More than 85 percent of NBA finals involve a superstar player and more than 90 percent of NBA titles belong to a team with a superstar. […]
One first-team all-star on the roster yields a 7.1 percent chance of winning a championship and a 16 percent chance of making it to the finals. A team fortunate to have two first-team all-star players stands a 25 percent chance of winning a championship and a 37 percent chance of making the finals. On the rare occasion when a team was somehow able to attract three first-team all-stars, it won a championship 39 percent of the time and made the finals 77 percent of the time.
Yes, it helps to have one of the best players in the league. It helps a ton. It is almost a necessity except for rare occasions — like the 2004 Pistons.
But what is also clear from the teams succeeding this year and countless Playoffs from year’s past is that the championship is won and lost with the team constructed around the superstar. Joining forces with other “star” players offers no guarantee of a championship.
It seems like the “teaming up” strategy needs careful planning and revision from the general manager and not the players playing general manager. The superstar player is probably not in as much control as he thinks.
