The Atlanta Hawks stand at the center of several recognizable paths after three games in the 2015 NBA Playoffs. Whether that’s a good or bad thing for them? We don’t know… but we’ll soon begin to collect much more valuable and revealing information.
The final two rounds of the NBA playoffs represent showcase events in which elite foes tear at each other. For this reason, it’s a lot easier for the casual fan to get excited about the conference finals and the NBA Finals. However, the first two rounds of the playoffs are more informative in that they reveal the identities of a larger swath of NBA teams. For those who followed the whole of the league throughout the regular season, these weeks in late April and the first half of May fill in more gaps and paint the picture of the Association from coast to coast. The last two rounds of the playoffs are reserved for the big boys, after everyone else has gone home.
Speaking of “big boys,” the Atlanta Hawks — especially in their injured state — aren’t expected by most to get past the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. However, this season will certainly be a failure if the Hawks can’t at least make their first-ever Eastern Conference Finals. Where do the Hawks stand through three games against the Brooklyn Nets? The short answer is simple: a precarious position. The longer and more complete answer? It’s better to refrain from offering one at this point.
Only now will we begin to see what this team is truly made of. The journey of a 60-win team as it struggles to play well against a sub-.500 No. 8 seed is why the first round of the playoffs — even when dulled by a lack of elegant basketball — makes for compelling theater. How will a team blessed by a magic carpet ride through 82 games now adjust to the reality of scuffling against a team it was supposed to demolish?
*
At first glance, there are several obvious reasons why the Atlanta Hawks aren’t playing very well right now. Al Horford’s injured fingers are getting in the way of his mid-range shooting, which is an important component of the Hawks’ offensive attack — not just for the points it provides, but because those 16-footers space the floor and force defenses to remain honest.
The Hawks are also missing Thabo Sefolosha, and Paul Millsap — while better than he looked in Game 1 — still doesn’t seem to be all the way back with his shoulder. Add in a pinch or four of playoff pressure, plus the fact that the Brooklyn Nets pose tough matchups with Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson, and it’s understandable that the Nets would be competitive with the Hawks.
Brooklyn is a classic example in which the sum of several very talented individual parts has not created a fluid, functioning team. The decay of Deron Williams (more on that shortly) and the inability of Johnson to display the level of form he showed in the 2014 playoffs have held this team back. Mirza Teletovic’s health problems haven’t helped, and the departure of Paul Pierce robbed this team of the leader who kept guys in line and accountable. Yet, even with all of this team’s problems, it’s hard to see how Brooklyn — with Lopez in the middle and Thad Young in the mix — could have been bad enough to fail to attain even 40 wins (forget about .500) in the Eastern Conference.
The Nets are a supreme puzzle: Clearly owning some impressive individual talent yet just as clearly coexisting in a dysfunctional manner, one can simultaneously identify Brooklyn as a team that should cause problems for opponents… and as a team that should get rolled by a top seed if that top seed is carrying itself the way it ought to.
Safe to say, the Atlanta Hawks are not comporting themselves with the composure or the studied calm of a top seed. They haven’t yet paid a real price for it, leading 2-1 in this series, but after losing on Saturday in Game 3, perhaps the Hawks are finally ready to take flight.
This leads us to an examination of where the Hawks are going to go over the next two weeks, before the conference finals arrive.
*
Friday here at Crossover Chronicles, new writer John Cannon debuted with a piece on why Golden State’s comeback win over New Orleans in Game 3 of that series might not have been the best thing for the Warriors. Cannon noted that the Warriors snapped back into attention and played their best basketball of the regular season after losing — not after lucky and close wins, but genuine losses. We now get to see if a loss marked by terrible shooting and awful point-guard play — compounded by the lack of mid-range makes from Horford — will turn the Hawks back into the 60-win team they became over five and a half months.
However, if Atlanta thinks that a loss is all it takes to return to playing at a high level, the Hawks need to realize that Brooklyn might have inadvertently stumbled on something in Game 3: Not playing Deron Williams — perma-benching him, basically — could unlock this team’s potential.
Earlier this week, Crossover Chronicles staff writer Bart Doan noted that the departure of Rajon Rondo could unlock the Dallas Mavericks’ best brand of ball. While James Harden denied Dallas a victory, there’s no question that Rondo’s absence made Dallas a far better offensive team. Monta Ellis and Dirk Nowitzki both played at a very high level at the offensive end. Had Dallas opted for a Rondo-free lineup a few games earlier, perhaps the Mavs wouldn’t be about to exit these playoffs.
Given the way Deron Williams played in Wednesday’s Game 2 (2 points, 1-of-7 shooting) and then on Saturday (3 points, 1-of-8), his injury later in Game 3 could actually help the Nets. Brooklyn blitzed Atlanta with Jarrett Jack at point guard in place of Williams, dominating the fourth quarter to make this the second non-sweep series of the first round. If Nets coach Lionel Hollins is willing to put Deron on the pine, the complexion of this series could change in ways that aren’t comfortable for the Hawks.
*
It’s quite noticeable… and quite disturbing if you’re an Atlanta fan: The Hawks, as a top seed, are dangerously close to following the path of the 2014 Indiana Pacers, a team that gained the top seed in the East; looked like a true powerhouse in the middle of the season; and then became stale late in the journey, laboring through the playoffs. The Hawks were the team the Pacers barely defeated in round one a year ago, so they know what it’s like to be the 8 seed with nothing to lose. Now, Atlanta is on the other side of this series, and exposure to the dynamics of a 1-8 matchup has done anything but liberate the Hawks thus far.
Forget about a second-round series against the Washington Wizards — if the Hawks don’t win Game 4 on Monday, there will be fresh questions about Atlanta’s ability to even go that deep into the playoffs.
Sounds pretty bad, right? Well… maybe. However, you also have to recall one other way in which the 2014 NBA Playoffs could re-emerge in 2015, and this is what the Hawks (and their fans) are hoping will be true.
Last year, the San Antonio Spurs genuinely struggled with a tricky matchup and their own inconsistent form in the first round of the postseason against the Dallas Mavericks. The Spurs were a fastball pitcher who just didn’t have good, late movement in the strike zone, or a tennis player whose first serves just weren’t popping or hitting the corners of both service boxes. San Antonio had to use its slider and change-up while relying on patient groundstrokes to get through that series by any means necessary. Once the Spurs did escape Dallas in seven games, though, they relaxed. They became the team they had been during the regular season. They shrugged off pressure and were able to lock in at both ends of the floor. They were briefly pushed by Oklahoma City in road games, but they never faced a tougher series last spring than the one they encountered in the first round.
Mike Budenholzer might talk with Gregg Popovich this weekend about handling round one of the playoffs. Whether he does or not, however, it’s instructive to note that “Coach Bud” — during a timeout in Game 3 on Saturday — didn’t feel it necessary to give his players elaborate instructions. “Just PLAY!”, he told his players. The exhortation didn’t work, but the simplicity of the message should not be lost on the Hawks.
If they can hit the kinds of shots they regularly made during the season, any other questions about psychology, tactics, or the possibility of a rearranged Brooklyn lineup will fade away… as will worries that the Hawks are about to follow the 2014 Pacers from a qualitative standpoint in these playoffs.
Do we know which way the road is about to bend for the Hawks? We don’t… and that’s why a mostly disappointing first round of the playoffs will bring us a compelling event in Brooklyn on Monday night. Game 4 of Hawks-Nets will mark one of the first truly revealing moments for the 2015 Atlanta Hawks. We are all waiting to see how this team — utterly unfamiliar with carrying the weight of substantial playoff expectations — answers the bell at Barclays Center.
