Can’t wait for the 2015-’16 season to start? We neither. Now that most of the off-season’s major moves are complete, we’ll dive into some ludicrously premature predictions for next season. Last week we attempted to predicts three of the major season-ending award winners: Sixth Man of the Year, Rookie of the Years and Defensive Player of the Year. This week, we’ll look at the other three pieces of individual hardware – Most Improved Player, Coach of the Year and MVP.
One of these awards is not like the other.
While the true meaning of the “V” in MVP is hotly contested on an annual basis, the award typically goes to the best and most season defining player in a given NBA year. The Coach of the Year and Most Improved Player awards on the other hand, don’t have a consistent criteria. There’s no stipulation that states whether Most Improved recognition should be given to a bad player who becomes decent, a good player who becomes great or a burgeoning star who explodes with the fury of a supernova. Just as confusingly, the Coach of the Year honor doesn’t automatically go to the coach of the team with the league’s best record – rather it tends to be given to coaches who accomplish something unexpected.
Because those awards are so vaguely described, it’s tough to get too heated in discussing them – arguments can usually be made for and against multiple winners each and every year. But in the case of the MVP, only a select one or two players even find themselves in the conversation come season’s end.
It’s a conversation that can get unnecessarily divisive. Fan tribalism often leads to the incorrect disparaging of the MVP contenders. As much as Rockets fans might not want to believe it, Steph Curry was a worthy MVP this season; conversely, James Harden was almost just as worthy – despite some sentiments probably suggesting he was nothing more than a bearded schlub off the street. Anyone seriously involved with in an MVP race is a fantastic player. And so is the guy projected to take it home this year.
Here’s a way-too-early prediction for who will take hom the Most Improved Player, Coach of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards this coming season.
Most Improved Player – Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Runners Up – Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves, C.J. McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers
All signs are pointing towards a monstrous breakout year for Andre Drummond. It would be understandable to think Drummond plateaued or even regressed somewhat in his third season last year. His excellent rebounding totals and scoring numbers experienced a slight boost (15.1 points and 14.7 rebounds per-36 in 2013-14, 16.3 and 15.9 last year). But his success rate on field goal attempts tumbled by 10 percentage points compared to his sophomore campaign, a drop compounded by his sub-40 percent free throw shooting. On top of that, a still-learning Drummond anchored a pedestrian Pistons defense that ranked 21st on a per-possession basis.
But things are different now. Detroit’s personnel is drastically changed from what it was this time last year, and the new roster construction should facilitate widespread improvement in the former ninth-overall pick’s game.
Drummond will have a full-season to work with point guard Reggie Jackson, whose arrival at the trade deadline seemed to signal a new beginning for the one-time UConn Husky.
| Andre Drummond |
GP |
PTS/36 |
REB/36 |
FG% |
| Pre-Jackson Trade |
54 |
15.3 |
15.6 |
50.0 |
| After-Jackson Trade |
28 |
17.9 |
16.3 |
53.6 |
Where Drummond and Jackson really clicked, was in the pick-and-roll – a connection that never existed when Brandon Jennings was healthy early in the season. In 41 games together, the ball-dominant Jennings assisted on just 44 Drummond field goals. Jackson linked up with his center a whopping 71 times in 28 contests. A full calendar year of the Pistons’ new one-five combo should yield some gussied up offensive numbers for Drummond.
Greg Monroe’s departure will also benefit Drummond. His replacements Ersan Ilyasova, Anthony Tolliver and Stanley Johnson will roam the perimeter more often than not in Stan Van Gundy’s system, acting as human Drain-O for Detroit’s once-clogged interior. That trio should also be capable of more dependable defense than Monroe could ever dream of providing, and will give the Pistons increased versatility next to Drummond.
If Drummond takes advantage of his vastly improved situation, he should leave little doubt as to which player took the biggest leap in 2015-’16.
Coach of the Year – Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
Runners Up – Alvin Gentry, New Orleans Pelicans; Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
As I mentioned last week, the Coach of the Year award rarely goes to the league’s best bench boss. That distinction has belonged to Gregg Popovich for a long time now. His ability to adapt his teams’ styles of play, his understanding of the value of resting his stars, and his knack for turning end-of-the-bench nobodies into highly sought-after commodities are unmatched around the NBA. Despite his team being a consistent power since Fight Club was in theaters, Pop has only been recognized three times as Coach of the Year.
This year could earn him his fourth plaque though, as he’ll have to make use of all of his coaching prowess with a new-look Spurs roster. San Antonio’s leading man will have to usher in a new era of Spurs hoops, re-working his offense around a volume mid-range shooter and post threat in LaMarcus Aldridge and a freshly maxed Kawhi Leonard who appears to want the responsibility of a number one option. Resting guys will have to be a regular occurrence this year too in order to keep the aging-but-effective trio of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker fresh for what could be their final playoff run together.
And with a healthy chunk of Popovich’s 2014-’15 bench now rolling in cash elsewhere, he’ll be charged with fostering growth in a new set of reserves that includes newcomers Ray McCallum and Jimmer Fredette and 2014 first-rounder Kyle Anderson.
If the Spurs end up playing like the unstoppable force many people are projecting them to be, Popovich, as usual, will have a lot to do with it.
Most Valuable Player – LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Runners Up – Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans; Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
From the outset, 2014-’15 felt like Steph Curry’s year. Golden State was a historically brilliant two way machine. And Curry demonstrated that he is the modern day superstar – a spindly, three-point sniper with a killer handle – the type of player that doesn’t have to rely on other-worldly athleticism to succeed. The narrative throughout the entire season seemed to be pointing to Curry being crowned MVP at season’s end.
Based on how he performed in the NBA Finals and how his team is positioned heading into this season, it feels like it’s time for LeBron James to reclaim the NBA’s top individual honor.
Things just look a lot clearer this year in Cleveland. Shawn Marion and Mike Miller aren’t going to be relied upon for any sort of contribution – let alone significant ones. Tristan Thompson’s contract negotiations are tenuous right now, but he’s proven his value as one of the linchpins of the Cavs’ defense. Kevin Love is back for the long haul, and with his full bank account should come a more prevalent role in David Blatt’s offense. And after LeBron’s 35.8 point, 13.3 rebound, 8.8 assist Finals showing left no doubt that, even after Curry and James Harden led the MVP race, James is still the best player on Earth. Kyrie Irving missing the first few weeks of the season should only amplify LeBron’s magnificence and get the MVP hype train chugging along.
The Eastern Conference should be improved top-to-almost-bottom, but if you’re placing bets on the Eastern Conference – take the MVP, not the field.
