Raptors-Wizards: The Taming of Valanciunas, By Gortat and Nene

The Washington Wizards have done a lot of things right during their two-game obliteration of the Toronto Raptors.

John Wall has been a monster in transition, picking apart Toronto’s defense en route to averaging 12.5 assists per game. With some beefy minutes totals, Otto Porter has emerged as a legitimate NBA player. Bradley Beal shook off a rough Game 1 outing in Game 2 — he demolished the Raptors’ hapless perimeter defenders in Tuesday night’s blowout win.

In the category of unsung heroes, though, you can insert the Wizards’ pair of bruising starting big men, Marcin Gortat and Nene. Amidst the calls for Randy Wittman to limit the duo’s playing time and place Paul Pierce at the four, Gortat and Nene have responded by quietly but effectively eliminating one of the surest things in Toronto’s top-five offense: Jonas Valanciunas’ scoring in the post.

This season has been a weird one for the Raptors’ Lithuanian seven-footer. Dwane Casey has been hesitant to play his third-year centre (it’s Toronto, so we’re allowing the Canadian spelling of “centre” here…) late in close contests — even when he has posted stellar numbers in the early stages of games. Despite Casey’s reluctance to trust him, all signs have pointed towards Valanciunas making significant strides in his overall game in 2014-’15. His defense is still open to questioning, but his defensive rating steadily improved over the course of the season, as he flashed a growing ability to defend the rim.

What really stood out however, was his refinement as a low-post offensive threat. His numbers on post-ups (according to NBA.com’s Synergy data) were remarkable. He was efficient, scoring 1.02 points per possession on post-up plays, a figure that looks ultra-impressive when compared to his competition. Among the players Valanciunas eclipsed in terms of scoring efficiency on such plays: LaMarcus Aldridge (0.96 PPP), Zach Randolph (0.91), DeMarcus Cousins (0.87), Blake Griffin (0.95), and Anthony Davis (0.85), to name only a few. In fact, Valanciunas led all players with 140 or more post-up possessions in scoring efficiency.

His highlight reel from an early-season game against Phoenix showed off the array of ways Valanciunas can score when he establishes deep position. Most notably, watch for the play around 1:15 where he displays his bread and butter offensive move:

Courtesy NBA on YouTube

That move, where Valanciunas powerfully backs down his man from the left (or right) block before putting up a driving hook shot, became a common occurrence this season. For the most part, he bludgeoned his opponents like a ruthless teen at an amusement park, unexpectedly ramming his bumper car into the side of an unwitting child’s car.

That’s changed in the playoffs. In the opening two games of the Raptors-Wizards series, Gortat and Nene have assumed the role of that unsuspecting child’s older brothers, meeting the physicality of Valanciunas head on… and coming out on top.

Through the first two games, Valanciunas has had his post-up game almost completely neutralized by Washington’s brutish combo of bigs. Upon reviewing the video of each of Valanciunas’ baskets in the series, here’s the breakdown of where he is scoring his points:

Valanciunas has posted up a mere six times in the opening two contests with the Wizards, and he has faced stout defense nearly every time he has done so. On his four misses on post-up plays, Gortat (twice) and Nene (twice) denied Valanciunas entry into the middle of the paint and forced him to put up uncomfortable looking pseudo-hook shots. For example, here is the opening possession of Game 2. Valanciunas tries to back down Gortat, but the Polish Hammer’s strength allows him to force Valanciunas into an awkward shot from the top half of the key, which came up well short.

Courtesy NBA

Courtesy NBA

Valanciunas has consistently faced this sort of defense from Gortat and Nene thus far, and it has helped contribute to his underwhelming 44.4-percent clip from the field. This represents a marked decline from his 57.2-percent rate in the regular season, second among qualified players behind DeAndre Jordan. Even when Valanciunas has found success in the post, it hasn’t come easily. One instance in Game 2 saw Gortat do almost the exact same thing to Valanciunas as depicted above, only for the Lithuanian to get a lucky roll on an off-balance shot.

Nothing has been easy for Toronto’s big man down low against the Wizards. Typically, that would not be a major problem for the perimeter-focused Raptors, but with Lou Williams’ poor shooting in the series (9-29 FG, 2-12 on 3-pointers), Kyle Lowry’s depreciation due to injury, and DeMar DeRozan’s free-throw attempts drying up (4.0/game in playoffs; 7.2 in regular season), the Raptors could use the easy points that Valanciunas usually provides.

Thanks to Gortat and Nene, those buckets don’t appear to be on the horizon, and it will be on the Raptors’ gunners on the outside to carry the team back into the series as it shifts to D.C. for the weekend. If they don’t, and their output remains consistent with the opening games of the playoffs, we may not get to visit Jurassic Park again this year.

(Stats Courtesy NBA.com/stats)