A stunning start for Sacramento, spear-headed by the dark horse MVP candidacy of DeMarcus Cousins, had us believing the Kings were one of a dozen Western Conference teams contending for eight playoff spots. One case of viral meningitis and an ill-advised firing later — oh, and whatever happened to Denver — and the West is, more or less, a 10-team race for eight slots.
The injury riddled Oklahoma City Thunder are a .500 basketball team after the unlikeliest slew of injuries this side of Chicago; they share ninth-place with New Orleans, either the oldest-youngest or youngest-oldest team ever assembled, and possibly the worst team in league history built around an All-Star averaging 24 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per game.
Each week, the West changes — we’ve seen a flurry of trades well in advance of the February trade deadline, if only for contenders like Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix to better their chances of jostling through the NBA’s varsity league. San Antonio is closer to missing the playoffs than securing one of the top two seeds for the fifth consecutive season, while Golden State has elevated itself from a No. 6 seed to mostly unbeatable.
.@warriors are 32-6 with 7 very winnable games coming up. Not sure they're slowing down anytime soon. Oh and Steph's TS% is 68.9 last 10 gm.
— Joe Manganiello (@thatjoemags) January 19, 2015
This is why I’ve decided to pull out my figurative camera over the next couple months of this devilishly fun season to take some snapshots of the West. Let’s start at the bottom — there’s a Drake reference to be made — and work our way to the top.
T-9th Place: Oklahoma City Thunder and New Orleans Pelicans (20-20)
Since Oklahoma City’s seven-game win streak in December, the team has started-and-stopped, as the Thunder are 8-7 over their last 15 games. Much of that is because of Kevin Durant’s ankle injury, as the game’s smoothest criminal was in and out of the lineup, and the Thunder were just 3-4 without him.
Durant is averaging 27.3 points and 8.5 rebounds in January thus far, and with scorching shooting splits of .562/.472/.806, meaning the four-time scoring champ is coming back to life. This should do wonders for Oklahoma City, a team that has been terrible on the road (8-13) with just a single impressive road victory — Christmas Day against San Antonio, which was missing Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kawhi Leonard (more on him later).
Russell Westbrook has been awesome this season, and finally, in his seventh season, it seems like the conversation with him has evolved past “Is he holding Durant back?” — although literally the conversation with him is something else completely. But Westbrook alone is not enough to lift the Thunder back into the crowded Western playoff field, and the numbers suggest the Thunder are nowhere near functioning at full optimization. Durant and Westbrook have shared the floor for 312 minutes this season, per NBA.com, and have managed just 102.8 points per 100 possessions, far below their typical firestorm production.
Oklahoma City has an East Coast road trip coming against Miami, Washington, Atlanta and Cleveland this week — about as taxing a stretch against the East as it gets. The Thunder need to break even at the least over these games or they risk falling even further out of eighth place (they are currently three games out).
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are 4-4 in January, with wins against Houston and Memphis (Yay!) and losses against Charlotte, Boston and Philadelphia (Boo!). They beat Toronto on Sunday without Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday. What the heck is this team?
Well, we know one thing about New Orleans: Anthony Davis is really freaking good, and when he sits, the other four Pelicans might as well go to the pine with him. New Orleans gives up 109.2 points per 100 possessions when Davis is out of the game, per NBA.com, a rate below the anemic Knicks.
But the unfortunate truth with New Orleans is that many of their most talented combinations of players just can’t seem to make it work on both ends. Davis, Holiday and Omer Asik — the team’s best two-way players — have shared the floor for 353 minutes this season, and have posted a 102.8 offense rating and 103.6 defensive rating. In other words, this trio is losing points for the Pellies, which shouldn’t happen!
This is a team in desperate need of shooting without sacrificing any more defense — we’re looking at you, Ryan Anderson and Tyreke Evans. Quincy Pondexter is a nice upgrade over Austin Rivers in just about every way, but is Pondexter pushing them over the top and into the postseason? I have my doubts. New Orleans needs to be better when Asik is on the floor; they allow 105.3 points per possessions whenever he is manning the paint, a rate that doesn’t make sense until you consider their perimeter defense. I’m pulling for New Orleans because we all want to see Davis in the postseason sooner rather than later.
8th Place: Phoenix Suns (24-18)
(Explicatory reference to how the Suns would be the No. 5 seed in the East.) This team was 18-16 after an OT loss to Oklahoma City in December, but the Suns have won 6 out of 8, even if it has been against an ultra-light schedule, and their two losses were against the Spurs and Grizzlies. Phoenix is going to be tested over its next nine games (Lakers, Portland, Houston, Clippers, Wizards, Bulls, at Warriors, Grizzlies, at Portland), but they are mostly at home over that stretch, and if they make it out alive, Phoenix can take comfort in knowing it belongs in the playoff race for a second straight season.
