It wasn’t supposed to happen like this for the Toronto Raptors.
When Masai Ujiri traded Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings in late 2013 for what, at the time, seemed like spare parts, it was meant to signal the beginning of a full-scale rebuilding of the franchise. Instead, the move served as the catalyst behind 97 wins in two years.
Yet, like a child conceived a decade after its youngest sibling, the Raptors of the last two seasons were a mistake that became beloved. With a combination of unlikely stars and incredibly affable role players, the Dinos of 2013-2015 became arguably the best team in the tormented history of the franchise.
It certainly wasn’t the most talented.
That reality is one that Ujiri undoubtedly struggled with as last summer rolled around. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, the high-scoring pair of All-Star guards that formed the core of this Raptors team, were — and still are — very good players. However, it seems unlikely that they can be great enough to form the foundation of a title-worthy team; they need other pillars to accompany them.
However, because of the depressed state of the Eastern Conference, the duo was able to lead Toronto to a franchise record 48 wins in 2013-’14. Then, after a first-round loss to the Brooklyn Nets which exposed many of the areas in which the Raptors were lacking — chiefly, the ability to make shots in the tightly-contested world of the playoffs — Ujiri was left in a precarious position.
Despite clearly being a cut below the NBA’s top-tier (and… the Nets), a decision to tear apart a likable, record-setting roster would have been impossible to justify. In a market so deprived of a winning team that its fans gathered en masse in the rain to rabidly cheer on a first-round series, stripping the roster last summer would have had those same fans out for blood. A year later though, even after another record-setting win total, last week’s sweep at the hands of the Wizards has the fan base ready to accept a shake-up. Two years after taking office, Ujiri finally has the green light to put his stamp on the Raptors.
He has plenty of ink to work with too. While the internet was set ablaze with calls to blow the whole thing up after Toronto laid down in a sweep-clinching 31-point loss on Sunday, the prospects for franchise’s future are promising.
As was mentioned above, Lowry and DeRozan are far from perfect players, but they are legitimately good pieces that can be major parts of the solution going forward. Lowry’s stock took a major hit as he sputtered down the stretch, hampered by a back injury and, as Dwane Casey suggested Monday, the challenge of regaining his conditioning after sitting out a number of games late in the season:
Casey on Lowry: "Once he got hurt, it set him back. I don't know if he got his conditioning back."
— Dave Feschuk (@dfeschuk) April 27, 2015
However, based on how far Lowry’s numbers went astray after the All-Star break from the standard he has set in his two seasons since reaching his star potential, it’s reasonable to suggest that his most recent form will stand as an outlier attributable to injury and attrition.
Lowry’s season was almost a complete inverse of his backcourt running mate’s campaign. DeRozan’s season began tumultuously. After a month of poor shot selection and deflated scoring totals, a torn groin tendon sidelined DeRozan for 21 games. His poor play persisted as he shook off the rust upon his return, but in the final two months of the campaign, DeRozan was a changed man:
| PER-36 Minute Stats |
PTS |
REB | AST | FTA | FG% | 3FG% | TS% |
AST% |
| To Feb 28 (32 GP) |
18.3 |
4.3 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 39.4 | 24.1 | 49.0 |
16.6 |
| Mar 1- Apr 15 (22 GP) |
22.8 |
5.0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 45.5 | 39.5 | 55.7 |
20.0 |
April’s Player of the Month is frustrating to watch at times. His insistence on launching mid-range jump shots — when he’s demonstrated an ability to attack the basket at will and even make corner threes with some consistency — is absolutely maddening. Still, DeRozan’s acumen for getting to the basket and racking up free-throw attempts is rare. His athleticism makes him a more-than-capable defender (he was actually the only Raptor who managed to defend Paul Pierce well against Washington). He is also a noted gym rat, ever expanding on his game.
This season for example, he exhibited an enhanced ability to find shooters when defenses collapsed around him. It wouldn’t be ludicrous to suggest DeRozan will spend the coming summer to work tirelessly at becoming a reliable three-point shooter ahead of his age-26 season.
