In the opening half of the NBA season, we got a glimpse of something rare in a league typically ruled by transcendent stars and teams. As preseason favorites such as the Spurs, Thunder, Clippers, Bulls, and Cavaliers battled early issues with injuries and unbalanced chemistry, a handful of unusual suspects brought a scarcely-observed air of unpredictability to the 2014-’15 campaign.
In addition to the historically incredible (and largely unexpected) play of the Warriors and Hawks, squads such as the Grizzlies, Wizards, and even the Raptors (they were 24-7 at one point, remember that?) were playing as if they had legitimate claims to the NBA throne. The common thinking throughout the season was that the pool of title contenders seemed uncharacteristically large and wide-open.
It was a mirage.
As is apt to happen over an 82-game season, predictability eventually won out, and like Dion Waiters on a solo fast-break, the possibilities and excitement created by the first few months eventually fizzled. The expected outcome prevailed. As the playoffs opened, it seemed like a good bet that the eventual champion would be one of San Antonio, Golden State, Cleveland or Atlanta; the once ten-strong group of “contenders” had been whittled down to a far more commonly seen upper class of four.
An almost unprecedented phenomenon has unfolded in these playoffs, though. One of the big four challengers fell in round one, and none of the remaining three are assured of even advancing to the conference finals. Unlike the false sense of parity we endured early on, the events of the first one-and-a-half rounds have completely re-opened the title chase. With two series knotted up and two others headed for sixth games, nearly every remaining team could realistically win the championship at this point if a few breaks go their way.
Obviously there are varying degrees of likelihood for each of the remaining teams to to win it all. The Clippers, already with a foot on the neck of the Rockets, stand a better chance than the Wizards, all square with the Hawks with their all-world point guard missing time. Yet, unlike the Nets, Blazers, Wiz and the imploding Pacers of last year’s second round, there is no certainty as to how most of this year’s surviving teams’ seasons will end.
Each team left has strengths and weaknesses that can either help or hinder their chances of claiming the Larry O’Brien Trophy – and the matchups they come across will have a major say in the amount of success they ultimately find. Here is what is working both for an against each still-kicking team’s hopes for a title – arranged in order from the least likely to most likely to achieve mid-June jubilation.
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8. Houston
The Rockets appeared to be dead in the water after getting blown out in three of four contests with the Clippers, but a glimmer of hope still remains for James Harden, Dwight Howard and their band of misfit pals. After Tuesday’s convincing victory, a win in Los Angeles in Game 6 will bring the Rockets back home for the deciding game with boatloads of confidence. The only problem is: the way the once-stout Rockets’ defense has performed in these playoffs (108.6 DEF Rtg compared to 100.5 in the regular season), it’s hard to envision them shutting down those deadly Clipper pick-and-rolls with enough consistency to win three straight. Not to mention, Houston won’t always be able to rely on DeAndre Jordan playing just 24 minutes due to foul trouble.
7. Washington
Playoff Randy Wittman has inexplicably become something to behold. In addition to his deployment of Otto Porter and Paul Pierce together at the three and four spots, he’s drawn up some incredible plays out of timeouts and completely revamped Washington’s offense in eight playoff games, cutting down on mid-range jump shots and re-committing his squad to the three-ball.
| Per-Game Stats |
3PA / 3P % |
Mid-Range Att. / % |
Offensive Rating |
| Regular Season |
16.8 / 36.0% |
28.9 / 39.7% |
101.8 |
| Playoffs |
24.8 / 43.4% |
21.1 / 36.0% |
107.7 |
The changes have yielded the most efficient team in the playoffs, according to Number Fire.
Paul Pierce launching daggers with Kyle Korver-esque accuracy (54.5% from three) is helping matters as well. If the Wizards can somehow squeak out a series win over the Hawks without John Wall, the prospect of playing an injury-riddled Cavs team or the Bulls – a team the Wizards bullied in last year’s playoffs – doesn’t seem so daunting. Wall’s return at some point, however, is an absolute must if the Wizards have any hope of pulling off one of the most unexpected title runs in history.
6. Chicago
Down a game heading into a must-win sixth contest with the Cavs, Chicago is teetering on the brink of another playoff disappointment under Tom Thibodeau. Like Chicago’s other recent playoff shortcomings, injuries to key guys could be a big contributor. Joakim Noah’s hamstring issues have further slowed an already-hobbled man, and Pau Gasol’s absence leaves the Bulls front line looking rather depleted.
Working in favor of the trailing Bulls’ quest for a seventh title in franchise history? Their series with the Cavs is evenly matched. Plus, Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler are playing at a tantalizingly high level in these playoffs; they’ve probably been the best non-Chris Paul and Blake Griffin duo of teammates. Even with the health concerns and Thibodeau’s reluctance to give Nikola Mirotic extended minutes, Chicago may boast the deepest rotation remaining in the East. At this point, healthy bodies may be all that’s needed to squeak into the Finals.
