The loser of the Boston Celtics-Atlanta Hawks first-round series was always going to face an unpleasant offseason, but Mike Budenholzer is now in a position where failure could sting even more than previously imagined.
Playoff series acquire a given appearance on paper, but as soon as Game 1 unfolds, the context can — and often does — shift. The most relevant shift in Celtics-Hawks was the injury to Avery Bradley late in Game 1. Not only did the injury stop the Celtics’ typical second-half surge (more on that in a bit); it changed the rest of the series and clearly made the Hawks the favorite.
Moreover, with Kelly Olynyk barely able to play — 12 minutes in Game 1, and only four total minutes since — the Hawks really should be up 3-1 in this series. Boston is without two of its core performers in a series which has forced a third player, Jared Sullinger, off the floor. Sully can’t guard Paul Millsap, who recalled the memory of Dominique Wilkins with a luminous 45-point performance in Boston in Game 4 on Sunday evening.
The @ATLHawks get #NBAPlayoffs career-high 45 from @PaulMillsap4 in #HAWKSvCELTICS Game 4https://t.co/JH1u2Nabd3
— NBA (@NBA) April 25, 2016
This has been a fun series, easily the best of the first round. It has contained the most drama, the most plot twists, and it’s headed for a Game 6 at the very least. With at least four series almost certain to end in no more than five games, Celtics-Hawks has cut against that trend. Moreover, unlike the other 2-2 series in the East — Pacers-Raptors — most of the contests in Boston-Atlanta have been genuinely close. Indiana-Toronto is that kind of long series in which both teams win games, but none of them are particularly dramatic. Every bout is a second- or third-round knockout.
Celtics-Hawks has given all of us a needed splash of color in a dull and gray first round.
Yet, while we savor the delicious twists and turns provided by Boston and Atlanta, some serious business awaits for Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer. Within the changed context of this series, relative to when it began, it is that much more imperative for Bud to reach the second round. If he doesn’t, he’ll bear a large share of the blame for losing the series.
The threatening possibility: The Hawks must climb a very steep mountainside in future seasons, making it harder for this adorable little girl to view the future with optimism:
Let’s realize what’s going on with the Hawks: A 60-win team a season ago, the Hawks regressed this season by 12 games. Some regression was expected, and to be candid, Budenholzer helped his struggling team rescue the season. He did high-quality work after the All-Star break, though a Game 82 loss to the Washington Wizards cost his team the No. 3 seed and a chance to avoid the Cleveland Cavaliers until the Eastern Conference Finals.
It’s true that even if Atlanta beats Boston, an almost-certain exit at the hands of the Cavs awaits in round two. That being the case, why is this series so important? The answer is that after winning 60 a year ago and producing the most successful season in Atlanta Hawks history (not Hawks history — the franchise won it all in St. Louis in 1958), this core group has to remind itself that it can fight through difficulties in the postseason, just as it did in 2015 to make the Eastern Conference Finals, something no previous Atlanta team had ever done.
If the Hawks not only lose a first-round series, but one in which Bradley and Olynyk were hurt and Sullinger was rendered impotent, how are they going to trust themselves in future seasons?
How can a team trust itself when THIS happens at the end of Game 4, when the Hawks had their big chance to take full control of this series?
Hawks' Jeff Teague makes an absolute mess of final possesion in Game 4 vs. Celtics pic.twitter.com/KESiayyO53
— Ben Golliver (@BenGolliver) April 25, 2016
You will note that Teague didn’t do anything with the Kyle Korver action which was supposed to open up the play, and of course, Teague’s paralysis certainly affected the play’s ultimate outcome. Yet, with so much time on the clock, why did Millsap’s screen and Korver’s cut occur with roughly five seconds left, with Teague still far away from the basket?
Teague is hardly a blame-free figure here, to be sure, but if the Korver-Millsap action begins with seven seconds on the clock and not five, Teague would have had time to get around the corner on Isaiah Thomas. He had a clear driving lane to the basket. If the Celtics had collapsed to stop the drive, Millsap would have been open in the left corner, probably for a 17-footer near the baseline.
Yes, Teague didn’t really make any important move with the ball, and yes, a veteran point guard should know better. Budenholzer can’t be blamed for what his point guard did. However, the lack of initial off-ball action earlier on the shot clock certainly falls on the head coach, and when situations such as that one are mangled beyond belief, the memory can certainly linger in the minds of all the principals.
What might also linger in the minds of the Hawks from Game 4?
Try these questions:
Why did Al Horford not get more extended minutes? He played only 33 in regulation before going all five minutes in overtime.
Why did Dennis Schroder get so much playing time when he was clearly off his game? Teague might have messed up the final play of regulation, but he clearly ran Atlanta’s offense better than Schroder did. Somehow, Teague played only 29 minutes in regulation. If Schroder was playing well, sure, it would all make sense. Yet, Schroder was at his worst, and still received 20 minutes.
This is how the Hawks and Budenholzer responded to the absence of Avery Bradley?
It’s a credit to Brad Stevens that Boston can look so disheveled and chaotic on offense and yet piece together just enough production to win with an undermanned roster. When Marcus Smart rounds into form; the organization gets its hands on more high-end draft picks; and Danny Ainge makes an important free-agent acquisition or two, this team could become a top-tier contender in the East.
Yet, for all the verbal bouquets the Celtics do in fact deserve, a Boston win in this series would be so much more a negative commentary on Budenholzer, just one season after he earned the Coach of the Year Award by authoring a 22-game improvement relative to the 2015 season.
Moreover, in what might be a startling statement to make, that would be the least of Budenholzer’s problems.
Feb 24, 2016; Auburn Hills, MI, USA; Detroit Pistons head coach Stan Van Gundy reacts from the sidelines during the third quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
The Celtics are clearly on an upward trajectory in the East. So are the Detroit Pistons, being built the right way by Stan Van Gundy. They might have gotten swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they very nearly won three of the four games they lost in that series. The Washington Wizards, under Scott Brooks, should once again be a contender. Life in the East will get a lot tougher next year and the year after that.
The Hawks need to enter 2017 knowing they can take some punches in the playoffs — as was the case last season — and still survive at least one round if not two. If they can’t get past Boston, the wings and the backcourt will need to be evaluated. It would be hard to think the Hawks could keep their roster intact and expect to be a top-tier threat in the East.
This team — this organization — has to pull through in the coming weeks. Celtics-Hawks has been fun, and while an injured Boston team is basically playing with house money, knowing it is a more attractive landing spot for free agents, Atlanta must show that it can win a tough series it is nevertheless expected to take.
Mike Budenholzer has done a lot of good work in a short time in Atlanta, but after a poorly-coached Game 4, he and the Hawks face a momentous week. If a coach and his players don’t regroup, their reputations will suffer.
That’s what the playoffs do.