Aside from their merits on the court, Lowry and DeRozan share another positive quality: team-friendly contracts. The fact that the Raptors’ two best players account for only $22.1 million against the salary cap leaves Ujiri with the space to add a franchise player (should one become available) without having to ship out one of his core players. Of course, cap space isn’t a rare commodity in the NBA today… and it surely won’t be when the cap shoots up for the 2016-’17 season. Yet, having a pair of All-Stars locked up at below-market-value deals can only be a plus as Ujiri looks to re-tool the Raptors.
»»» «««
With an unoccupied salary cap come roster holes. DeRozan’s and Lowry’s combined salaries make up nearly half of the total money the Raptors have committed for next season — a result of more than a third of the roster and roughly $29 million coming off of the books this summer (Lou Williams, Amir Johnson, Landry Fields, Tyler Hansbrough, Chuck Hayes and Greg Stiemsma).
Most notable among those with expiring contracts are Johnson and Williams.
Amir Johnson has been a fan favourite in Toronto since his arrival from Detroit six seasons ago while remaining one of the more underappreciated complementary players in the league. He’s served as the proverbial garbage man for the Raptors’ defense, seemingly always there to provide help when a teammate makes a defensive miscue. (He worked double-time this season with the Williams-Lowry-Greivis Vasquez-Terrence Ross quartet, which provided laughable perimeter defense from start to finish.)
However, though Johnson is only 27, that number is a misrepresentation of the miles he’s logged. The last player to join the NBA straight from high school back in 2005, Johnson just wrapped up his 10th season in the league… and his body is starting to show it. With a set of ankles so wonky they look as though they may shatter any time he collects a rebound, Johnson is simply unable to produce with the consistency he used to display. Six double-doubles were all Johnson could manage this season, down from 13 last year and 15 in 2012-’13. He’s been an admirably dedicated soldier, but for the Raptors to re-up Johnson for anything but a significant discount on his $7 million 2014-’15 salary wouldn’t be a great use of resources. At a position where the rebound-bereft and defensively flawed Raptors could stand to upgrade, a melancholy separation from Johnson seems like a likely conclusion.
Cutting ties with Williams shouldn’t be as difficult a decision for Ujiri. While his monumental feat of winning Sixth Man of the Year just two years after a major knee injury has been rightfully applauded, his style of play (isolations, pull-up threes, an incredibly high foul rate and suspect on-ball defense) is not an optimal fit with the rest of the pieces on the Raptors. Casey even pointed out in his season-ending press conference that the Raptors’ fast-paced offense, which heavily relied on the shot-creation abilities of Williams, DeRozan and Lowry, probably had a significant impact on the team’s defensive woes.
Casey: What was missing? Our defense … we shot quicker which compromised our defense, we never struck that balance'
— Michael Grange (@michaelgrange) April 27, 2015
https://twitter.com/IamHarshDave/status/592738078214725632
If selfishness was in fact the downfall of Toronto’s two-way game, a “Lou-botomy” seems to make a lot of sense. First and most obviously, he’s heading to free agency; the Raptors have no obligation to bring him back. With the similarities between his game and that of the team’s two best players, Williams is the easy choice as the odd man out in Toronto’s triumvirate of ball-dominant guards. His perch atop the Sixth Man throne will almost surely drive his market price up as well — which should make it easier for the Raptors to resist bringing back the free-shooting guard.
Johnson’s and Williams’ contributions to the Raptors have been significant, but in the interest of preserving cap flexibility, and widening the potential avenues for improvement, Ujiri should elect to move on from both.
»»» «««
The answers will be less obvious for Ujiri when addressing the questions up and down the remainder of the roster.
Patrick Patterson is a versatile and smart defender who can make threes with regularity. Considering that he just completed year one of a new — and reasonable — three-year deal with the Raptors for roughly $6 million per year, it’s safe to assume he will be back; whether that’s in a starting or reserve capacity remains to be seen.