5. Atlanta
Atlanta benefits from the same “they play in the Eastern Conference where everyone is hurt” factor that everyone else in the conference enjoys, but with one distinct advantage: the Hawks are probably the healthiest bunch remaining in the bracket. Sure, Al Horford and Paul Millsap are not quite 100 percent, and both players have seen their shooting percentages slip from their regular season marks. However, the ailments the Hawks’ two big men are enduring pale in severity compared to the injuries dogging the likes of Wall, Gasol, Kevin Love, and Kyrie “No really, I’m a Decoy” Irving elsewhere in the league’s inferior conference.
Mike Budenholzer’s group hasn’t quite played to its 60-win form to this point in the playoffs. Thankfully for Sir Foster and the rest of the Hawks’ faithful, though, they might not have to in order to prevail over a battered field of contestants out East. If Jeff Teague’s Game 4 performance represents a corner turned for his playoff journey, that magnificent regular season level of play isn’t unattainable.
4. Cleveland
By now you’re probably recognizing a trend – we’ve yet to come across the titans of the West. Cleveland, thanks to the presence of LeBron James and a defensively sound, glass-crashing frontcourt duo of Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, probably still holds a slight edge as the favourite to come out of the terribly wounded Eastern Conference; it’s hard to imagine any Western Conference team being an underdog in the Finals. Now that the Cavs hold a 3-2 series lead over Chicago, closing out the series in Game 6 on the road will be crucial in order to give Irving, Iman Shumpert, and the King himself an extra day or two to rest ahead of the conference finals.
Almost as pressing as the injuries that have piled up in the second round is the downturn in efficiency the Cavs have experienced without Kevin Love. Cleveland’s offensive rating has tumbled nearly seven points per 100 possessions in round two (albeit against a decidedly better defense than the Celtics’), and James’ had watched his true shooting percentage drop from 53 percent against Boston to just 44.3 against Chicago prior to his über-efficient performance in Game 5. All that said, LeBron proved with Sunday’s buzzer-beater that he is about as clutch as can be, so he gives the Cavs the edge over the Hawks.
3. Memphis
Prior to getting absolutely stomped on their home court in Game 4, Memphis would have probably ranked as the second-most likely team to claim the title. That 101-84 loss stung big time, and having to win two of the next three games – and a minimum of one at Oracle Arena – will be a gargantuan task. Dave Joerger’s bunch has proven it can hassle and frustrate Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, though. Furthermore, Draymond Green’s offensive struggles (35.7 percent shooting) and the excellent play of Zach Randolph (a 19-9-3 average; 53.6 FG%) indicates a matchup the Grizzlies can exploit on both ends of the floor.
It doesn’t look overly promising for Memphis right now, but the potential for an upset is still present in this series.
2. Golden State
Controversial opinion: Steph Curry is full-on ridiculous. His performance in Game 4 against the Grizzlies was simply brilliant. His line of 33 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists on 4-9 shooting from deep and 11-22 overall simultaneously revived a Warriors team facing its first adverse circumstances all year, and served as a virtual middle-finger to the Phil Jackson-led sect of Dubs doubters.
If we’re going to see Golden State replicate Monday’s domination from here on out, the entire premise of this column might quickly be blown to smithereens. But let’s practice patience and see what the Grizzlies have in store as a response to Curry’s onslaught in the coming games before granting the Bay Area its first title since the Rick Barry days.
1. Los Angeles Clippers
Given the ridicule Doc Rivers has faced regarding his nepotistic approach to bench-building and the Clippers’ utter lack of depth, it’s amazing that his squad overtook the Warriors as the ESPN’s BPI Projections‘ title favorite earlier this week. Chris Paul, gimpy hamstring and all, has turned in the standout performance of these playoffs; his biggest challenger might be running mate Blake Griffin.
Also impressive has been the play of the much-maligned reserves – a group that has done a lot to hush those critiquing the Clippers’ depth. Austin Rivers has been a NET positive (+2.7) in support of the ailing Paul, and contrary to popular belief, might actually be worthy of a spot on an NBA roster. Jamal Crawford has done his high-volume-streaky-bench-sparkplug thing, and even Spencer Hawes has at long last provided a contribution. The bench has largely kept the Clippers afloat – which is all that is needed when the starters are so excellent.
Doc’s use of a 7- or 8-man rotation might end up haunting him as the Clippers progress – Paul, Griffin, J.J. Redick and Jordan are all averaging 34-plus minutes through two rounds. It was apparent Tuesday in Game 5 against Houston that having Jordan sit for half of the game puts an unattainable amount of responsibility on the bench to maintain a continually high level of play, especially in terms of low-post defense and rim protection. A grinding, physical series against Memphis or a fast-paced series with Warriors will likely put a great deal of stress on the starters. Like Cleveland, closing out their opponent in Game 6 will provide the Clippers’ studs with an invaluable extra day or two of rest, and keep L.A.’s title aspirations well within reach.
