The general narrative following Game 1 of the NBA Finals was that if the Golden State Warriors could beat the Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson scoring only 20 points combined, the Cavs stand no chance in this series.
I disagree.
Well, sort of.
I completely agree that the Cavs have no chance to win this series, and I’m starting to wonder if they’ll win a game. What I disagree with is the part about Steph and Klay.
It seems clear that Cleveland decided that it was not going to let Steph and Klay beat them. Congratulations, boys, you can check that box.
They obviously didn’t foresee (nor did anyone else) Shaun Livingston and Leandro Barbosa combining to go 13-for 15 from the floor, leading seven Warriors into double figures.
My guess is when they look at the video to break down Game 1, they’ll see that their strategy of selling out to stop Steph and Klay was sound. What they will also see is that they’re just not very good at it, at least not yet.
ABC did a very good job showing replays of situations where the Cavs got lost with the Warriors’ motion game, and had two or even three players running toward Curry and leaving someone open under the basket.
I think Cleveland’s only hope in this series is to take the many days off between games in this series (all breaks are two days except between Games 3 and 4) and work on this. The Cavs specifically need to work on showing and recovering. They have to learn who has what responsibilities in the pick and roll game.
If the Cavaliers start worrying about stopping Livingston and Barbosa, or even Harrison Barnes or Draymond Green, they’re really in trouble. They don’t have enough plus-defenders to guard all of the Warriors, so they’d better clamp down on the two guys who can each get 30 quick ones.
The breaking point in Game 1 came after the Cavaliers battled back in the third quarter to take a one-point lead after trailing by 14 in the first half. It was starting to resemble the third quarter of Game 1 of the Oklahoma City series, the game that cost the Warriors their home-court advantage and forced them to win that epic Game 6 on the road.
The problem for Cleveland was that it needed a few more stops at that point, and couldn’t get one.
Jun 2, 2016; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Leandro Barbosa (19) shoots the ball over Cleveland Cavaliers guard Matthew Dellavedova (8) during the second quarter in game one of the NBA Finals at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports ORG XMIT: USATSI-269454
With 4:21 left in the quarter, and the Warriors leading by one, ABC commentator and former Warrior coach Mark Jackson made a prescient statement: “This is a great opportunity for either of these teams to take over this basketball game.”
On the Cavs’ next possession, Kevin Love rebounded his own miss and laid it in to put Cleveland on top for the first time since the opening minutes, 64-63. The Warriors answered when Curry cut through the lane and James switched onto him, leaving Draymond Green alone under the hoop. Andre Iguodala whipped a one-handed pass to Green, and the Warriors led again.
Cleveland took the lead again on the next possession, on a pretty alley-oop from Matthew Dellavedova to Tristan Thompson, but Livingston got a wide-open 10-footer in the lane when two Cavs picked up a cutting Festus Ezeli (now you see how much work they need to do).
The Cavs took the lead for the last time when James drove to the basket, scoring with the left hand. After the teams traded misses, the Warriors regained the lead on a wide open putback by Livingston off a missed 3-pointer from Curry.
Three Cleveland baskets, three Golden State answers, each on a missed assignment. This is why I was so surprised to see that most ESPN and NBA.com analysts were predicting it would take six or seven games for the Warriors to win this series. Unless Cleveland plays out-of-body defense the rest of the way, the Cavs can’t score enough to keep up.
That’s because Cleveland also has some work to do on offense. Kevin Love had a solid game, and LeBron James was very active around the rim in the first half, but the “new” Cavs’ ball-movement offense didn’t make the trip to Oakland. Kyrie Irving had only four assists, and rarely put pressure on the Warriors’ defense to help off three-point shooters. The Warriors also threw some kryptonite at James in the person of Iguodala. Those two matched up on 22 Cleveland possessions, and James took only two shots, making one. James must figure out how to avoid being neutralized.
The good news for the Cavs is, as we always say after Game 1, “it only counts as one loss.” That’s true, and the Cavs need only one of these two games in Oakland to have a theoretical chance to win the series, but last year they lost Game 1 in overtime, not in the third quarter and early fourth. They’re going to have to make a quantum change on defense to have a chance in Game 2 this time around.
I’m sticking to my “Warriors in Five” prediction, because everybody plays better at home, but nothing I saw in Game 1 makes me think Cleveland can win this series.