Along with Patterson in the category of safe bets to return is Jonas Valanciunas. Despite an ugly playoff series against Washington’s big men (he wasn’t alone in that regard), and an apparent inability to gain the coaching staff’s trust, Valanciunas markedly improved this season. He became a prolific post scorer when given the opportunity, and his rim protection was quietly very respectable. According to Nylon Calculus’ rim protection statistics, the Lithuanian ranked 15th in the NBA in “Opponents At-the-Rim Field Goal Percentage” (46.5 percent) and 10th in “Points Saved Per 36 Minutes” (1.51).
Yet, even while making those strides, Valanciunas is still dogged by questions regarding his defensive mobility and decision-making when attacked by double-teams. Ujiri will soon have to decide if he wants to build around a player whose potential in a pace-and-space obsessed league may be limited by his physical constraints; he is eligible to begin contract-extension negotiations in July.
The same goes for Ross. However, the predicament with Ross isn’t whether or not he is a player to build around. He’s proven through three seasons of exasperating volatility that he is likely on the path to becoming a tantalizingly skilled but inconsistent role player. If Ross’ skill set can be replaced by a cheaper and more reliable veteran, Ujiri may be apprehensive about committing to Ross in the long-term.
That brings us to Vasquez and James Johnson. The playoff experiences for these two veterans could not have contrasted more. Vasquez had scorn heaped upon him by the fan base for his inability to stay in front of John Wall. Is Vasquez a good defender? Not even a little bit. But, the criticism is somewhat unfair given that most of the devastation Wall inflicted on the Raptors’ backup guard came while Kyle Lowry was perched on the bench after accruing a slew of silly fouls in the series. Regardless, his fit in the backcourt has been called into question, given Toronto’s embarrassingly poor perimeter defense this season. His return is anything but a guarantee.
On the other end of the spectrum was James Johnson, whose sporadic playing time was the biggest bone of contention between the fans and coach Casey all season. The vitriol manifested itself during Game 2 against Washington, when Johnson was greeted by a massive standing ovation when Casey inserted him into the game in the second quarter. He followed that up by going -14 in the following seven minutes, his last on-court stint until garbage time in Game 4.
Johnson is undeniably talented. On offense he is a tremendous post scorer, while his on-ball skills stand out on the other end of the floor. However, his poor shooting makes him a tricky fit in many of Toronto’s line-ups. Whether or not he can curry favour with Casey next season will largely depend on which pieces Ujiri can find to fill out the roster.
»»» «««
Finally, we’ve reached the overarching question that will likely dictate how each player mentioned above is ultimately handled by Ujiri: whether or not Casey will be the coach of the Raptors moving forward.
There’s a case to be made for both sides of the “should-he-stay-or-should-he-go” argument with Casey. On the “stay” side of things, the team has improved its win total in each of his four seasons in town. Along the way, the man lauded for his motivational skills has facilitated the emergence of two of the most unexpected All-Stars the league has seen in recent years. Before the defensive collapse of this season, he managed to lift 2010-11’s worst defense (110.0 Defensive Rating) all the way up to 10th best in the league during 2013-14’s captivating run.
Going against Casey: that aforementioned tumble down the defensive ranks (104.8 DRtg — 23rd); an iso-heavy, easy-to-scout offense; a stubbornness to incorporate Valanciunas into the offense; and a bewildering sweep at the hands of the even more maligned Randy Wittman, who out-coached Casey at every turn. The prospect of moving on from Casey draws parallels to the decision Ujiri is facing with Amir Johnson. Casey served valiantly, helping to rescue the destitute Raptors franchise from the gutter and lead it to respectability. Perhaps a new coach is needed, however, to better utilize the skill sets of the players on the roster.
Ujiri will have an immense amount of evaluations to carry out in the months to come. However, he is blessed with a pair of star-level players, an abundance of cap flexibility and, who could forget, an extra first-round draft pick in 2016 — the benefits of the Andrea Bargnani trade continue to be reaped. The cupboard is anything but bare, and if the ingredients are combined correctly, Ujiri has a chance to remove the bad taste lingering in the fan base’s mouth after such a disheartening conclusion to the season.
More than that, the Raptors’ boss has the opportunity to bring Toronto past the point of respectability, and into the realm of perenial league-wide relevance.