There is plenty that we don’t know about this team, not the least of which is how quickly Phoenix would pull the trigger on a Goran Dragic deal if they slip any further in the standings. But this team is certainly good, one of the 12 or 13 best in the league. Their starting lineup wreaks havoc on most opponents, and when breakout star Markieff Morris is on the floor, the Suns outscore opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com. (He and his brother’s contracts look better and better by the day.)
As their 103.8 defensive rating suggests, however, this is not a very strong defensive team; essentially when Bledsoe, Markieff Morris, P.J. Tucker or Alex Len sits, the defense hemorrhages points. Opponents have offensive ratings of 110.4 and 107.9 when Markieff Morris and Tucker sit, respectively. This team has the sixth-best offense in basketball, a superb starting unit that is greatly aided by a pair of supernovas off the bench. It’s Phoenix’s defense that is likely going to keep it out of the postseason after the Thunder kick into full swing, which is likely why the team is shopping Dragic and not Bledsoe.
7th Place: San Antonio Spurs (26-16)
There is plenty to comment on about San Antonio’s struggles this season, in theory, but most of it can be summed up very simply: The Spurs run on Kawhi Leonard. The numbers and the eye test align brilliantly in San Antonio’s pair of victories since Leonard returned from his unusual hand injury. The reigning NBA Finals MVP was sinking baseline jumpers and engulfing passing lanes per the norm blowout wins against Portland and Utah.
The Spurs travel to Denver and Chicago this week before hosting the Lakers and Bucks. That looks like another four wins, and that could catapult the Spurs up in the standings. While it was okay to be a little nervous about them earlier this winter, the signs were there all along the Spurs have just been waiting to get their team back. When Tony Parker, Danny Green, Leonard, Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw share the floor this season, San Antonio has a mighty 113.2 offensive rating and an equally impressive 98.1 defensive rating — they score and get stops at the top of the league. When the Spurs have their best guys, they are freakishly protective of the ball; sub-in Manu Ginobili for Green and that lineup has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5 to 1.
6th Place: Los Angeles Clippers (27-14)
It seems like the national media has been pouring it on the Clippers of late, and on the surface, the reason is not perfectly clear — LAC has won 8 of its last 12 games, dating back to its Christmas Day victory against Golden State. The Clippers are scoring 109.7 points per 100 possessions over that run, and with elite assist and true-shooting marks. The why is because LAC is a below-average defensive team that falls into the pit whenever their starters sit. The Clippers — a team which boasts the NBA’s leading rebounder (DeAndre Jordan) and Blake Griffin — is getting whipped on the glass, night after night.
As Bill Simmons has brought up often the past couple seasons, the Clippers just cannot seem to find the correct five guys to finish games. Their starting lineup has blitzed teams, per usual; in 188 minutes over the past 12 games, LAC’s starting unit is scoring 116.6 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com, with a 60.7 true-shooting percentage. That lineup is average defensively, but take Barnes out for Jamal Crawford and all hell breaks loose. The trio of Crawford, J.J. Reddick and Griffin have a defensive rating of (gulp) 124.7 over 59 minutes the last dozen games. That would be unplayable — only these are three of the team’s five best players.
The next couple weeks are light for the Clippers (Boston, Brooklyn, at Phoenix, Denver, at Utah, at New Orleans), and the team could do well for itself to make up ground behind Dallas and Houston while the Spurs are still digging themselves out of a mini-hole. If LAC can rattle off 5 or 6 wins, we may see the Clippers back in the mix for home court in round one.
T-4th Place: Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets (28-13)
If the season ended today, these in-state rivals would square off in round one, which is probably exactly what should/will happen. Dallas has won 8 of 11, still adjusting to “Life With Rondo” (which is the best Reality TV show we’ll never get to watch). Houston is 7-4 over their last 11 games, some days looking like a great pick to win the NBA Finals, and others looking like the same unprepared squad of drivers-and-chuckers that couldn’t cut it against Portland.
Since adding Rondo, Dallas has a 98.1 offensive rating over 100 minutes with its new starting lineup, per NBA.com. That looks hideous next to their No. 1 overall offensive rating on the year (110.6), and the truth is the Mavericks are not the same team offensively with Rondo on board. They are, however, a highly capable defensive team with Rondo at the point, as that same lineup is holding opponents to 96.8 points per 100 possessions.
