Attempting to analyze late-first round draft picks is always a tricky proposition. In the weeks leading up to the big day, the conversation surrounding most prospects revolves around their strengths and how they will translate to the professional game. Any mention of a prospect’s weaknesses typically comes with the “if they can figure [insert deficiency here] out” qualifier that maintains hope for that player’s future. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – the draft is about optimism, and a lot of that would be lost if we nitpicked every foible present in the skill sets of the incoming class of players.
That said, it’s important to remember that after the Draft Lottery (also a place wrought with uncertainty), pinpointing players who will thrive in the NBA is a crap shoot. Just because a guy boasts first-round talent doesn’t mean he’ll turn into a relevant long-term contributor. For every Eric Bledsoe (18th, 2010) there’s a Craig Brackins (taken three picks later in 2010), and talent alone isn’t enough to determine if a player will carve out a role in an NBA rotation. Development staff, opportunity, system fit, mental make-up – all are factors that play into the long-term viability of a late first-rounder.
Making snap judgments on players before they even buy their plane tickets to Vegas Summer League isn’t only unfair – it’s foolish. There’s no telling if Terry Rozier was actually a reach by the Celtics at 16 or if the Spurs dug up the next European star by taking Nikola Milutinov 26th (although it’s the Spurs, so they probably did). But in the cases of some players, we can draw direct lines to how they will fit in with their new teams, and from there, let our minds run wild with enthusiasm knowing that the opportunity and system fit boxes might already be checked off on the player advancement to-do list.
With the reality that we really know absolutely nothing in mind, here are some of the late first-round picks that should have fans feeling cautiously optimistic that their team added a legitimate rotation piece on draft night.
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Kelly Oubre Jr. – Washington Wizards (Traded from Atlanta), 15th
Oubre was considered a top-10 pick on most early mock drafts before joining Kansas for his lone college season. After posting underwhelming totals of 9.3 points, 5.0 rebounds and 0.8 assists in just 21 minutes per game under Bill Self, his stock slipped enough for the Wizards to pick him up via a trade with the Hawks. In time, the bedazzled-shoe-sporting Oubre should fit incredibly well.
Not only will Oubre add to the growing line-up of magnificent athletes in Washington’s perimeter corps, he should meld right into the small-ball lineups that Randy Wittman mercifully began to deploy in the playoffs. Otto Porter, after a lost rookie season, began to play to his high-lottery pick ability near the end of his second season and into the Wizards’ playoff run this spring. Used largely at the three to complement Paul Pierce playing as a stretch four, Porter averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds against the Raptors and Hawks in the playoffs and exhibited an improvement in his three-point shooting. At 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan, Porter has more than enough size to slide into the power forward spot in floor-spreading line-ups if Paul Pierce splits town this summer, opening up a long-term opening at the three for Oubre to eventually step into.
The playoffs showed how devastating Wall can be when given the opportunity to penetrate into a lane that isn’t clogged by Nene and Marcin Gortat at the same time, and even if Oubre takes time to develop into a starting-caliber wing, he should at the very least have a chance at a plethora of catch-and-shoot threes when he shares the floor with Wall.
With a core of Wall (24), Porter (22), Oubre (19) and Bradley Beal (21), the long term outlook for this team is bright, even if the Kevin Durant pipe dream never comes to fruition.
Delon Wright – Toronto Raptors, 20th
Raptors GM Masai Ujiri made one of the only noteworthy trades on Draft night, sending back-up point guard Greivis Vasquez to Milwaukee for a lottery-protected 2017 first-rounder and the 46th-overall pick (Norman Powell). Ujiri wasted no time filling in the hole left by Vasquez, selecting Wright 20th overall.
Toronto was annihilated by slashing point guards last season, thanks in large part to the cream-puff perimeter defense played by the likes of Vasquez and Lou Williams. Wright, 23, is further along in his development than most of the players taken before him in the draft and will have a shot to earn a regular role on the Raptors from day one. With his physical dimensions (6’5, 6’8 wingspan), Wright should be able to provide passable point defense right away – something the Raptors so desperately needed last season. On top of that, as a facilitator and not a primary shot-taker on the second unit, Wright could help to eradicate the stagnation the team often experienced with Vasquez and Williams running the show with the reserves. His 5.9 rebounds per 40 minutes last season might also be useful on a team that routinely got dominated on the boards last season.
In short, the Raptors ably replaced the very replaceable Vasquez with a player who addresses a need, while adding two extra draft picks to a growing collection of assets. Consider as well that the Raptors also have up to $22.4 million in free cap space this summer with Vasquez off the books and it’s hard not to see this selection as a win for Toronto.
Tyus Jones – Minnesota Timberwolves (Traded from Cleveland), 24th
Karl-Anthony Towns deservedly got the headlines as the first-overall pick on Thursday, but the Wolves’ trade-up with the Cavs to snag the 2015 NCAA Champion Jones should receive some praise as well.
With the selection, Minnesota’s under-the-radar depth of youth continues to grow, and the final piece of what could one day be a fantastic second unit is now in place. Jones, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad, Adreian Payne and Gorgui Dieng are a ready-made five-man unit that should be able to grow together and build chemistry over the course of their rookie-scale contracts. In time, the quintet could either be a deadly second unit, or its members may serve as trade chips should Minnesota want to add some higher-quality pieces to complement Andrew Wiggins and Towns as the team develops into a contender.
In the short term, Jones might have a very specific use next year in addition to manning the reserve group. Last season, the Wolves attempted just 14.9 three-pointers per contest, the fewest in the league. Part of that can probably be attributed to coach Flip Saunders’ old-school coaching style; but its not as if the Wolves roster was loaded with bona fide long-distance bombers. Kevin Martin and Shabazz Muhammad both shot 39 percent, but they also played just 39 and 38 games respectively due to injury. Wiggins’ shot is still a work in progress and Ricky Rubio has never had a reliable stroke. Jones, a 38 percent shooter in college, should bring some much needed three-point acumen as soon as next year.
It isn’t hard to imagine Jones – with the passing ability of Rubio and the supreme slashing of Wiggins – getting a boatload of spot-up opportunities should Saunders experiment with two point guard line-ups. Get excited, Minnesota.
Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors, 30th
Leave it to the champs to draft a 6’9, bouncy, rebound-snaring, 40+ percent three-point shooting power forward with one of the best value picks of the first round. A lot like Oubre, Looney suffered a precipitous fall from the upper reaches of mock drafts over the course of the year, even though he notched 15.0 points and 11.9 rebounds per 40 minutes in his freshman season at UCLA.
A lack of clarity regarding a hip injury that he may or may not be dealing with along with a status as a multi-year project player probably had a lot to do with Looney’s drop – but very few experts had the forward slipping outside of the top-20. If the Warriors brass could possibly get any giddier after winning the title, this pick certainly accomplished that. In time, with some proper development, Looney could turn into an ideal back-up option for Draymond Green, and allow Steve Kerr to lean even more heavily on the small ball style that was so crucial in Golden State’s triumph in the Finals.
Of course, Looney’s hip issues could be legitimate, and a million other things could go wrong as he attempts to reach his potential. But for an already loaded team, with a history of fostering improvement among its draftees, there’s a lot of reason to be excited about Looney if you’re a Dubs supporter. It’s the kind of lottery ticket that a title-winning franchise can live with; the kind that can help a great team become sustainably dominant.
