After defeating the Utah Jazz last night, 106-103, the Golden State Warriors are now 19-0 on the season.
What we’ve seen thus far from Golden State – and particularly Stephen Curry – has been a spectacular display of basketball, and the Warriors are clearly the favorites to win the NBA title again.
We know the Warriors can and will be beaten at some point this season, and it will assuredly be a big deal when they finally drop a game. They will have an off night shooting, or perhaps their opponents will shoot lights out and knock them off, but can anyone beat them at their best? Is there a particular style of play that gives them trouble?
Last season, the Warriors won 67 games in the regular season, and they went 16-5 in the postseason. That’s absurd. The Grizzlies gave them a little trouble in round two, but they couldn’t shoot well enough to be enough of a threat to take them down. Houston tried to match tempo with Golden State, and the Warriors eliminated them in only five games. Cleveland won two games in the Finals thanks to a few superhuman performances from LeBron, but the absence of Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving proved to be too much for the Cavs to overcome.
The NBA has evolved into a pace-and-space league, with most teams employing small-ball lineups that include multiple threats from the outside. The Warriors have perfected this, and the so-called Death Lineup with Steph, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, and Draymond Green is about as close to unstoppable as it gets in the NBA. Cleveland and San Antonio could try similar lineups that could beat Golden State on occasion, but no team in the NBA can match that small-ball lineup and beat them in a seven-game series.
The Spurs made the biggest offseason acquisition when they signed LaMarcus Aldridge, and it seemed this was the move for the future of San Antonio and its championship aspirations. However, after watching the Spurs play for the last month, and after watching a team like Utah give the Warriors some trouble with its big man tandem of Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, it now feels as though Gregg Popovich thinks going big is the way to beat Golden State in the playoffs.
The Spurs and Warriors don’t play until late January, and even then it’s unlikely we will see Popovich reveal his strategy. However, if the Spurs use a lineup involving Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Duncan, and Aldridge, I think this would give the Warriors a lot of trouble on the defensive end. Draymond and Barnes would have difficulty guarding Duncan and Aldridge, and if Leonard’s shooting continues to improve, that’s another problem for Golden State.
Of course, San Antonio would have trouble guarding Golden State as well. Both Duncan and Aldridge would have difficulty guarding the Steph-Draymond pick and roll – which, for the record, is absolutely lethal – and the Warriors seemingly always find a way to get the matchups they want on the offensive end. The Spurs have a very versatile roster, and they could try a lineup with Boris Diaw and either Duncan or Aldridge that might work well against the Death Lineup.
Aside from the Spurs, the Cavs might have the only other roster that has a chance of defeating the Warriors in a series. The triumvirate of LeBron, Kyrie, and Love is a nightmare to defend for any team, but Love and Kyrie are limited defensively. Can you imagine Steph and Draymond running a pick and roll on Kyrie and Love? Yikes. Cleveland’s best crunch-time lineup might end up being LeBron, Kyrie, Love, J.R. Smith, and Tristan Thompson, and I just don’t see that getting it done against the Warriors.
The Clippers have one of the league’s most talented rosters, but Doc Rivers also hasn’t figured out that he can’t play DeAndre Jordan in crunch time against the Warriors. Part of the Clips’ problem against the Warriors is mental, but it’s a huge problem when they can’t play a $20 million guy in the last five minutes because he can’t shoot free throws well enough. I’m really not sure what the Clips’ best lineup would be down the stretch against GSW. Obviously CP3, Redick, and Blake Griffin would be involved, but can they depend on Paul Pierce? Josh Smith? Lance Stephenson? The talent is there, but the chemistry certainly isn’t right now.
Oklahoma City is a team that can match up with Golden State athletically, but unless Billy Donovan improves greatly between now and the postseason, I don’t see the Thunder being creative enough with their sets and lineups to beat the Warriors in a series. Any team with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant is a threat, but seriously, have you seen the Thunder this year? I loved Billy Donovan in college, but thus far, he hasn’t even been an upgrade over Scott Brooks.
Many teams will try to match the Warriors’ small-ball lineup, and the majority of those teams will fail. A hot shooting night could derail them every now and then, but it’s probably unrealistic to expect a team to outshoot the Warriors four games out of seven. It will likely take a team with at least two reliable bigs, plus steady outside shooting, plus great defense, plus great coaching.
It seems San Antonio is the only team which fits that formula right now, although it’s certainly still very early in the season. The list of teams that have the roster and the coaching to take down the Warriors is nearly as small as the number of losses for Golden State this season.
