The Hawks have been healthier than most teams, for which they must be thankful. Atlanta is one of three teams that boasts a starting lineup which has appeared in more than 50 games this season. Unlike the Clippers (Blake Griffin) and Warriors (Andrew Bogut), Atlanta hasn’t lost a starter for any extended period of time. Only the Clippers (1,119 minutes) have relied upon their starting lineup more than the Hawks (898 minutes).
Jeff Teague (68 games) and DeMarre Carroll (65 games) are the only Hawks starters who have missed more than a handful of games. Al Horford, who was out most of last season and who has dealt with injuries throughout his career, has only missed five games. Reserve Mike Scott lost 11 games to a toe injury, but he returned against Brooklyn on Saturday.
This is why news of Paul Millsap spraining his shoulder on Saturday — the two-time All-Star collided with Earl Clark at center court going after a loose ball — is garnishing attention. The injury has been deemed mild. Millsap will miss two games before being re-evaluated.
But it’s not the severity of the injury that has fans concerned, it’s the timing.
Atlanta hasn’t exactly looked sharp lately, but they’ve also had little to play for, considering they were running away with the East a long time ago. It’s been months since Atlanta first took its nest atop the conference, and with the red-hot play of Cleveland the past two months, a monotony has taken hold of the entire East playoff picture. (In fact, we may already know what the NBA Final Four looks like. How boring!)
Millsap’s injury, however minor, interrupts the popular narrative, the one that says Atlanta and Cleveland will walk to the Conference Finals. The forward has led Atlanta in points and rebounding, and his reliability is as critical to the Hawks’ operation as the team’s uniforms and sneakers — Atlanta is 4-8 without Millsap since acquiring him last season.
Atlanta’s starting lineup is outscoring opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions over 898 minutes. More specifically, when Millsap is on the court, Atlanta has a net rating of 7.7 points over 2,362 minutes.
Take Millsap out of the lineup and the team’s net rating falls below any other Hawks rotation player’s off-court figures. Atlanta scores just 102 points per 100 possessions with Millsap on the bench, down from an 108.9 offensive rating with him on the floor. That 7.9 point gap in on/off court offensive production is significant — roughly the difference between the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz offensively.
Now, let’s not overreact. Millsap will likely not miss more than a couple games, and it would be surprising if he missed much more time than that judging by the report. Still, this means Millsap will be taking right shoulder pain into the postseason. It’s at the very least something to monitor.
On a related note, Millsap will miss Atlanta’s final game against Brooklyn on Wednesday. Atlanta possesses the right to swap first round picks with Brooklyn in June, thus it’s in the franchise’s best interests for the Nets to miss the playoffs. (Could you imagine if the Nets won the lottery, and the Hawks added Karl-Anthony Towns or Justise Winslow to the fold?) Only two games separate Brooklyn (7th place) from Charlotte (11th place) heading into the final 10 days of the regular season.
With the added tension of Millsap suffering his injury in Saturday’s 32-point beat down, let’s assume the Hawks won’t be holding anything back against the Nets on Wednesday.
