When the Sacramento Kings signed Rajon Rondo this past offseason, there was an endless amount of speculation as to whether the risk was worth the reward.
Over the past four seasons (2011-2015), the divisive point guard averaged just over 47 games played per season. On top of physical limitations caused by injuries, it had seemed his skill set deteriorated a bit. This seemed most evident last season after he was traded to the Dallas Mavericks. He was clearly a horrible fit with the Mavs as an extension of both basketball and attitude.
Rondo and Mavs coach Rick Carlisle were on shaky ground for seemingly the entire duration of Rondo’s stay, which peaked when the starting point guard was permanently benched in the middle of the team’s short playoff run.
I don’t really need to give you the history on Rondo, but he was arguably a top-five (or so) point guard for the Boston Celtics from 2009 through 2011. Based on how few teams really pursued him during his free agency, it was widely believed that his best days were in the past.
As the saying goes, it only takes one, and that one team was the Kings, who gave Rondo a 1-year/$9.5M contract in an effort to add veteran talent to a roster that’s pretty much been DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and revolving or very expendable pieces for the past couple of seasons. As I write this we’re 24 games into the season, and it looks as though Rondo has returned to his old form, posting a line of 12.6 points, 11 assists (which leads the NBA), and 6.9 rebounds per game, with a league best four triple-doubles.
https://twitter.com/CTowersCBS/status/674617157334929408
That all sounds good and well, until you look deeper into the numbers. According to Basketball Reference, Rondo has a minus-3 net rating, a .495 true shooting percentage (ranking him lower than guys like Austin Rivers and Dion Waiters), and despite leading the league in assists, he also has the fifth most turnovers.
Then there’s this:
Sacramento is still 3.5 points better per 100 possessions without Rajon Rondo.
he's 14th among point guards in RPM at +1.08
— Tim (@ChuckShots) December 9, 2015
Not to be an advanced metrics “nerd” (or whatever someone who doesn’t care for stats and thinks that an eye-test is the end-all be-all would call me), but I don’t know that there’s a more damning stat than how a team operates with and without the player being discussed. I also want to be clear here: It’s awesome that Rondo is putting up the numbers he’s putting up, and that he’s been able to stay healthy for almost a full calendar year. With all of that said, this is an era of great point guards, and I don’t know that Rondo is one of them anymore.
https://twitter.com/CTowersCBS/status/674618044325347329
I think a sizable portion of Rondo’s bad stats on the season are a reflection of the Kings’ 1-7 start, and in the same respect I’d go as far as to say his recent play has helped the team play .500 basketball since. In defense of Rondo, he’s posting a +11 net rating in the month of December and has made great improvements as a three point shooter (shooting a career best 37.5 percent). Furthermore, the Kings currently have the 13th best offensive rating in the league. However, considering they were 14th last season, it’s not as though the team has had some kind of resurgence thanks to its new point guard.
If you want to say that Rondo’s back, that’s fine. Statistically speaking he’s on par with the numbers he was putting up as a perennial All-Star, and he’s still doing things like this:
https://vine.co/v/iZH7u3vbaz6
I originally set out to say that a ball-dominant point guard who isn’t a great shooter can’t be successful in this version of the NBA, until I realized Rondo’s shooting the ball relatively well, doesn’t dominate the ball any more than Russell Westbrook or Damian Lillard (who are both considered to be top five point guards or so at worst), and serves the Kings well when the ball is in his hands… even though he leads the league in touches. In the past, you’d blame Rondo for slowing down an offense; however, the Kings are currently second in the league in pace.
It’s still damning that Rondo’s posting a negative on-off rating (-3.3), but it looked far worse when backup point guard Darren Collison — currently at a -6.6 on-off — was playing better. I also think fans went into the season waiting for Rondo to be a problem for the Kings, but seeing how he’s a part of five of the Kings’ six best five-man lineups (according to Basketball Reference), tied for first on the team in Win Shares (1.6, same as Kosta Koufos, weird), and leading the team in VORP (value over replacement player), maybe there needs to be more of a middle ground, and maybe even more patience, before we discuss Rondo’s place among today’s point guards.
While I agree with the notion that stats like points and assists really can’t and shouldn’t paint the whole picture, we’re not talking about last season’s Kobe Bryant, who averaged 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.6 assists while posting a -14 net rating and shooting 37 percent. Whether or not you think Rondo’s one of the better players at his position, he’s one of the better players on his team, and his team is in the midst of a relative upswing, which is unquestionably due in part to him and the way he’s played as of late.
We can decide to use whichever stats we’d like to paint any picture of him; I just don’t think there’s currently a right answer, and I think he’s owed a little more time before we discuss just how valuable he is. For the time being, it’s good for the sport that he’s back to playing like his old self, and that his team is inching closer to playing winning basketball.
