We should be better than this.
This assertion is one of the last things an NBA head coach probably wants to hear from the front office and ownership. Sometimes this assertion is fair, perhaps in the case of the Orlando Magic, but other times it’s an unreasonable one, such as the Sacramento Kings’ current head coaching situation. For Magic head coach Jacque Vaughn, it’s an assertion that will ultimately culminate in the end of his tenure as the head coach of the Orlando Magic just like so many other head coaches before him.
The team should be better.
Vaughn has always been in a very tough spot, one that is eerily similar to that of Boston Celtics’ head coach Brad Stevens. It’s not a perfect comparison, sure, when you look at Stevens’ success at the NCAA level with Butler, but the two are very close in age (Vaughn is 39 while Stevens is 38) and both took their current jobs knowing they were in for multiple lottery-riddled seasons. The big difference, though, is Stevens’ Celtic’s are exceeding expectations while Vaughn’s Magic are failing to meet those similar expectations.
Stevens has Boston playing league-average (or close to it) basketball on both ends of the floor; the C’s are 19th in offensive efficiency and 16th in defensive efficiency, while Vaughn’s group in Orlando is flounder on both ends of the floor; the Magic are 27th in offensive efficiency and 25th in defensive efficiency. The former is playing Evan Turner at point guard, at times, and has had to deal with the front office trading away his two best players mid-season. (The former is also not playing Gerald Wallace 14 minutes a night, while the latter is playing Willie Green 14 minutes a night.)
Simply put, the Magic shouldn’t be this bad.
But what if they should?
The Magic’s roster is littered with offensively-limited players, most notably the teams’ two lottery picks this season in Elfrid Payton and Aaron Gordon, so the poor offensive efficiency numbers shouldn’t be all that surprising. Orlando Magic general manager Rob Hennigan has assembled a roster that’s incredibly athletic, filled with defensive upside but still don’t possess the guy for Vaughn to build around. (No, Tobias Harris does not qualify.)
That matters.
The Magic have been in tank mode ever since Hennigan was hired and Dwight Howard was traded away to Los Angeles. They just haven’t had any luck in the lottery in finding their next franchise guy. To their credit, the team hasn’t panicked and altered their “tank now” approach for a much more unreliable win-now approach; firing Vaughn mid-season might represent more of the latter than the former. Why fire the second-youngest coach in the NBA, mid-season especially, before you’ve stumbled onto the guy or are ready to start trying to get into the playoffs? It’s a bit of a contradiction, right?
Maybe the front office thinks the defense should be better than just 27th in defensive efficiency with the roster they’ve assembled thus far. That’s probably a fair assertion to make. Or maybe seeing Willie Green and Ben Gordon on the floor for 28 minutes a night just isn’t something the front office and ownership can ignore. But what’s most perplexing about the Vaughn era in Orlando is how well he’s developed the Magic’s young talent.
On Vaughn’s watch: Nikola Vucevic has become an all-star caliber center, Victor Oladipo is averaging a 16-3-3 line on 45 percent shooting, Tobias Harris has evolved into a wing who will probably command a max salary next summer and under his tutelage Evan Fournier has played well enough that the Aaron Afflalo-Fournier trade looks less lopsided with every Fournier three-pointer. For a guy who only was an assistant just two years before getting his first head coaching job, the way Vaughn has developed Orlando’s young players is impressive. Yes, even if it hasn’t translated to wins rather than losses. (Which, again, is something Orlando’s front office wants until they find the next guy who can lead them for the next 10-plus seasons.)
Still, Vaughn’s rotation choices are peculiar, the efficiency numbers are disheartening and when you watch Orlando you get the sense that, once again, this team could be better.
Perhaps that’s why Orlando is likely to fire Vaughn in the very near future; not to win now but just to be a little better. So as to ensure all of their lottery picks develop as best as they possibly can, which is a reasonable take for the Orlando front office to have. Kind of like, “When we finally have some luck in the lottery and find the guy the rest of the roster, head coach included, needs to be ready to make big strides.” I think that’s a perfectly reasonable thought process to have, if that happens to be the way the Magic higher-ups are thinking.
If the team hires Scott Skiles, Mark Jackson, or whomever next summer that maybe adds five to ten wins for the club next season, at most, unless they luck into Jahlil Okafor or Karl Towns this summer. Maybe that’s all the front office wants to see right now: a team that’s still lottery-bound, like the Celtics, but showing enough on-court consistency and progress that you feel good about the direction of the team while you wait patiently for the next franchise-altering talent to stumble into your lap. It’s not a unique strategy by any means but it’s one you can understand and sign up for if you’re a fan of a franchise following this approach.
Vaughn hasn’t been a disaster, but he hasn’t been a beacon of hope either. That’s what will ultimately be the reason as to why he won’t get to see this rebuilding project through. His youth and inexperience roaming the sidelines was fine in the beginning, but the Magic have reached the point where they can no longer deal with the growing pains of their players and their coaching staff.
And like most cases in the NBA, the coach is always the first to go.
