The 10-game upset is a term which isn’t firmly embedded in your mind. This marks the perfect time to internalize the term, and to begin to absorb a specific part of NBA postseason history. The 10-game upset is something the Oklahoma City Thunder have already achieved in 2016, and will try to replicate in this upcoming Western Conference Finals series against the Golden State Warriors.
What is, pray tell, a “10-game upset?” Without any prolonged preambles and the fluffy prose contained within them, it’s not nearly as complicated or esoteric as it might sound: The 10-game upset is an instance of an NBA team winning a playoff series against an opponent which won 10 or more games in the regular season.
We are easily drawn to round numbers, which suggests that “10” might merely be a piece of numerical eye candy from a certain vantage point. However, 10 wins often (not always, but often enough to matter) separate good teams from great teams. A difference of 10 wins represents a change of 20 games relative to the .500 mark. It catches the eye in baseball’s 162-game schedule, and it stands out in basketball as well.
41 wins? You’re a break-even team.
51? You have home-court in the first round.
61? You’ll be a No. 1 seed most seasons, averaging just under four losses per month.
71? Two short of the 2016 Warriors.
Teams that forge playoff upsets against opponents with 10 or more wins have achieved something substantial.
As you’ll quickly see, the 2016 Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t entirely unique in their ability to register a perfect (upset of a) 10, but they are unique in one specific way.
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In this century, the NBA has witnessed six instances in which a 10-game upset occurred.
In 2014, the 47-win Golden State Warriors knocked out the 57-win Denver Nuggets, and a player named Andre Iguodala.
In 2012 — a 66-game season shortened by the 2011 NBA lockout — the 35-31 Philadelphia 76ers eliminated the 50-16 Chicago Bulls. You can asterisk that series because of the Derrick Rose injury, but give the Sixers credit for still being able to eclipse the other players on a No. 1 conference seed.
In 2010, the 50-win Boston Celtics outfoxed the 61-win Cleveland Cavaliers, the last time LeBron James did not make the NBA Finals.
In 2007, the 42-win Golden State Warriors stunned the 67-win Dallas Mavericks.
In 2006, the 52-win Miami Heat upended the 64-win Detroit Pistons. Among 10-win upsets this century, this is the only one (so far) which produced a championship team. The Heat followed this 10-game upset by beating the Mavericks in the 2006 NBA Finals.
Those five events preceded the 2016 Thunder’s ability to add their name to the roster of 10-game upset authors. OKC carried 55 wins into the West semifinals against the 67-win Spurs, and stopped San Antonio in six games.
One detail you can notice from each 21st-century edition of the “10-game upset” is that in two instances, a team with at least 67 wins was sent packing.
The only other time in NBA history when a team with 67 or more wins was victimized by the “10-game upset” came in 1973, when Red Holzman coached the 57-win New York Knicks to a series win over Tom Heinsohn and the 68-win Boston Celtics. The Knicks then won the 1973 title by beating the Los Angeles Lakers in the Finals.
It’s worth noting that among all NBA teams with 67 wins or more in the regular season, only three have failed to win the title. The 1973 Celtics were the first such team. The 2007 Mavericks were the second. The 2016 Spurs — just defeated by the Thunder — have become the third. All three teams were victims of the 10-game upset.
Oklahoma City has done something historically rare — in relationship to the 21st century, but also in relationship to 67-win teams throughout the NBA’s existence.
That’s pretty special on its own terms… but it’s not even the full story.
Among all the 10-game upsets this century — plus the 1973 Knicks over the Celtics — only the 2016 Thunder pulled off the feat with a coach who was completely new to the NBA.
The 2014 Warriors (Mark Jackson) had a coach who had spent a few previous seasons in the league. The 2006 Heat underwent a coaching change in the middle of their season, but the replacement coach was Pat Riley, definitely not a newcomer to NBA head coaching.
Oklahoma City is the first NBA team this century — and the first team ever pitted against a 67-win foe — to engineer the 10-game upset with a coach who entered the season with no prior NBA coaching experience of any kind.
Think the Thunder will be out of their depth against Golden State? Go ahead. Just realize that Oklahoma City and Billy Donovan just did something which is unprecedented in a few specific contexts.
