As much as Justise Winslow, Frank Kaminsky, and Stanley Johnson have a chance to be real impact players this season, our ongoing NBA Rookie Countdown has come to the portion of the program where we discuss our first legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate: Emmanuel Mudiay.
Again, I think Johnson has some kind of shot at the award, maybe even more so than Willie Cauley-Stein (pick #6) and Kristaps Porzingis (pick #4), but Mudiay has the perfect storm of being one of the more NBA ready prospects, playing a position where he’ll be responsible for a great portion of his teams production (or at least the glory stats), and playing for a bad team that will allow him endless opportunity to sink or swim.
All of these factors led to him receiving three out of seven votes for Rookie of the Year (tying him with Jahlil Okafor) in our Crossover Chronicles Rookie Superlatives Poll. Now let’s look at why the Denver Nuggets have decided to put the keys to their franchise in this young man’s hands.
Why He Was Drafted?
Unlike all of the rookies we’ve covered to this point, Mudiay’s a lesser known quantity because he didn’t play college basketball last season. After committing to Larry Brown at SMU, the 6-foot-5 point guard wound up playing for the Chinese Basketball Association last season, making the decision to help his family from a financial standpoint instead of waiting a year to get paid in the NBA.
Despite depriving basketball fans of a year of familiarizing ourselves with the explosive lead guard, Mudiay had the opportunity to go against professional basketball players on a nightly basis, and wound up holding his own and then some. Unfortunately, an ankle injury limited him to just 12 games, but in his small sample Mudiay finished the season with impressive averages of 18 points, 6 assists (almost 3.3 turnovers while we’re on the subject), and 6.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 48-percent from the field and 34-percent from three, in 31.5 minutes of action.
If the stats aren’t enough, let’s take a quick look at what he did in the Summer League:
https://vine.co/v/evQjvpp9hL5
As you could probably tell in that six-second clip (*sarcasm font*), Mudiay is most comfortable using his athleticism to get to the basket. And as strong of a finisher as he is, it’s his ability to find the open teammate while penetrating (among other things) that makes him such a terrific pro prospect.
https://vine.co/v/evVwDPTAv0H
And here’s a little bit of everything, mainly, explosiveness (forgive us for the white space above and below the video, the video is just too good to not share because of aesthetics):
https://vine.co/v/egg7Xate1id
Mudiay’s drawn comparisons to some of the most athletic point guards in the league in Russell Westbrook and John Wall, but most seem to think he’s more Tyreke Evans. I think what we can surmise from those comparisons is that the rookie isn’t what you think of when someone says “traditional point guard,” and that he uses his size and athleticism to make plays happen. To everything we’ve seen so far, and again, we haven’t seen a ton, this seems to be true.
How Does he Fit in with the Nuggets?
Usually I talk a bunch about the team that drafted whatever rookie I’m profiling before I get into how the player can fit in, but I’m going to start this by saying Mudiay is a freaking perfect for Denver.
I don’t know that talent was as big of an issue – which isn’t to say Denver could’ve been much better, I just think they had more talent than a 50-loss team usually does – as culture and chemistry were last season, but replacing a disgruntled Ty Lawson and a helpless Brian Shaw with Mudiay and new coach Mike Malone is a gigantic win for the Nuggets moving forward, even if it won’t show immediately.
Heading into the season, I think Mudiay ranks near, if not at the top of most important/impactful players on this team. I mean, sure, I guess Kenneth Faried is probably the best player on the team now that Lawson’s gone, but a healthy Danilo Gallinari is the difference between this team being competitive and being awful, as the team was 11-16 in games that he started. Again, that stat isn’t really moving the needle, but the team is clearly worse off without The Rooster.
Where I think Mudiay really fits in well is he’s a perfect point guard for a team that should play at a faster pace, and even though Malone isn’t really known for playing fast, the personnel on this team, at least on paper, seems like it would be better playing faster. Aside from second year player Jusuf Nurkic, who gave the team plenty to be excited about as a rookie, guys like Faried, Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Gary Harris and Randy Foye should benefit from playing faster and relatively position less. Even rookie big man Nikola Jokic appears to be a mega athlete who can both shoot from three and get up and down the court with ease unlike most bigs.
Whether or not Malone decides to push the pace, I expect to see very high usage out of Mudiay, and in turn a bunch of losses. Don’t get me wrong, even if Jameer Nelson plays huge minutes and has a career resurrection, this team is still at least two years away from competing in the Western Conference. However, allowing Mudiay to gel with a young core of Harris and Nurkic/Jokic bodes well for this team for the future.
What Should We Expect Out of Him?
Mudiay was one of the first lottery picks to impress in a big way this past summer, going for 19 points and 10 assists on 7-of-15 shooting from the field in his second Summer League game. With that said, his summer line of 12 points, 5.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds, and 5 turnovers per game on 39-percent shooting and 14-percent from three left room for criticism. Through three preseason games Mudiay’s continued his pattern of play from the Summer League, posting a line of 12.3 points, 5 assists, 2.7 rebounds and 5.7 turnovers, shooting 33-percent from the field and 33-percent from three.
Sure, I think the rookie will have a lot of games where his final statline is in the neighborhood of what we’ve seen through seven meaningless game. With that said, he’s still adjusting to a new coach, league, teammates, etc., and as a point guard this transition can take longer than for any other position. I think Mudiay has the right mental and physical approach to the game, and if Andrew Wiggins could win Rookie of the Year last year over Nerlens Noel because he “scored moar points,” I’m going to stick by my prediction that Mudiay will be this years Rookie of the Year because of the opportunities he’ll be granted on this Nuggets team.
My prediction in terms of a statline: 13.5 points, 7.2 assists, 4 rebounds, 4 turnovers, on 41-percent shooting and 29-percent from three.
