I’ve been picking NBA Over/Under win totals (actually every sport) for as long as I can remember. It’s a shtick I stole from Mike & the Mad Dog, which was the first place I ever heard of such a thing. Here are my selections for the upcoming 2015-16 NBA season using sportsbook.ag’s lines.
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Milwaukee Bucks Under 44.5
The Bucks are a trendy team to make a jump in a pitiful Eastern Conference, but I don’t see it. They only went 41-41 last season and I’m not sure they got any better. They have to figure out how to make a lack of shooting on the court work together with Michael Carter-Williams, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greg Monroe and Jabari Parker, who could see significant minutes together. Do they put development of their young players aside and go with Jerryd Bayless, O.J. Mayo and Greivis Vasquez, which probably helps them in the short term? Either way, head coach Jason Kidd is in a tough spot, and I think it’s more likely they win in the mid-to-high 30s rather than 40s.
New Orleans Pelicans Under 48
Man, that’s a big number for the Pelicans. I love Anthony Davis as much as the rest of you, but there’s legit questions about the supporting cast. It’s not about the talent, it’s about the injured talent. What can you rely on from Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon? I don’t know the answer to this and that’s what makes it hard to see this team winning 49 games in a loaded Western Conference. Not to mention the most games Davis has played in his three-year career is 68. If Davis misses another 10 to 18 games that’s a tough spot for New Orleans to deal with. If everything goes perfect there’s definitely a scenario they hit the over, but the the negative angles seem more likely.
Phoenix Suns Over 36.5
I’m bullish on the Suns. Most of the concerns about Phoenix are in regards to potential problems we have no way of analyzing. I love how the roster fits together from a talent perspective with solid players that have complimentary skills. If it all comes together for the Suns I could see them blowing past this number and competing for a playoff spot in the West.
Houston Rockets Over 55.5
The Rockets have the lowest number out of the consensus elite class in the West. They’re also the team with the ability to withstand injuries due to their incredible depth. The only player they can’t afford to lose for a significant period and hit the over is James Harden. Anyone else on the roster they could probably miss for a good chunk of the season and be OK. I’m riding with Houston like I did last year.
Los Angeles Lakers Under 28.5
Paging Kobe Bryant — please feel free to keep launching contested jumpers without a conscience as I collect my money. This Lakers team looks like one that could deal with some on-court chemistry issues with different agendas from many. The young players need to develop, the vets want to win now, but they’re not good enough to do so. It’s a weird mix and I don’t trust Byron Scott to be able to pull it all together.
