Tuesday night’s NBA Draft Lottery could go a long way in terms of bringing normalcy back to the league. After a season that saw some of the most storied and revered franchises in the Association relegated to “why the hell is this team on a national broadcast?” status, 14 ping-pong balls could work to accelerate the re-tooling efforts of the teams like the Lakers, Knicks, Sixers and Heat.
The prize for the team with luck on its side: the right to draft one of two supremely talented big men, Kentucky’s Karl-Anthony Towns or Duke’s Jahlil Okafor.
Of course, the lottery ranks aren’t only populated by historically successful teams suffering recent downswings. Alongside those formerly titanic squads are some up-and-coming teams with existing in-house talent; many of them could be one final piece away from attaining newfound legitimacy.
So, what needs to happen for these teams to win? At first glance, the process of the lottery seems like the most baffling and confusing use of ping-pong balls since the 2014 Commonwealth Games:
In actuality, the method is simple. Fourteen balls are drawn, four at a time – making 1,000 potential four-ball combinations. Each team in the lottery is assigned a certain number of combinations based on the regular season standings:
| Team |
Combination / Odds |
| 1 – Minnesota |
250 (25%) |
| 2 – New York |
199 (19.9%) |
| 3 – Philadelphia |
156 (15.6%) |
| 4 – LA Lakers |
119 (11.9%) |
| 5 – Orlando |
88 (8.8%) |
| 6 – Sacramento |
63 (6.3%) |
| 7 – Denver |
43 (4.3%) |
| 8 – Detroit |
28 (2.8%) |
| 9 – Charlotte |
17 (1.7%) |
| 10 – Miami |
11 (1.1%) |
| 11 – Indiana |
8 (0.8%) |
| 12 – Utah |
7 (0.7%) |
| 13 – Phoenix |
6 (0.6%) |
| 14 – Oklahoma City |
5 (0.5%) |
Three four-ball combinations will be picked, with the first combination drawn awarding the first pick to the corresponding team, followed by the second and third picks. After the top-three picks are set, the fourth through 14th picks will granted based on reverse order of finish in the regular-season standings.
Now that the procedural stuff is out of the way, the real question can be addressed: What would each lottery team do with the first selection? Teams’ needs vary, and Towns and Okafor — regardless of who may be the “better” prospect — will be better fits with some franchises than others.
Conventional wisdom when comparing the two one-and-done players is that Okafor is more of a refined offensive player than Towns at this point in their development. Okafor showcased excellent footwork and an incredible ability to score in the post for the national champion Duke Blue Devils this past season, sporting a gaudy 66.4 field-goal shooting percentage. In Towns’ favor: He’s regarded as a far better defender, and despite playing alongside fellow monster Willie Cauley-Stein for much of the season, he still posted a better Total Rebound Percentage than Okafor (18.5% – 16.6%), who was the only true big man for a lot of his court time at Duke.
If Towns can expand even further on the excellent post game he showed at times during the season, he has a chance to be a two-way stud with a higher overall ceiling than Okafor.
However, when it comes to how this year’s draft will play out, Towns isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be the top guy on every team’s board, and the order in which the two youngsters will come off the board will certainly be dictated by which team prevails in Tuesday’s lottery.
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Minnesota has the best odds of winning, and the “Towns or Okafor” debate will be particularly interesting if the Wolves’ superior odds pan out. With Andrew Wiggins – an athletic and gifted on-ball defender – already on the roster, Flip Saunders may feel as though another offensive piece is more of a priority than a beastly defender inside. That thinking would probably sway him towards taking Okafor. At the same time, rolling out a fantastic rim-protector as the last line of defense behind Wiggins would give the Wolves the foundation of a ferocious defense. Minnesota was the 25th-ranked offensive squad and was dead last in defensive efficiency this season, so no matter their pick if they nab the top spot, the Timberwolves will be able to address areas of concern.
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It’s not as much of a toss-up for the Knicks should one of their combinations appear on the board first. Towns is a New Jersey native, and his initial value won’t be predicated on receiving a high volume of touches on offense. With Carmelo Anthony on the roster, Towns appears to be a better fit than the offense-minded Okafor would be at MSG.
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The Sixers, sitting with the third best odds, might be the most fascinating potential lottery winner. With Joel Embiid set to make his NBA debut next season and Nerlens Noel coming off a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting, Philadelphia would seem like the last team in need of a big man like Towns or Okafor; perhaps the Sixers could surprise by taking a guard like D’Angelo Russell first, or trading down in the lottery. However, Sixer GM Sam Hinkie’s entire philosophy over the course of his monumental rebuilding project has been to hunt a superstar above all else. If he is granted the first overall selection, and thinks Towns or Okafor have the best chance out of anyone in the draft class to reach superstar status, it would violate his team-building strategy to pass on one of them. Maybe we could see the Sixers take Towns or Okafor and ship off Noel or Embiid?
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Kobe Bryant has been the in the twilight of his career for a few years now. He won’t be around to launch 25 shots on a nightly basis much longer, and the Lakers might be in need of someone to alleviate scoring pressure from their aging star. With rumors running wild suggesting that Rajon Rondo is Staples Center-bound, an offensive spark surely won’t be coming from the point guard spot next season. Drafting Okafor might make sense should the balls fall Los Angeles’ way.
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If you’re looking for the team that will take the biggest leap next season with the infusion of a first-overall player, that might be the Orlando Magic. Already armed with the electrifying young backcourt of Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo, a player like Towns could be the perfect final piece for a team trending upwards. Slotting the Kentucky product next to the offensively-gifted-but-defensively-limited Nikola Vucevic could re-create a scenario like the one we saw in Oklahoma City this season: Sam Presti brought in Enes Kanter to play with Serge Ibaka at the trade deadline, giving Kanter the ability to succeed offensively without being exposed at the other end of the floor. Adding Towns’ offensive prowess to the Magic front line is a terrifying proposition.
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Similarly, should Sacramento be an unlikely lottery winner, selecting Towns to roam the paint at Sleep Train Arena would provide a boon to the league’s 27th-ranked defense and free up the multi-talented DeMarcus Cousins to run the offense from the elbow with more regularity.
After Sacramento, no team has a better than five percent chance to win on Tuesday night, but there are some interesting team-player marriages that could arise if one of the low-lottery teams pulls an upset. Okafor has received some comparisons to Al Jefferson, so it’s unlikely that he would be on Charlotte’s radar, but Towns would give the Hornets a frontcourt imposing enough to make fans of the team forget they still have Lance Stephenson.
Miami is primed for a return to prominence next season, with Josh McRoberts and Chris Bosh projected to be ready to go when the 2015-’16 campaign tips off. With Wade and Bosh aging, Okafor would be an excellent choice to become a low-post focal point for Erik Spoelstra. With Bosh acting as the team’s defensive anchor, Okafor’s deficiencies could be hidden, and Hassan Whiteside could be deployed as a fantastic defensive center off of the bench. Moreover, the potential of Goran Dragic-Okafor pick-and-rolls should be enough to make Pat Riley salivate.
No matter how the draft lottery shakes down, Towns or Okafor should be able to supply an instant upgrade to their new team. If you were a fan of the wonky 2014-’15 season, in which many of the traditional powers endured down years, you’re crossing your fingers and hoping that a small market team with a burgeoning cast of talented young players – like Minnesota or Orlando – draws the right combo of balls Tuesday night.
On the other hand, for those who think the NBA is better when the big market squads match the hype that follows them with their level of play, this draft lottery could be exactly what you’re looking for. A win by the Knicks, Lakers, Sixers or the longshot Heat would be step one in restoring order to a topsy-turvy league.
