When a cycle repeats itself, the value of that process of repetition isn’t inherently good or bad. What counts is the substance of what’s being repeated.
In the 2015 NBA Playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs — though hardly home-free in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers — have already replayed one of their greatest hits. (We’ll explain shortly.) The Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls, on the other hand, are replaying the kinds of events they didn’t want to encounter anytime soon. The sustained prosperity of one franchise, seen in sharper relief due to the prolonged struggles of two other franchises, provides the kind of picture which makes the NBA playoffs so compelling as a larger drama.
The NBA postseason is so rich and textured from a purely theatrical standpoint, because the NBA is firmly established as the pro sports league in which it’s particularly hard to climb past entrenched powers on the way to the top. We’ve talked about this dynamic before, and we’ll talk about it again.
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It doesn’t border on the absurd — it IS absurd: With their victory over the Los Angeles Clippers last night, the San Antonio Spurs are now 24-8 in Game 5s under Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan. What’s just as absurd if not more so: The Spurs have a seven-game winning streak in Game 5s. That’s as ridiculous as some of the shots Boris Diaw hit in the fourth quarter to keep the Spurs in front.
Let’s point this out, too: Against Oklahoma City in last year’s Western Conference Finals; Dallas in last year’s contentious first-round series; the 2013 NBA Finals against Miami; and the 2013 second round against Golden State, the Spurs won Game 5s of series that were tied, 2-2. They didn’t just win Game 5s of series they led, 3-1. The Spurs are winning the pressure-packed Game 5s when defeat is very likely to lead to elimination in six games.
You can see and appreciate this basic reality: It’s not just that the Spurs are consistent winners in the NBA. They’ve stayed atop the mountain because they win the games teams have to win if they’re going to advance in the postseason. (Consider, as a brief counterpoint, the Los Angeles Clippers: They’ve now lost two straight Game 5s in 2-2 series.)
Other teams in these playoffs — specifically, two teams that find themselves immersed in alarmingly contentious situations — have not been able to write the happy story the Spurs have managed to put down on paper.
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The Atlanta Hawks just can’t escape the panic and stress attached to a seven-game first-round series. They’ll have to work awfully hard — and well — to avoid that seven-game possibility against the Brooklyn Nets, starting tonight and continuing over the next few days.
From 2000 through 2007, the Hawks did not make the playoffs. Since returning to the postseason in 2008, Atlanta has made seven postseason appearances, not including this one. In those seven playoff runs, the Hawks played a seven-game first-round series four times, constituting a majority of their trips to the postseason.
What has to be unnerving for Atlantans about the Hawks’ uneasy dance with the Nets is that being the favorite or underdog doesn’t really seem to matter with the Hawks. They were favored against Miami (2009) and Milwaukee (2010), but not against Boston (2008) or Indiana (2014). Now, as an overwhelming favorite, the magnetic pull of a Game 7 is very close to reeling in the Hawks once more. Everyone in Atlanta is hoping that, much as the 2008 Celtics and the 2014 Spurs survived first-round Game 7s to win the world title, the Hawks will loosen up in the second round and flourish. However, they have to get there first. They might very well require a Game 7 crucible to expunge the nerves that are limiting their quality of performance. (See “S” for Schroeder, Dennis.)
The Hawks are a bunch of caged birds right now. Their history and their penchant for repeated patterns are — very much unlike the Spurs — weighing them down.
Then there are the Chicago Bulls in the Tom Thibodeau era. As this team prepares for Game 6 in Milwaukee on Thursday night, the reality of repetition is also an unhappy one in the Windy City.
Following their Game 5 loss to the Bucks on Monday night, the Bulls have reaffirmed an anti-Popovician tendency under Thibs. If San Antonio is the master of winning Game 5s — especially in 2-2 series — the Bulls have proven to be alarmingly unable to win Games 4 through 6 at home under Thibodeau, especially when tied or leading in a series.
Here’s the historical record over the past four seasons, not even including a Game 5 loss at home to the Miami Heat in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals:
In 2012, the Bulls won Game 5 at home against the Philadelphia 76ers, but they trailed 3-1 in the series. Given that Chicago lost Game 6 a few days later, a Game 5 home win when down 3-1 doesn’t count for a lot.
In 2013, the Bulls won Game 4 at home against Brooklyn when leading the series, 2-1. This marks the only time over the past four seasons that the Bulls have won a home game in a Game 4, 5 or 6 when tied or leading in a series. It boggles the mind.
The record of the Bulls since that victory, made possible by a late, great Nate (Robinson) scoring spree:
In Game 6 against the Nets, Chicago lost at home.
In Game 4 of the 2013 second round against Miami, the Bulls lost at home.
In 2014, Chicago lost Game 5 at home to the Washington Wizards.
Now, in 2015, the Bulls have lost Game 5 at home to the Bucks.
Chicago is stuck in the very large shadow cast by Michael Jordan. When he donned a Bulls jersey, the United Center was an extremely tough place to play in the playoffs, but now, it’s become a very vulnerable home court for Team Thibs. This is more a commentary on the team than on the crowd, but the larger point is that the Bulls are still in search of an authoritative close-out mentality when they reach the latter stages of a series with a chance to finish off an opponent at home. Given how banged up the Bulls have always been in the Thibodeau era, you would think that winning series more quickly would serve as powerful motivation for Chicago. Yet, here are the Bulls, being extended by Milwaukee in advance of a meeting with Cleveland that isn’t even official.
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The San Antonio Spurs, Atlanta Hawks, and Chicago Bulls all find themselves in the process of repeating the past. For the defending champions, this is a happy reality. For the Hawks and Bulls — two teams representative of the jumbled, erratic and muddled Eastern Conference — repetition is both a sad and stressful occurrence that could very well overtax a roster heading into the second round, thereby derailing hopes of making the NBA Finals.
We’ll see if San Antonio can continue to write the story it wants to publish… and if the Hawks and Bulls can craft the plot twists they’ve been seeking for some time in the playoffs.
