Ricky Rubio’s stat line against Poland in the Eurobasket tournament has people buzzing, but for all the wrong reasons. No points, no assists, no rebounds. He did have two steals, but they were offset by two turnovers.
All-in-all, the numbers look really bad. I’m sure Minnesota Timberwolves fans are a little less than thrilled to see that out of a player that’s generated so much buzz around their team.
But stats can lie. And in this case, they did. Let’s look at the video.
First thing to note about Ricky and Spain is that he’s not starting for them. Jose Calderon started this game and played the bulk of the first half. Rubio didn’t see the court until the 3:39 mark of the first quarter. He immediately made an impact by stealing an inbounds pass, which led to an easy Spain basket.
His first opportunity to run the team came with 3:02 left in the first (20:25 mark in the video) and the play call was for Marc Gasol. Ricky gets the screen from Marc (a terrible one at that) and waits for Marc to set another screen (another terrible one at that). Ricky gives up the ball, goes to the corner, and he watches Marc toss up a terrible lefty jump hook.
I highlight that play simply because it’s indicative of Rubio’s role in this offense right now. In the half-court, Spain called set after set that called for the ball in the post. It’s not the style of play that will get anyone a ton of assists.
Ricky did have a chance for a highlight play at the 22:05 mark in the video. After a made basket by Poland, Ricky sees an opportunity, quickly calls for the ball, and launches a gorgeous 3/4 quart chest pass that should have been an assist.
At the end of the first quarter, Ricky launches a half-court shot. So that’s one miss that doesn’t matter.
Ricky’s first attempt at a drive comes at the 27:15 mark. His pass hits the under-side of the back board. Obviously a bad turnover. He jumped and got himself into trouble. I’m guessing he was expecting his teammate to seal his guy off down low so he could drop a little bounce pass for a lay up. Instead, his teammate just floated towards the middle of the lane. It’s a bad play by Rubio to jump and get himself in trouble. But it’s also poor recognition by his teammate. Rubio is going baseline and you have a chance to seal your guy off. In that situation, you HAVE to seal him off for a couple of reasons. (1) you might get the ball, you idiot. Don’t you want to score? Ricky’s a passer. Why don’t you want the ball? (2) Your guy can easily get in Ricky’s way, giving him no options. The more I look at that play, the more I’m dumbfounded by the lack of basketball IQ there.
Moving on to the second half
Ricky starts the second half and it’s more of the same. In the half court, he is just sort of there as Jose Calderon handles more of the “running the team” duties. It looks like Ricky will bring the ball up and then dump it off to Calderon to start sets. It doesn’t appear that Rubio has much wiggle room to freelance in this offense.
His first shot attempt comes at the 10:35 mark of the second video, or at about the 8:10 mark in the third quarter. It’s an open look from three after the ball is worked around. It’s not exactly a shot he’ll regularly hit. Here is what he should have done:
Instead of launching the shot in this situation, this was a great chance at some dribble penetration to open things up for his teammates. The two Polish defenders would almost certainly pinch to prevent a layup. That leaves a man open on the left corner and, if his teammate recognizes the play correctly, a guy in the right corner. The defender on the right wing has turned his face completely towards the play. He’s BEGGING to get burned. That man can go to the corner for 3, cut right behind him for possible lay up, or if the defense rotates, a dump off to Gasol in the lane.
Ricky needs to recognize these opportunities rather than lazily launch a shot that is out of his range. A couple of dribbles and the right recognition by the rest of the team easily creates three or four options that are much better than Ricky from 3. Bad play there that, we hope, will get corrected in a film session.
At the 16:15 mark, Ricky actually sets a decent pick in the lane to give a teammate, who is fouled on the play, a chance to get the shot off. Nice play that goes unrecognized in the box score.
At 37:45 (6:44 left in the 4th quarter), Rubio comes up with a nice steal, but his layup looks like it may have been deflected. I can’t criticize him on the angle he took because that’s where his momentum was headed, but he probably could have done more to angle his body, get a better angle off the backboard, or at least draw the foul. That’s something that will likely come with experience.
At 40:35, Ricky gets his next look at a 3. It starts a simple dribble hand-off, his man loses him, he goes to the corner and gets a wide-open look. It’s hard to find fault with this shot. When you’re that wide open, you have to shoot it. You can make the argument that he maybe could have tried a baseline drive, but you can’t pass up EVERY open shot. This one is fine with me.
Ricky gets another chance for his first basket at the 47:50 mark, but he misses the layup, again, while under pressure. This was a tough shot that he probably could have made easier on himself if he was a little more patient. Again, experience will tell him that an upfake in that situation, after some great ball movement, will get a defender up in the air. At that point, the defense had rotated a few times and they were being turned around by the nice passing. Defenders are anxious and eager to stop the ball. A quick fake would free up some space, and maybe get him a trip to the line.
Rubio’s next chance to do anything significant was using his speed and ballhandling ability to run out the clock at the end.
The final verdict: Ricky’s oh-fer stat line is misleading, and nowhere near an indication that he’ll be a flop in the NBA. I’m not going to sit here and tell you he had a great game, but he didn’t have a bad one. He was active on defense and he, quite simply, is not the half-court floor general on this team. His opportunities were few and far between, and the results of those opportunities will very likely be different with some time in the NBA to learn from a different group, and type, of players. In short, Ricky is a work in progress, which is something both he and his coach recognize.
So take heart, Timberwolves fans. The box score didn’t tell much of the story of this game at all. Ricky was active on the floor and played a very small role in the Spanish offense. But also, temper your expectations, TWolves fans, because Rubio probably won’t step right in and wow you, either. He’s going to make mistakes. He’s not even 21 yet, so he’s got plenty of time to grow as a player, and he will need it. I know what the YouTube mixes of his wild passes do to you. It’s very exciting. But don’t get caught up in them. This kid has got a lot of potential, but it’s still unrealized.
