By its very nature, Game 7 is a crapshoot.
Six battles, six episodes of jousting and probing and punching and counterpunching, give way to a single theater of events, one isolated thrill ride of 2.5 hours in which percentages and laws of averages don’t mean very much.
The finality of a Game 7 — in which elimination and advancement are shared possibilities for both teams — reduces the NBA playoffs to the NCAA tournament, with the obvious difference being that the two opponents had 12 days in which to settle the issue, but couldn’t.
Yet, how much does that difference really matter now, especially in a series which is “scoreboard-close” (3-3) but situationally lopsided?
Five of the six previous games in this series — following Indiana’s 101-83 blowout win in Game 6 on Friday night — have been decided by a double-figure margin. The only game which wasn’t — Game 5 — was a 13-point game entering the fourth quarter, and an all-time gack attack by the Pacers (9 points in the final quarter, with 6 turnovers) is what ultimately created the close margin.
This series began as a fragile organism, and it has stayed that way, even as these teams traded punches every two or three days. Neither team has what one could call a comfort zone, because as soon as one team plays well for a few quarters, it loses its footing.
Game 3 marked the last time the Raptors have played at least two strong quarters in the same game. No, the second quarter of Game 6 was not a strong quarter — not when the Raptors failed to create separation from an Indiana team with a struggling Paul George, who made just one field goal in the first half on Friday night.
The Pacers have played far better than the Raptors over the past three games — encompassing 12 quarters — but their fourth quarter in Game 5 was so spectacularly awful (and costly) that they still have a series to play, instead of making hotel reservations for Charlotte or Miami.
These two teams remain in search of themselves as they prepare for Sunday night’s climactic duel in Toronto. The loser will search for answers throughout a miserable offseason — answers which most centrally pertain to the chase for an ever-elusive consistency in this series.
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The Pacers and Raptors have played 24 quarters apiece to arrive at this Game 7 moment of truth. Of those 24 quarters, the number in which both clubs played well can be counted with one hand. The most consistent shooters for Toronto in this series have been Cory Joseph and Jonas Valanciunas, and neither man qualifies as a volume shooter (loosely defined as a player who will consistently shoot 10 or more times per game). Indiana’s most reliable shooter the past few games has been Solomon Hill.
Paul George has been the best player in this series, and his 39-point, 11-of-19 work of art in Game 5 is the single-game masterpiece of Pacers-Raptors, but he hasn’t shot the ball consistently well in this series. He’ll touch the clouds in a transcendent performance, and then his shooting percentage will dip into the mid-30s the next night. Even with George, Indiana is living on the ledge in this series. George has to put forth so much energy to wrap up DeMar DeRozan on defense (which he’s accomplished with great skill) that the quality of his jump shooting can’t be taken for granted.
Speaking of jump shooting, however, Toronto faces the more alarming situation heading into Sunday night:
Uh oh. (via @bruce_arthur) pic.twitter.com/J5LkSUvcZp
— John Gaudes (@johngaudes) April 30, 2016
The Lowry lowdown is concerning enough for Toronto, but one must then consider the DeRozan angle, which receives further treatment in the link provided below:
I wrote about how Dwane Casey is chaining his fate to DeRozan. I don't actually want it to happen. https://t.co/0MWK6uSFVT
— William Lou (@william_lou) April 30, 2016
If there’s a single beyond-obvious key to Game 7 — at the end of a series in which few games have been close, and neither team remains comfortable for very long — one of the better answers is the free-throw line.
Both teams need to get there, and what’s more is that each side’s more formidable offensive players have been able to get there in one of the past two contests.
In Game 5, DeRozan and Lowry earned a combined 21 free throws, making 19. Toronto won.
In Game 6, Paul George and George Hill earned a combined 18 foul shots, making 17. Indiana won.
If jumpers can’t be trusted — this is especially the case for the Raptors — free throws offer the best solution to offensive woes in the face of excruciating Game 7 pressure. The big men in this series — Valanciunas for Toronto, Myles Turner and Ian Mahinmi for Indiana — have often struggled with foul trouble. Unnecessary reaches in some cases, weak foul calls in others, it doesn’t matter — earned or not, fouls have played a role not only in shifting rotations on the floor, but in giving these teams comparatively easier points at important times.
Keep this in mind about the free-throw battle: It was extremely close in Game 6 in terms of attempts (26-25 for Indiana), but the Pacers got 18 foul shots from Paul George and George Hill, two guys they want to have at the line. The Lowry-DeRozan combo, by contrast, attempted only four foul shots.
In Game 5, Lowry and DeRozan collected 21 shots compared to 13 for PG and Hill. In many ways, the outcome was a 2-to-1 creation. George earned 12 free throws (making all of them), but Hill got to the line only once. DeRozan made 13 trips to the charity stripe, Lowry 8. Hill was the odd man out in that quartet.
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It’s true that in the crapshoot which is Game 7, anything can — and will — happen. Percentages have been known to be tossed aside in this special furnace of withering do-or-die intensity. Yet, if the Pacers and Raptors want to avoid a sleepless offseason in which they lament how this series eluded their grasp, their best bet is to promote the percentages, and make the trek to the free throw line… especially with their best scorers holding the rock.
