The Memphis Grizzlies have come a long way. The first fifteen seasons of their existence would have been best described as an utter joke. Horrendous ownership forced a move to Tennessee after only six tumultuous, Bryant Reeves-filled years in Vancouver — a stint that yielded just 124 total wins for the organization. Once in Memphis, it was still a few more years before the team made its first playoff appearance in 2003-’04.
All told, the Grizzlies’ first decade-and-a-half in the league produced only three playoff-worthy squads, and as many 50-win seasons as relocations. An overall winning percentage of 0.333 was all the franchise could muster.
Things are different on Beale Street now. Built around a throwback style of play, the Grizzlies have participated in five straight postseasons and have made some noise in the process. Their most recent run, of course, ended Friday night at the hands of the Golden State Warriors.
It was the expected result. The Warriors were and are a historically great team, and their combination of a fast-paced, prolific offense and league-best defense was always going to be hard for the slow-paced, hulking Grizzlies to handle. There is no shame in losing to Steve Kerr’s bunch.
There are, however, questions regarding the future of the team’s core. The most notable item, of course: how franchise center Marc Gasol’s impending free-agency will shake down; there is no shortage of options for how Gasol and his agent can go about signing his next deal.
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As Chris Herrington of The Commercial Appeal detailed before the 2014-’15 season, if Gasol is to remain with the Grizzlies, there are two ways for him to do so. He can either sign an extension on his existing deal or wait until his contract expires on June 30 and re-sign with the Grizzlies once the free-agency period begins.
The first option would lock Gasol in for three years, and pay him right around $17 million next season – an amount that would likely increase by 7.5 percent per year over the final two seasons of the contract. Comparatively, if Gasol allows his deal to expire before signing a new contract, he will be eligible as a seven-year veteran to make up to 30 percent of next year’s salary cap with the same $7.5 million annual raises over the course of five years.
In short, he can guarantee himself a much larger sum of money over a longer term if he waits for his contract to expire before signing a new contract with Memphis. For a 30-year-old player looking for what is probably his last huge contract, locking into maximum money until after his age-35 season would seem like a no-brainer. That is, of course, if the salary cap was not set to go absolutely bonkers in the coming years. If Gasol chooses to go the extension route, he could re-enter the free-agent market at 33, when the salary cap is projected to be roughly $100 million. At that point, Gasol may be able to cash in with an even more lucrative deal (if injuries and attrition don’t kill his earning potential). There also remains the possibility that Gasol will opt to sign a one-year deal in order to enter free-agency next summer, when an $89 million cap number will let him chase a similarly high-priced max contract.
Regardless of the way Gasol goes about about securing his next contract, it’s going to cost the Grizzlies a lot to retain him. General manager Chris Wallace doesn’t really have a choice either. Gasol is one of the best players in franchise history who is coming off a campaign in which he posted career bests in scoring and PER, and was in the MVP discussion in the season’s early stages. Moreover, allowing Gasol to walk without trying to bring him back to Memphis would be an impossible decision to justify to a fan base after the team’s first sustained run of success.
Having the 7-foot-1 center back in the fold will bode well for a continuation of the Grizzlies’ recent winning ways. It would keep together the core components of a team that for much of the season looked like a legitimate title threat.
Therein lies the dilemma facing the Grizzlies as they move forward. If they can bring back Gasol, his mammoth cap figure will bring Memphis close to the salary cap with a whopping 13 players already locked in for next season. With an incoming draft pick or two certain to take up the remaining roster spots, the 2015-’16 team will look mighty similar to this year’s group, minus pending free agents Kosta Koufos and Nick Calathes, should they take their talents elsewhere. Will that roster be good enough to ascend from being a “threat” to a legitimate contender? It very well could; the Grizzlies boast plenty of playoff experience, benefit from a very deep bench, and were a trendy title pick throughout this season. At the same time, being nestled so closely to the salary cap may limit Wallace’s ability to bring in some much-needed three-point shooting to complement his towering big men and All-Star caliber point guard.
There is another predicament that may befall the Grizzlies should they keep Gasol in town, one that offers an ominous outlook for the long-term success of the team. While the Grizz with Gasol in tow boast a talented core, it’s also an aging one. At the start of next season, four members of the starting line-up will be over 30 (Randolph – 34, Tony Allen – 33, Gasol – 30, Courtney Lee – 30), with the fifth member, Mike Conley, entering his age-28 campaign. Surrounding that veteran core: Vince Carter (38), Beno Udrih (33), Jeff Green (29), and very little in the way of young prospects with potential to be bona fide contributors to a contending team. Jordan Adams may in fact be the only such player currently on the roster.
It’s unlikely youthful reinforcements will be on their way via the draft any time soon. Memphis will be selecting in the mid-twenties in the upcoming draft and owes two heavily protected first-rounders in the coming years. Based on the nature of those protections, it’s most likely that Memphis will owe its first picks in 2017 and 2018; while those selections are protected if the Grizzlies should land a high lottery pick, it would take an unlikely, monumental collapse for a team with Gasol, Randolph and Conley to fall into that range.
Essentially, the probability is low that Memphis will find itself with a chance to draft a can’t-miss talent in the next four or five years. For an aging and physical team primed to battle in the grueling Western Conference in the coming seasons, that could be a major problem. Factor in the harsh truth that even though the salary cap will soon skyrocket, Memphis simply is not a top-of-the-list destination for free agents, and the avenues for this team to improve Gasol’s supporting cast begin to dwindle.
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This isn’t to say that Memphis should allow Gasol to pursue a contract with one of the many suitors that will surely be interested. Foregoing the ability to continue an impressive run of sustained success would be foolish. With some luck, there still remains a hope that this rendition of the Grizzlies can be a title-worthy team, with the window remaining open for at least two more years while Randolph remains under contract. For that reason, Wallace should do absolutely everything in his power to keep Gasol and focus on winning a title with the players he has on hand.
However, Wallace — and all of Grizzlies Nation — need to be prepared for the reality that will accompany a long-term commitment to an aging centerpiece. After another two or three years of contention, the “Grit and Grind” Grizzlies will be a thing of the past. Eventually, Memphis’ dearth of young talent and its longstanding inability to attract marquee free agents will inevitably force a full-scale rebuild when Gasol and company are no longer spry enough to contend.
If re-signing their franchise player results in a title in the next couple years, though, it will be totally worth it for the Grizzlies.
