I realize, having spent most of my life following and covering sports, that what I’m about to write is very politically incorrect. Playoffs are decided in series, and series consist of anywhere from four to seven games between the same two teams to determine one of two things: 1) the better team, or 2) the team which gets the benefit of the last bad call (see “Clippers, L.A.,” versus “Spurs, San Antonio”).
That team moves on to the next round, to face another opponent for four to seven games, and blah, blah blah. You get the idea.
The problem is, I’m getting too old for this.
I have no patience for the process, so I’m cutting to the chase. The Memphis Grizzlies have zero chance to beat the Golden State Warriors four times over the next six games.
Zero.
Now, just so you don’t think I’ve lost my mind completely, let me say that if I worked for one of the league’s broadcast partners, I would give it the old college try. “Wait until Mike Conley gets back,” and “The Warriors looked sloppy in Game 1,” are all I can think of as memes to keep someone interested in this series unless they’re fans of one of the teams, and even then Grizzlies fans are not going to like how this turns out.
The Warriors were sloppy in Game 1. They were sloppy in all four games of their round-one series against New Orleans. They were sloppy in probably 60 of their 67 wins during the regular season. It doesn’t matter.
Much like the “Pelicans’ Predicament” (which, by the way would have been a great title for a Robert Ludlum novel were he still alive to write it), the Warriors do not have a weakness that the Grizzlies are talented enough to exploit. This will not change when Mike Conley eventually returns to action, even if that’s soon and he’s able to be his old self right away.
The Warriors’ struggles in the past against Memphis are well documented, but they were caused by tremendous mismatches in the low post. Golden State’s guards would launch jumpers in an effort to counteract the Grizzlies’ size advantage, but that rarely works in this league.
This year, on the other hand, the Warriors can handle Memphis inside. While Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol played well and shot well (54 percent combined), they were forced to make difficult shots. Gasol indicated after the game that the Grizzlies would be more physical in Game 2, but it seems to me that if they were going to do that, they would have done it in Game 1 when the Warriors were rusty. Randolph was having some success with jumpers, so that’s what he shot, even after Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut each picked up their fourth fouls in the third quarter.
To listen to Steve Kerr, of course, the Warriors have a lot of work to do, and from a Golden State perspective, I’m glad he thinks so. I would think less of him as a coach if the act of winning removed his concerns about his team’s 16 turnovers and the fact that it allowed an overmatched team to hang around for the fifth straight game. Yet, the truth is that it doesn’t matter.
On Sunday the W’s gave up 50-percent shooting in the first half, allowed Memphis about a half-dozen layups on back-cuts that the Grizzlies didn’t make, and had fairly pedestrian performances from Steph Curry and Klay Thompson — it just didn’t matter. Memphis couldn’t get closer than six points.
Can Memphis win a game? Maybe. There’s a four-day break between games 2 and 3 that will allow Conley to really have a chance to join the fray when the series shifts to Memphis next weekend. I would say that Game 3 is the only game they can win in this series, and it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where it happens.
Think of this: The Grizzlies made five 3-pointers per game in the regular season, and have made four per game thus far in the playoffs. The Warriors averaged 10 in the regular season, and have hit 12 per game in the playoffs. In the past, Memphis could make up that difference with its high-percentage shots inside and at the free throw line. This year, the Grizzlies are seeing Green, Bogut, Festis Ezeli, Marreese Speights, and even David Lee in there, and it’s hard work to score.
You heard it here first. DVR the games so you can watch all of the Curry highlights, because no highlight show can possibly get them all. Spend some time with your kids the next couple of weeks. I’ll watch the games for you and write clever recaps for this blog.
We’ll see you back here when the Clippers and Rockets are done pounding each other to tiny bits.