Rondo is not a great shooter, and the gap between he and even the likes of Jameer Nelson are enough to where starting he and Tyson Chandler significantly limits how much spacing they can create. When Rondo, Monta Ellis, Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki share the floor without Chandler, per NBA.com, they score much better (104.3 offensive rating) and with a significant boost in true-shooting percentage (49.3 to 52.8 percent). Rondo and Chandler are not unplayable, but so far it isn’t working, and head coach Rick Carlisle has been wise to isolate Nowitzki and Rondo with bench units and letting Ellis and Parsons run with Chandler for chunks of the game.
This week, Dallas goes to Memphis, Minnesota and New Orleans, and hosts Chicago, a bitter little pill of a four-game stretch when stacked next to the Clippers’/Spurs’ schedules.
3rd Place: Memphis Grizzlies (29-11)
As under-the-radar as they have ever been, the Grizzlies are 8-3 over its last 11 games despite Zach Randolph missing time over the past few weeks with a knee injury. Team Grit-N-Grind was exactly that over this recent stretch, as Memphis clawed out above-average offensive (103.7) and defensive (102.2) production — with elite rebounding, of course. Oh, and their best players stepped up as you’d expect: in 154 minutes, the trio of Tony Allen, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol held opponents to just 90.3 points per 100 possessions!
Randolph has been ferocious since returning, averaging 19.2 points on 54.7 percent shooting, 13.8 rebounds and 7.0 FTA per game. Memphis beat Portland this weekend without Conley despite the Trail Blazers hitting 13 3s in large part because of Randolph — the team was +10 on the glass and hit 50.6 percent of its shots.
Memphis parted ways with some draft picks and Pondexter in order to add Jeff Green last week, a small forward that badly addresses the team’s need of wing scoring. Courtney Lee has been a breath of fresh air on the wing beside Allen, and Vince Carter has already had some spectacular offensive moments in second units, but Green is the type of athlete that can give Memphis 20 points any given night from the small forward spot without giving up a drastic amount of defense. That Green won’t likely start or play starter’s minutes for Memphis makes the partnership even better; Green proved during his time in Boston he is a wildly inconsistent player — too uneven to start and end pivotal playoff games for a West contender. Green has looked OK in three games with his new team, all Memphis wins, averaging 16 points per game.
2nd Place: Portland Trail Blazers (30-11)
Portland has won 13 of 18 games, giving itself a half-game lead above Memphis for second-place in the West — but that lead is shrinking. The Trail Blazers have lost three straight to the likes of the Clippers, Spurs and Grizzlies; their schedule hasn’t exactly been a puff from a magical Oregon cigarette. (Their other two losses over this stretch? Houston and Atlanta.)
Second place or third place, it doesn’t matter — this team should be scaring people. We know what this team can do offensively, and any decline in production on that end can be credited to the absence of Robin Lopez. Over the past 18 games, Portland is scoring 104.5 points per 100 possessions (12th), but when Damian Lillard, Wes Matthews, Nic Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge share the court, the Trail Blazers are outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions over 219 minutes, per NBA.com.
Want to know something about that stat, though? The key is this team’s seismic improvement defensively this year; that four-man unit has posted a defensive rating of 90.0 — this without Lopez.
Portland has the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA this season at 99.4, a rate they have maintained from start to finish. Continuity has been a powerful theme this season, as many of the best teams in the league have consciously opted to keep their nucleus together an extra year in anticipation of the most wide-open season in recent memory. This was never more evident than in Golden State’s decision to hang onto Klay Thompson during the height of the Kevin Love trade rumors last summer.
Perhaps Portland, even more so than Golden State (which added Shaun Livingston and changed its starting lineup), is the poster child for how letting a nucleus grow for multiple seasons can enhance the play of each individual player. With the exception of Batum, no one in Portland’s starting lineup, on their own, is a defensive standout. But after years of playing together, Portland has become hyper-aware of each other’s strengths and weaknesses, tendencies and habits. The Trail Blazers appear to have leaped from an above-average to a great defensive team, and I don’t think anybody wants to test them come April.
1st Place: Golden State Warriors (32-6)
This team is 9-1 over its last 10 games, it’s only loss coming on the road against Oklahoma City, and without Andre Igoudala and Andrew Bogut. Over that stretch, the Warriors are scoring 116.4 points per 100 possessions, posting a defensive rating of 98.2, assisting on an astronomical 71.2 percent of their buckets without hardly ever turning the ball over, ripping a true-shooting percentage of 59.7 and playing at a pace of 101 possessions per 48 minutes, per NBA.com.
So, umm, yeah, they are OK. Their next seven games are against Denver, Houston, Sacramento, Boston, Chicago, at Utah and Phoenix. Are there any losses over that stretch? It’s possible Golden State could push its lead for first-place out to five or six games before the All-Star break.
