This is going to be a (relatively) short post, so no need to get too comfortable.
I’m really surprised by how many really smart basketball people are expecting the Warriors to take six or even seven games to win the 2016 NBA Finals.
I’ll take a few guesses at the reasoning behind that in a moment (see, it’s not going to be THAT short). First, I want to tell you why I would be shocked if that happens.
Have you ever driven someplace and gotten just a little lost? It used to happen regularly in the Pre-GPS days, but even now, I sometimes miss a turn or two and see an area of town with which I’m not familiar.
That describes the Warriors’ path to the Finals this year.
When they started in Houston a month and a half ago, a number of detours could not have been anticipated: the Curry injury, the second Curry injury, the difficulty putting away the Blazers, and the ferocity of the Thunder.
Yet the Warriors navigated all of those sharp turns, and while they arrived exactly where everyone (except Charles Barkley) expected them to be, in the Finals against Cleveland, their unexpected path has them even more battle-hardened than they were after their 73-9 regular season.
Don’t get me wrong about the Cavaliers. Their path to the Finals also took some unexpected turns, but they came during the regular season. The coaching change was certainly unexpected, but I think it’s the single biggest reason the Cavaliers are in the Finals again. Under David Blatt this team had a gaudy winning percentage, but its flaws were obvious, and things were not getting better. The overall weakness of the East allowed new head coach Tyronn Lue to work on defensive concepts and principles in actual games, something he never could have done if the Cavs were playing tough competition game after game.
Somewhere around playoff time, the Cavs realized that in certain circumstances, they could shoot the heck out of 3-point shots. The only problem with that is that the 3-point shot is the NBA’s crack cocaine. Once you have a good time with it, it’s really hard to put down.
In their two losses to Toronto, the Cavs shot a combined 27-for 82 on threes, which created a plethora of fast breaks and easy baskets for the Raptors.
I like what they’ve done in Cleveland, and I think the Cavs would be favored over all but three NBA teams in the Finals. It just that the Warriors aren’t one of those teams.
I understand that LeBron James is great. He has showed us that for years, and he certainly showed us that in the Finals last year. He has help on the offensive side of the ball this year in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, so James doesn’t have to dominate the ball. He also doesn’t need to shoot 3-pointers, a fading part of his skill set.
The Cavs’ problem is that as good as Irving and Love are on offense, they are both very poor defenders. Irving was 82nd among point guards in Defensive Plus/Minus during the regular season, and Love is annually among the worst defensive players in the game. They both played better defense in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but it has to be considered that Detroit and Atlanta don’t have anywhere near the offensive weapons the Warriors have.
I just don’t see whom Love and Irving can guard on the Warriors. Even if there is someone you can put them on, like Harrison Barnes or Andre Iguodala (players for whom the Warriors don’t usually run plays), they are one pick-and-roll switch from guarding Steph Curry in space, which will not end well.
I wonder if all of these NBA experts, both on NBA.com and on ESPN, are reluctant to call the Warriors in five games because of their respect for LeBron James. I’ve heard a couple of analysts say that they think he can win a couple of games by himself; therefore they say Warriors in six.
I give him one game. It might even be the first game. Cleveland’s been off longer than the Warriors, and they have an emotional revenge factor working here. Plus, it always seems to take the Warriors some time to get the feel of any playoff matchup. Once they do, it’s all over.
So here’s one non-expert who’s willing to say: Warriors in Five, and it won’t be like a Portland Five. It will be like a Houston Five.
I can’t wait to find out.
